MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Cycle for Bunds

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle for Bunds

• S&P E-Minis traded lower Monday and this confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. The move down has resulted in a print below 5185.50, 76.4% of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 5092.00 next, the May 2 low. A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday, reinforcing current conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. 
• GBPUSD remains in bear-mode condition and is trading lower today. The move down this month has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and a trendline - at 1.2783 - drawn from the Apr 22 low.USDJPY remains bearish and the recent impulsive sell-off has reinforced this condition. The move down paves the way for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact. However, from a short-term perspective, a corrective cycle is in play and the pair continues to appreciate this week. Price is through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 0.6616.
• Recent weakness in Gold appears to be a correction. Note that the yellow metal has managed to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - currently at $2377.6. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4. A bear threat in WTI futures remains present despite this week’s recovery - a correction. Short-term gains are allowing an oversold condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would again expose the next key support at $72.23, the Jun 4 low.
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and recent gains reinforce the current trend condition. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position. Recent gains in Gilt futures marked a confirmation of the uptrend that started May 29. Monday's high reinforces current conditions. Note that 99.23, the Jun 21 peak, has been cleared.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Conditions Remain Intact  

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 29 ‘ 23 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1084  High Dec 29
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.1012 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Apr 16 downleg
• PRICE: 1.0920 @ 06:01 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 1.0871 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0837 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

EURUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. A bull theme is intact following recent gains and the break of key short-term resistance at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1012 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.0778, Aug 1 low. A pullback would be considered corrective. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0871, the 20-day EMA.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Leg Extends    

• RES 4: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 1.2968 High Jul 19 
• RES 2: 1.2938 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 1.2811 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2697 @ 06:02 BST Aug 8
• SUP 1:1.2665 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2584 50.0 retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2510 Low May 14 

GBPUSD remains in bear-mode condition and is trading lower today. The move down this month has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and a trendline - at 1.2783 - drawn from the Apr 22 low. The clear break of the EMA and the trendline, suggests scope for a test of 1.2672 next, a Fibonacci projection. This level has been pierced, a  clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. Initial resistance is at 1.2811, the 20-day EMA.         

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction                             

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28    
• RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8625 High AUg 8
• PRICE: 0.85664 @ 06:13 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 0.8517 Low Aug 5  
• SUP 2: 0.8490 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8480 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and Thursday’s pullback appears to be a correction. The latest rally has resulted in the break of a number of key resistance points, cancelling a recent bearish theme and highlighting potential for 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8480, the 50-day EMA. First support lies at 0.8517, the Aug 5 low. A retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind.    

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce     

• RES 4: 154.52 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 151.57 20-day EMA  
• RES 2: 149.77 High Aug 2    
• RES 1: 147.90 High Aug 7   
• PRICE: 146.94 @ 06:41 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 / Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: 140.25 Low Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number 
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY remains bearish and the recent impulsive sell-off has reinforced this condition. The move down paves the way for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the bear trend remains in an extreme oversold condition, and the latest recovery - a correction - is allowing this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 151.57, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 141.70, the Aug 5 low.  

EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish      

• RES 4: 167.44 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 164.75 20-day EMA    
• RES 2: 162.89 High Aug 1       
• RES 1: 161.59 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 160.56 @ 06:54 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 157.30 / 154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 
• SUP 2: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23 
• SUP 3: 153.23  Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 ‘23

EURJPY traded sharply lower Monday marking an extension of the current impulsive bear cycle, before recovering from the session low. The move down opens the next key support at 153.23, the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A break of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the cross remains in an extreme oversold position. A stronger recovery would allow this to unwind. Initial resistance is seen at 161.59, the Aug 2 high.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends  

• RES 4: 0.6744 High Jul 18     
• RES 3: 0.6693 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg                 
• RES 2: 0.6646 High Jul 23  
• RES 1: 0.6616 50-day EMA   
• PRICE: 0.6602 @ 08:01 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 0.6472/6350 Low Aug 6 / 5 
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23   
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23   
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support  

A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact. However, from a short-term perspective, a corrective cycle is in play and the pair continues to appreciate this week. Price is through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 0.6616. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for stronger gains. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on the Aug 5 low and bear trigger, at 0.6350.     

