MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Break Reinforces Bearish Theme

Price Signal Summary – Bund Break Reinforces Bearish Theme

• S&P E-minis are in a consolidation mode but the trend condition is bullish following recent gains. Resistance at 4244.00, Feb 2 high and a bull trigger, has recently been cleared. The break reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started in October 2022. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above 4216.00, the May 31 low and a key support. For now, the recent move higher appears to be a correction. Price action last week reinforced a bearish theme - support at 4252.00, the May 25 low, has been breached.
• GBPUSD retained a sell-on-rallies theme into the Wednesday close. The pullback from 1.2545, Jun 2 high, highlights a bearish threat and this level represents a key short-term resistance. Note that, despite a brief test above it last week, 61.8% of the May 10 - 25 downleg at 1.2538 remains intact. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. The pair continues to trade just ahead of key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The top intersects at 141.11 today. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61. The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play - for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared The average intersects at 0.6653 amd the break signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal traded lower yesterday and has once again pierced trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. The trendline intersects at $1953.5. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5. WTI futures traded higher Monday, piercing resistance at $74.73, the May 24 high. However, the contract failed to hold on to its gains. A clear break of $74.73 would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension higher. This would open $76.74, the Apr 28 high.
• Bund futures faced resistance yesterday and the contract traded sharply lower. The break reinforces a bearish theme following the reversal from 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 133.45 has been cleared. Gilt futures have pulled back from recent highs. The latest recovery from 94.21, May 26 low, has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a bear cycle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0818 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0772 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0708 @ 05:41 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support

EURUSD reversed an intraday spike on Wednesday, reinforcing the current bearish theme. A downward sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact, highlighting a bear trend and price remains below 20- and 50-day EMAs. The focus is on 1.0551, the Mar 16 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0772, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure and signal scope for a stronger correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2641 High May 11
• RES 2: 1.2592 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 25 bear cycle
• RES 1: 1.2500/2545 High Jun 7 / 2 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2454 @ 06:02 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 1.2369/2308 Low Jun 5 / Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

GBPUSD retained a sell-on-rallies theme into the Wednesday close. The pullback from 1.2545, Jun 2 high, highlights a bearish threat and this level represents a key short-term resistance. Note that, despite a brief test above it last week, 61.8% of the May 10 - 25 downleg at 1.2538 remains intact - an important resistance. A continuation lower would open 1.2308, May 25 low and key support. Clearance of 1.2545 would reinstate the recent bull cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8814 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 2: 0.8717 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636/59 High Jun 5 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8602 @ 06:08 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 0.8567 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode. The primary trend direction remains down and this is highlighted by a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies highlight a bearish condition - the 50-dma is below the 200-dma, confirming a death cross signal. The focus is on 0.8547, the Dec 1 2022 low and a key support. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8659, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Inside The Bull Channel

• RES 4: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.45/141.16 High Jun 5 / Bull channel top from Jan 16 low
• PRICE: 139.80 @ 06:34 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 138.61 Low Jun 1 and the 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 136.71 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. The pair continues to trade just ahead of key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The top intersects at 141.11 today. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would highlight a potential top plus signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key support to watch is 138.61, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.20/151.07 High Jun 5 / May 29
• PRICE: 149.73 @ 06:51 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 147.78/146.84 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY is consolidating and maintains a short-term bullish tone with initial support at 148.59, the May 31 low. Clearance of this level would expose a firmer support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.87. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen a bearish theme and would signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, first resistance is at 150.20, the Jun 5 high, ahead of 151.07, the May 29 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Shooting Star Reversal Threat

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6767 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.6733 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 31 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6717 High Jun 07
• PRICE: 0.6661 @ 07:22 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 0.6613 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6567/6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022

The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play - for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared The average intersects at 0.6653 amd the break signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May. On the downside, a reversal lower is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. Note that yesterday’s price pattern is a shooting star candle - a possible bearish reversal warning.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Support Zone

