MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Uptrend Extends

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Uptrend Extends

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday and breached resistance at 4035.25, the Jan 17 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and resumes short-term bullish conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and this reinforces current trend conditions. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above support at 4097.00, the Jan 19 low. The trend outlook is bullish, however, the cycle is overbought and this continues to warn of the potential for a short-term corrective pullback.
• GBPUSD has pulled back from recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective. A broader bullish structure remains intact and moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. USDJPY is unchanged. Trend conditions remain bearish and the pair is trading below 131.58, the Jan 18 high and the 20-day EMA, at 130.90. Recent activity still appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the downtrend. AUDUSD has traded higher today and in the process cleared resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. This confirms an extension of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded higher Monday but the contract has pulled back from its recent highs. Key short-term resistance is located at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent bullish theme and expose $83.14, the Dec 1 high.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The latest pullback is likely a correction and the contract remains above support. Recent trend highs confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and this maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures remain in an uptrend. Recent trend highs have confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 1.1054 High Apr 4 2022
• RES 3: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 1: 1.0927 High Jan 23
• PRICE: 1.0895 @ 05:33 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 1.0767/54 Low Jan 18 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0582/1.0484 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 1.0410 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURUSD remains in an uptrend and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. A fresh high print Monday maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. Sights are on 1.0954, the Apr 11 2022 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 1.0754. A break of the average would signal the start of a correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Below Monday’s High

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2448 High Jan 23
• PRICE: 1.2322 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 1.2264 Low Jan 24
• SUP 2: 1.2226/2083 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.2081 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD has pulled back from recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective. A broader bullish structure remains intact and moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. Earlier this week, price pierced resistance at 1.2446, Dec 14 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late September 2022 and open 1.2506, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 1.2226, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8847/97 High Jan 24 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8843 @ 06:37 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 0.8796/22 Low Jan 24 / 19
• SUP 2: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 0.8630 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Jan 13 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday and the cross is holding on to this week's gains. A continuation higher would expose resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bearish threat and instead resume an uptrend that started early December. Key support has been defined at 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 3: 134.12 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 130.90/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 130.31 @ 06:46 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY is unchanged. Trend conditions remain bearish and the pair is trading below 131.58, the Jan 18 high and the 20-day EMA, at 130.90. Recent activity still appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the downtrend. A break lower would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, Jan 16 low. On the upside, clearance of 131.58 would be a bullish development and signal scope for a stronger correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 142.30 Intraday high
• PRICE: 142.17 @ 06:55 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 140.47/137.92 Low Jan 23 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY is trading firmer again today as the cross extends the bounce from last week’s low of 137.92 on Jan 19. The 50-day EMA, at 141.78, has been pierced and a clear break would expose key short-term resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. The broader trend direction is down. A reversal would again refocus attention on the bear trigger at 137.39, the Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7175 1.764 proj of the NOv 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7137 High Aug 11 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7123 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7104 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 0.6994/6906 Low Nov 23 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6802 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support

AUDUSD has traded higher today and in the process cleared resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on the next key resistance at 0.7137, the Aug 11 high where a break would strengthen underlying bullish conditions. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA - it intersects at 0.6906.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3452/3521 20-day EMA / High Jan 19
• PRICE: 1.3367 @ 08:00 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 1.3342 Low Jan 23
• SUP 2: 1.3322 Low Jan 13
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD is unchanged and continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A bearish threat remains present. This follows the pullback from 1.3521 last week, the Jan 19 high. A continuation lower would expose support at 1.3322, the Jan 13 low, where a break would signal scope for an extension towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, the pair needs to break above 1.3521 to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 142.91 High Dec 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.55 High Dec 8
• RES 2: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 139.55/140.73 High Jan 20 / 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 138.38 @ 05:03 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 137.53 Low Jan 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 136.46 Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: 136.04 Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The latest pullback is likely a correction and the contract remains above support. Recent trend highs confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and this maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 141.70, the Dec 13 high. Initial firm support is at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. A break would threaten the bullish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Testing Support

• RES 4: 119.490 High Dec 13
• RES 3: 119.310 High Dec 14
• RES 2: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 118.240/880 High Jan 20 / 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 117.790 @ 05:05 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 117.510 Low Jan 23 / 24
• SUP 2: 117.170 Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: 116.950 Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: 116.740 Low Jan 6

Bobl futures remain in a S/T corrective cycle and the contract has tested support at 117.560, Jan 16 low. The primary trend condition remains bullish. Recent gains reinforce a positive outlook and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of strength would open 119.086, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear break of 117.560 support would undermine the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 106.517 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.370 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.955/106.155 High Jan 20 / 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.865 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Jan 23
• SUP 2: 105.735 Low Jan 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.375 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 105.625 Low Jan 10

Schatz futures trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains reinforced a bullish theme and signals potential for a climb towards 106.296, 61.8% of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg. On the downside, the firm support to watch lies at 105.735, the Jan 16 low. A break would alter the picture and instead signal potential for a deeper retracement.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 105.71 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 104.84 @ Close Jan 24
• SUP 1: 103.54 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 103.21/102.78 Low Jan 17 and key S/T support / High Jan 6
• SUP 3: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 4: 99.97 Low Jan 3

Gilt futures remain in an uptrend. Recent trend highs have confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. This signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 103.21, the Jan 17 low. A break would threaten the recent recovery.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 120.73 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 12 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.96 High Dec 7 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.53/118.56 High Jan 20 / 19
• PRICE: 116.17 @ Close Jan 24
• SUP 1: 114.88 Low Jan 121
• SUP 2: 114.59/46 20-day EMA / Low Jan 16
• SUP 3: 113.50 Low Nov 11
• SUP 4: 111.59 Low Jan 6

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains reinforce the short-term bullish condition and scope is seen for a test of key resistance at 118.96, the Dec 7 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 114.46, the Jan 16 low. A break would alter the picture.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Trend Condition Is Overbought

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4206.00 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4151.00 @ 05:46 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 4097.00/67.20 Low jan 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3948.90 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3720.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above support at 4097.00, the Jan 19 low. The trend outlook is bullish, however, the cycle is overbought and this continues to warn of the potential for a short-term corrective pullback. A move lower would allow the overbought reading to unwind and open 4067.20, the 20-day EMA and a key near-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4090.75 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 4056.75 High Jan 23
• PRICE: 4018.25 @ 07:01 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: 3901.75/3891.50 Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend

S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday and breached resistance at 4035.25, the Jan 17 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and resumes short-term bullish conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and this reinforces current trend conditions. The focus is on 4090.75 - last seen in mid-December. Key short-term support lies at 3901.75, the Jan 19 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $93.97 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $92.43 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $91.39 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 1: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• PRICE: $86.60 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: $84.27/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded higher Monday but the contract has since pulled back from this week’s high. The recent move through resistance at $87.85, the Jan 18 high, cancels a recent bearish threat and attention turns to $89.18, the Dec 1 high. A break of this level would strengthen the case for bulls and pave the way for a climb towards $90.49, the Nov 17 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at $84.27, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.66 - High Jan 18
• PRICE: $80.25 @ 07:12 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: $78.45/72.74 - Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Monday but the contract has pulled back from its recent highs. Key short-term resistance is located at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent bullish theme and expose $83.14, the Dec 1 high and $85.33, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $78.45, the Jan 19 low. A break of this level would signal a potential reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1942.5 - High Jan 24
• PRICE: $1932.4 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: $1896.7/84.1 - Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. This confirms an extension of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1963.0 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at $1884.1, the 20-day EMA. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.552 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 25
• SUP 1: $22.911 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver is trading in a range. The trend direction remains up and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.