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020 
• RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022   
• RES 1: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 
• PRICE: 1.3726 @ 08:06 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 1.3731/18 50-day EMA / Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3657 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3547 Low Apr 9 

Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. A key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high, has been cleared. This signals scope for 1.3977, the Oct 13 ‘22 high. Near-term, the pair has pulled back from Monday’s high. A move lower appears to be a correction and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The 50-day EMA, at 1.3731, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 1.3657, the Jul 17 low. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 137.26 3.50 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing         
• RES 3: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 2: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 134.84/136.28 High Aug 7 / 5                      
• PRICE: 134.32 @ 05:41 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 133.77 Low Aug 1           
• SUP 2: 133.41 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 132.58/131.62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and recent gains reinforce the current trend condition. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract remains below the Aug 5 high, a pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support is 133.41, 20-day EMA.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play                                           

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing  
• RES 2: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing      
• RES 1: 119.090 High Aug 5               
• PRICE: 117.980 @ 05:49 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 117.359 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 116.888/116.320 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22   
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11 
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

Bobl futures remain in an uptrend and the pullback from Monday’s high is considered corrective. This is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at the Jun 14 high of 117.160. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 119.234, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support to watch  lies at 117.359, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.500 / 106.810 High Aug 6 / 5  
• PRICE: 106.340 @ 06:00 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 106.049 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.630 Low Jul 22  
• SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

The current uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact. The contract has recently traded through resistance at 105.975, the Jun 14 high. The clear break of this hurdle confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 24. Sights are on 106.916, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 106.049, the 20-day EMA, and 105.630, the Jul 22 low. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would be seen as a bearish development.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Watching Support                                          

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 100.43/101.46 High Aug 6 / 5  
• PRICE: 99.44 @ Close Aug 8 
• SUP 1: 99.20 Low Aug 8       
• SUP 2: 99.04/97.46 20-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 96.96 Low Jul 3 
• SUP 4: 96.57 Low Jul 1

Recent gains in Gilt futures marked a confirmation of the uptrend that started May 29. Monday's high reinforces current conditions. Note that 99.23, the Jun 21 peak, has been cleared. Scope is seen for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial key support lies at 99.04, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback is considered corrective, allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind.     

BTP TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 1: 119.57 High Aug 2  
• PRICE: 118.54 @ Close Aug 8
• SUP 1: 118.28/117.63 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

The medium-term trend in BTP futures remains bullish with the contract holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 120.00 handle next. Initial firm support is seen at 118.28 the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.63. A clear break of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal. For now, a pullback appears corrective.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bearish Threat Still Present      

• RES 4: 4895.81 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 4805.59 20-day EMA        
• RES 2: 4770.00 High Aug 2 
• RES 1: 4720.53 38.2% retracement of the Jul 12 - Aug 5 bear leg     
• PRICE: 4687.00 @ 06:10 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 4494.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont) 
• SUP 4: 4502.00 Low Jan 24 (cont)

A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday, reinforcing current conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 4478.81 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 4895.81, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is 4720.53, a Fibonacci retracement.            

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance   
• RES 3: 5600.75 High Aug 1 
• RES 2: 5460.55 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 5362.75 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 5342.75 @ 07:18 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: 5120.00 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 5185 50.76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5092.00 Low May 2  
• SUP 4: 5020 Low Apr 19 and a key support

S&P E-Minis traded lower Monday and this confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. The move down has resulted in a print below 5185.50, 76.4% of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 5092.00 next, the May 2 low. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective and the 50-day EMA marks a firm resistance, at 5460.55. Clearance of this average is required to alter the picture.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Corrective Cycle 

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $84.66 - High Jul 18
• RES 1: $79.97/81.39 - 20- and 50-day EMA   
• PRICE: $79.09 @ 07:01 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number 
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

A bear cycle in Brent futures remains in play and recent weakness reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through a key support this week, at 76.42, the Jun 4 low. A resumption of weakness would open $74.96 next, the Feb 5 low. The contract is oversold. This week’s recovery is considered corrective and marks an unwinding of the oversold reading. Initial firm resistance is seen at $81.39, the 50-day EMA.  

WTI TECHS: (U4) Bounce Highlights A Pause In The Downtrend  

• RES 4: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $83.58 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $82.27 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $76.76/78.88 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 1    
• PRICE: $76.09 @ 07:13 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: $71.67 - Low Aug 5  
• SUP 2: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $67.37 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

A bear threat in WTI futures remains present despite this week’s recovery - a correction. Short-term gains are allowing an oversold condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would again expose the next key support at $72.23, the Jun 4 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for an extension towards $70.73, the Feb 5 low. Key resistance is seen at $78.88, the Aug 1 high.   

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Structure

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2483.7 - High Jul 17 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: $2418.6 @ 07:17 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: $2353.2 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Recent weakness in Gold appears to be a correction. Note that the yellow metal has managed to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - currently at $2377.6. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $2483.7, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.      

SILVER TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $28.968/31.754 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 11                
• PRICE: $27.522@ 08:10 BST Aug 9
• SUP 1: $26.451- Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The metal has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low and this has exposed the next key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $28.968, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.