• RES 4: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3492/85 20-day EMA / High Jun 1
• PRICE: 1.3355 @ 08:00 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 1.3322 Low Jun 07
• SUP 2: 1.3315 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3241 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD traded lower Thursday following the unexpected BoC rate hike, but remained above strong support layered between the April/May lows and has - for now - stalled any significant downside breakout. A resumption of weakness would expose 1.3315 and 1.3302, the May 8 and Apr 14 lows and a key support zone. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3492, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 136.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 2: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 134.18/134.95 20-day EMA / High Jun 6
• PRICE: 133.31 @ 05:04 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 133.00 76.4%retracement of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 2: 132.33 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures faced resistance yesterday and the contract traded sharply lower. The break reinforces a bearish theme following the reversal from 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 133.45 has been cleared, the May 30 low and this open 133.00, a Fibonacci retracement. The key support is down at 132.12, the May 26 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 134.18, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 116.670/117.010 50.0% of the Jun 7 range / High Jun 7
• PRICE: 116.260 @ 07:54 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 116.260 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 116.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 115.970 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 115.870 Low May 26 and key support

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and yesterday’s sharp move lower has reinforced bearish conditions. The contract has breached support at 116.400, the May 30 low and is through 116.302, 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally t. The breach of this level exposes key support at 115.870, the May 26 low. On the upside, a key near-term resistance is seen at 117.200, the Jun 6 high where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 105.975 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.815 High Jun 4
• RES 1: 105.655 High Jun 6 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 105.345 @ 07:55 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 105.335 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.330 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 104.960 Low Low Mar 13 (cont)

Schatz futures remain below 105.875, the Jun 1 high, and the contract traded lower Wednesday to reinforce current short-term bearish conditions. The break low exposes key short-term support at 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started in March and open the 105.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is seen at 105.655, the Jun 6 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Has Pulled Back From Recent Highs

• RES 4: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.64 High Jun 1
• RES 1: 97.06 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 95.78 @ 08:02 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 95.73 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 95.52 61.8% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: 94.91/21 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 94.00 Round number support

Gilt futures have pulled back from recent highs. The latest recovery from 94.21, May 26 low, has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Gains are considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a bear cycle. A resumption of weakness would open the 94.00 handle next. The bear trigger is 94.21, the May 26 low. Initial resistance to watch is at 97.64, the May 23 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 116.36 High Jun 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.06 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 113.97 @ 08:58 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 113.83 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 113.53 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally
• SUP 3: 112.86 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded lower yesterday and the contract has pulled back from the recent high of 116.36, the Jun 2 high. This highlights a developing short-term bearish threat and if correct, suggests potential for a deeper pullback near-term. The next firm support lies at 113.53, the 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally. Key resistance has been defined at 116.36, a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4362.00 High May 29
• PRICE: 4284.00 @ 06:42 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above 4216.00, the May 31 low and a key support. For now, the recent move higher appears to be a correction. Price action last week reinforced a bearish theme - support at 4252.00, the May 25 low, has been breached. The contract has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level. Resistance to watch is 4362.00, May 29 high, a break would be a bullish development.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4327.50 High Aug 16 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4305.75 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 4296.25 @ 13:04 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 4229.00 Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: 4202.64 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4155.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4144.00 Low May 24 and a key support

S&P E-minis are in a consolidation mode but the trend condition is bullish following recent gains. Resistance at 4244.00, Feb 2 high and a bull trigger, has recently been cleared. The break reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started in October 2022. The focus is on 4327.50 next, the Aug 16 2022 high (cont). The 50-day EMA, at 4155.00 remains a key support. A break is required to signal a reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Key Short-Term Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $78.73 - High Jun 5 and a short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: $76.88 @ 06:52 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: $74.18 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: $71.50/71.20 - Low May 31 / 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures continue to trade below Monday’s high. Price earlier this week pierced resistance at $78.50, the May 24 high, before pulling back. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension. This would open $80.08, the Apr 28 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead signal a top and this would once again expose key support at $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $75.06 - High Jun 5 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $72.44 @ 07:02 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: $70.00 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: $67.03/63.90 - Low May 31 / 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures traded higher Monday, piercing resistance at $74.73, the May 24 high. However, the contract failed to hold on to its gains. A clear break of $74.73 would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension higher. This would open $76.74, the Apr 28 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead highlight a top and expose key support at $63.90, the May 4 low. First support to watch is $70.00, the Jun 2 low.

GOLD TECHS: Pierces Trendline Support Once Again

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1945.4 @ 07:08 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal traded lower yesterday and has once again pierced trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. The trendline intersects at $1953.5. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.057/24.492 - High Jun 5 / Low Apr 25
• PRICE: $23.651 @ 08:04 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Low May 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver is consolidating. The trend condition is bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal following the break of $24.492, Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension reinforced the importance of this reversal pattern, highlighting a change in sentiment. Sights are set on $22.284 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. Initial firm resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point.