MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Confirms Important Technical Break

Price Signal Summary – AUD Confirms Important Technical Break

• The primary trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract has continued to deliver fresh highs recently and maintains a bullish tone following last week’s gains. EUROSTOXX 50 futures failed to hang on to yesterday’s gains and moved back into its recent range. A bullish theme remains in place and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3869.80. This average represents an important resistance and if cleared, would further strengthen a bullish short-term theme.
• EURUSD still appears vulnerable, following the recent move lower from 1.1137, the Mar 17 high. Recent price action challenged resistance at 1.1121, Jan 28 low and the Mar 10 high, but failed to confirm a clear break of this hurdle. USDJPY bulls remain in charge and the pair has traded to a fresh cycle high once again today. The USD has this week cleared the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high and traded through the psychological 120.00 handle. The AUDUSD outlook strengthened into the Wednesday close, with the pair showing at new YTD and multi-month highs. This week’s important technical break has been the move above 0.7441, the Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low.
• Gold is unchanged and continues to consolidate. The short-term outlook remains bearish though following the recent pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. WTI futures have traded to a fresh short-term high again today marking an extension of the recovery from $92.20, the Mar 15 low. The recent reversal means the 50-day EMA, at $94.63 today, remains intact and that this average also provided a firm short-term support.
• Bunds remain in a downtrend. The contract has traded through last week’s low of 161.56. The break lower has also resulted in a move through the psychological 160.00 handle. Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bearish following recent weakness and the extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of key support at 121.10, the Feb 6 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1232 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1173/1222 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1137 High Mar 17 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.0979 @ 06:05 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.0961 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD still appears vulnerable, following the recent move lower from 1.1137, the Mar 17 high. Recent price action challenged resistance at 1.1121, Jan 28 low and the Mar 10 high, but failed to confirm a clear break of this hurdle. This has reinforced bearish conditions and note that the primary trend remains down. Further weakness would open 1.0890, the Mar 9 low and 1.0806, Mar 7 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1137.

GBPUSD TECHS: Recovery Fades Ahead Of The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3492 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.3343 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3298 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 1.3190 @ 06:27 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.3120/3000 Low Mar 22 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD failed to hold on to Wednesday’s high and closed down on the day. This week’s break of the 20-day EMA and the 1.0% 10-dma envelope (at 1.3257) is a positive development however, a key resistance at 1.3343, remains intact. Clearance of this average is required to further strengthen short-term bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is seen at 1.3120, Tuesday’s low.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/8535 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8374/8458 High Mar 22 / Mar 17 High
• PRICE: 0.8324 @ 06:31 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 0.8296 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

This week’s move lower in EURGBP threatens the recent bullish theme and exposes support at 0.8278, the Mar 7 low. A break of this support would highlight a stronger bearish reversal and expose key short-term support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 low. The cross is also trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. A recovery would refocus attention on 0.8458, Mar 17 high, where a break is required to resume the recent upleg.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 124.63 High Aug 13 2015
• RES 3: 123.76 High Nov 18 2015
• RES 2: 122.47 2.382 projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 121.75/122.00 Intraday high / Round number resistance
• PRICE: 121.63 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 119.04/ Low Mar 21 / 118.18 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 117.74/28 20-day EMA / Low Mar 14
• SUP 4: 116.35 High Jan 4

USDJPY bulls remain in charge and the pair has traded to a fresh cycle high once again today. The USD has this week cleared the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high and traded through the psychological 120.00 handle. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and strengthened bullish conditions. 121.69, the Jan 29 2016 high has been probed and attention turns to 122.00. Initial support is seen at 120.00.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Gains

• RES 4: 135.85 High Feb 7 2018
• RES 3: 134.62 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 134.13 High Jun 1 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 133.89 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 133.42 @ 06:43 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 131.59 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 130.72 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 130.25 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 129.60 50-day EMA

EURJPY is bullish and traded higher once again Wednesday. The cross has topped the bull trigger at the Feb 10 high of 133.15. This has strengthened the near-term bullish outlook and delivered fresh YTD highs. Upside targets shift higher to 134.13, the Jun 1 2021 high and a major resistance plus the 3.0% 10-dma envelope of 134.62. Price action also remains above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Initial firm support is seen at 131.59, Tuesday’s low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6 2021
• RES 3: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7507 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 0.7485 @ 06:48 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 0.7361 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 0.7325/7262 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.7095 Low Feb 24

The AUDUSD outlook strengthened into the Wednesday close, with the pair showing at new YTD and multi-month highs. This week’s important technical break has been the move above 0.7441, the Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This reinforces the current bull cycle that started Jan 28. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7361.

USDCAD TECHS: Probes The 76.4% Retracement

• RES 4: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 3: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2778 High Mar 16
• RES 1: 1.2697 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2578 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 1.2547/42 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 3: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021

USDCAD traded to a new cycle low Wednesday, extending the recent spell of weakness through 1.2552, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally and a key short-term support. The print below this former support signals scope for an extension lower and the focus is on the Jan 21 low of 1.2499. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 1.2684, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would ease current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 163.20 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 162.35 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 160.56/162.05 Low Mar 16 / High Mar 15
• PRICE: 159.92 @ 05:03 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 159.06 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 158.84 Low Oct 22 2018 (cont)
• SUP 3: 157.92 150.0% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 157.33 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)

Bunds remain in a downtrend. The contract has traded through last week’s low of 161.56. The break lower has also resulted in a move through the psychological 160.00 handle. The continuation lower confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. The focus is on 158.84, the Oct 22 2018 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 162.05.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 132.370 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 131.550 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 131.081 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.300 Low Mar 16
• PRICE: 129.970 @ 05:02 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 129.544 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 2: 129.008 138.2% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 3: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 128.340 Low Sep 17 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures are trading near recent lows and remain vulnerable. The contract has traded through last week’s low of 130.300 (Mar 16). This has confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break lower paves the way for a move towards 129.544 next, the 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg. The 20-day EMA at 131.081 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 111.740 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 111.560 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 111.405 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 111.205 Low Mar 16 and high Mar 22
• PRICE: 111.105 @ 04:49 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 111.050 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 111.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 110.602 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2020 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 110.590 Low Jun 10/11 2014 (cont)

Schatz futures remain bearish. The move lower this week strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend plus marks an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break lower paves the way for a move towards 111.000 and 111.065. The latter is the Jun 5 2015 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.405.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 120.98 @ Close Mar 23
• SUP 1: 120.29 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bearish following recent weakness and the extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of key support at 121.10, the Feb 6 low. This marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and opens 120.00. Recent short-term gains were considered corrective and price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Following Breach Of Support

• RES 4: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 143.85 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• RES 1: 140.66 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.78 @ Close Mar 23
• SUP 1: 137.94 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 136.86 Low May 13 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.13 61.8% retracement of the Mar ‘19 - Aug ‘21 bull cycle

BTP futures remain vulnerable. The contract has traded lower this week and cleared key support at 138.60, the Feb 16 low and a bear trigger. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and highlights an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 137.52, the May 18 2020 low on the continuation chart. Resistance is seen at 140.66, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Outlook Remains Positive Near-Term

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4514.75 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4461.50 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 4361.23 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)

The primary trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract has continued to deliver fresh highs recently and maintains a bullish tone following last week’s gains. The contract has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the latter average is an important short-term bullish development and an extension would open 4578.50, the Feb 9 high. Initial support is at 4361.23, the 20-day EMA.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Monitoring The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3965.50 High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3869.80 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3879.80 @ 05:37 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 3555.50 Low Mar 15 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures failed to hang on to yesterday’s gains and moved back into its recent range. A bullish theme remains in place and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3869.80. This average represents an important resistance and if cleared, would further strengthen a bullish short-term theme. Support to watch lies at 3555.50 Mar 15 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Heading North

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $133.15 - High Mar 8
• RES 2: $129.17 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $123.74 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $120.29 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $108.26 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $99.32/96.93 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures maintain a firmer tone and have traded to a fresh trend high today. The contract has recently remained above key support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at $99.32 today. Price has cleared resistance at 113.91, Mar 11 high and the break has strengthened bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger short-term climb towards 129.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would reinstate a bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: $126.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $116.64 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $113.53 @ 07:04 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $102.83 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $94.63/92.20 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures have traded to a fresh short-term high again today marking an extension of the recovery from $92.20, the Mar 15 low. The recent reversal means the 50-day EMA, at $94.63 today, remains intact and that this average also provided a firm short-term support last week. A continuation higher would open 118.34, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the downside, a breach of the 50-day EMA would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1954.7 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $1941.2 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $1897.2/95.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low feb 11

Gold is unchanged and continues to consolidate. The short-term outlook remains bearish though following the recent pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1897.2, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, an initial firm short-term resistance is seen at $2009.2, Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.098 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: $24.383 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $24.354 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863 - Low Feb 11

Silver is consolidating. The metal remains in an uptrend, however, the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play and potential is seen for a deeper short-term pullback. The metal has traded below the 20-day EMA and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 24.383. This EMA marks an important support. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.