MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds at Fresh Contract Lows

Price Signal Summary – Bunds at Fresh Contract Lows

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Tuesday, extending the bull cycle that started Mar 15. Bullish conditions have also been reinforced by the recent break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the latter EMA marked an important short-term bullish development. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Tuesday. The contract has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - today at 3863.40. This average represented an important resistance and the break higher confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7.
• EURUSD rallied well Tuesday, exposing the key near-term resistance of 1.1137, Mar 17 high. Prices met this mark before moderating into the close. A break of this hurdle would ease recent bearish threats and instead would highlight a developing bullish theme. USDJPY is continuing to pull away from Monday’s high of 125.09 and has traded through initial support at 121.97, the Mar 28 low. The move is considered corrective and is beginning to allow a recent extreme overbought condition to unwind. AUDUSD remains below its recent YTD and multi-month highs. From a trend perspective, conditions are bullish. This follows last week’s move above 0.7441, Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165.
• Gold traded lower Tuesday but did bounce off the low. The outlook remains bearish following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. The move lower has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures traded lower yesterday but did find support at the day low. The move lower confirms an extension of the reversal from last week’s high of $116.64 on Mar 24. The contract has also cleared the 20-day EMA.
• Bunds remain in a downtrend and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday, extending the recent break of the 160.00 handle. The continuation lower also confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bearish. Futures traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday but did rebound from the session low of 119.86. Gains are considered corrective. The break of 120.26, Mar 24 low, marks a resumption of the broader downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1274 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.1232/48 61.8% of Feb 10-Mar 7 sell-off / 2.0% 10-dma env
• RES 2: 1.1150 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1137 High Mar 17 / 29 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.1111 @ 06:04 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 1.0945 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD rallied well Tuesday, exposing the key near-term resistance of 1.1137, Mar 17 high. Prices met this mark before moderating into the close. A break of this hurdle would ease recent bearish threats and instead would highlight a developing bullish theme. Note too that the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.1150, an equally important resistance. A breach of this zone would open 1.1232. Initial support is at 1.0945, Monday’s low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Eyeing 1.3000

• RES 4: 1.3492 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.3313 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3225/98 High Mar 25 and 23
• PRICE: 1.3100 @ 06:16 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 1.3051/3000 Low Mar 29 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair has traded lower this week. This marks an extension of the pullback from 1.3298, Mar 23 high. Cable has recently failed to hold on to gains above the 20-day EMA and the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. The pullback also means a key resistance at 1.3313, the 50-day EMA remains intact. The focus is on 1.3000, Mar 15 low. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Rally

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Dec 10/14 2021
• RES 3: 0.8543 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8498 High Dec 23
• RES 1: 0.8484 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8480 @ 06:22 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 0.8386 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 0.8296 Low Mar 23
• SUP 3: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday, easing the current bearish threat. Key short-term resistance at 0.8458, Mar 17 high was broken and this highlights a short-term reversal. The break also confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7 and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The focus is on 0.8278, Mar 7 high (probed) and 0.8498, the Dec 23 2021 high. Initial support is at Tuesday’s low of 0.8386.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 126.26 3.382 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 3: 125.86 High Jun 5 2015 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 125.28 High Aug 12 2015
• RES 1: 123.20/125.09 Intraday high / High Mar 28
• PRICE: 121.81@ 06:28 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 121.32 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 120.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 11942 20-day EMA

USDJPY is continuing to pull away from Monday’s high of 125.09 and has traded through initial support at 121.97, the Mar 28 low. The move is considered corrective and is beginning to allow a recent extreme overbought condition to unwind. An extension lower would open 120.95, the Mar 24 low ahead of the 120.00 handle. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 125.09.

EURJPY TECHS: Time For A Correction?

• RES 4: 140.03 High Jun 23 2015
• RES 3: 139.00 High Aug 21 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 138.62 High Aug 25 2015
• RES 1: 137.50/53 High Feb 2 ‘18 and major resistance / High Mar 28
• PRICE: 135.39 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 133.94 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 132.95/33 Low Mar 24 / 23
• SUP 3: 131.91 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 130.68 50-day EMA

EURJPY traded to a fresh trend high Monday. The cross has recently cleared a key resistance at 134.13, Jun 1 2021 high. This strengthened bullish conditions and Monday’s gains reinforce the uptrend. It is worth noting that the trend has entered overbought territory as it steepens - a possible risk for short-term bulls. A pullback would be seen as a healthy bull trend correction. 137.50/53 is the bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 0.7617 High Jun 25
• RES 3: 0.7597/99 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Jul 6 2021
• RES 2: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7540/65 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 0.7529 @ 06:47 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 0.7450 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 0.7385/76 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 0.7298 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support

AUDUSD remains below its recent YTD and multi-month highs. From a trend perspective, conditions are bullish. This follows last week’s move above 0.7441, Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This also reinforces the current bull cycle that began Jan 28. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7376.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Still Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2778 High Mar 16
• RES 3: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 2: 1.2667 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2593/2625 High Mar 28 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2489 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 1.2466 Low Mar 25
• SUP 2: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
• SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021

Trend conditions in USDCAD still appear bearish and the pair remains closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness and most recently, a break of 1.2552, 76.4% of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally, reinforced a bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on the next key support at 1.2451, Jan 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2625, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Remains In A Downtrend

• RES 4: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 162.73 High Mar 14
• RES 2: 160.31/161.02 High Mar 23 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 158.67 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 157.96 @ 05:09 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 156.05/00 Low Mar 29 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 155.70 Low Dec 7 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 155.03 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 154.81 Low Nov 9 2015 (cont)

Bunds remain in a downtrend and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday, extending the recent break of the 160.00 handle. The continuation lower also confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. With bearish momentum conditions dominating, the focus is on the 156.00 handle next. Firm resistance is at 160.31, the Mar 23 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 131.550 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 130.870 High Mar 18
• RES 2: 130.400 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.140 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 128.640 @ 05:17 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 127.750 Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)
• SUP 2: 127.540 Low Jun 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.520 Low Sep 3 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 127.280 Low Sep 18 2014 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower again Tuesday with bearish momentum conditions continuing to dominate. The move lower has again confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break paves the way for a move towards 127.750 next, the Jun 5 2015 low (cont). The 20-day EMA at 130.400 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Trend Conditions Dominate

• RES 4: 111.430 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 111.223 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 1: 110.915 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 110.720 @ 05:22 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 110.495 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 110.475 Low May 12 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 110.410 Low May 8 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 110.360 Low Apr 29 2014 (cont)

Schatz futures remain vulnerable and yesterday resumed their downtrend. The continued move lower strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend plus, it marks an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 111.00 has recently been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards the 110.475 next. Firm firm resistance is seen at 111.223, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 121.85 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 120.93 @ Close Mar 29
• SUP 1: 119.86 Low Mar 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 3: 119.36 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bearish. Futures traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday but did rebound from the session low of 119.86. Gains are considered corrective. The break of 120.26, Mar 24 low, marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and this has resulted in a test of the 120.00 handle. Further weakness would open 119.75, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is seen at 122.72, Mar 18 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 143.85 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• RES 2: 140.71 High Mar 11
• RES 1: 138.05/139.71 High Mar 28 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 137.23 @ Close Mar 29
• SUP 1: 135.69 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 135.43 Low May 7 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 134.61 Low Apr 24 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.00 Round number support

BTP futures remain vulnerable and the trend remains bearish - futures traded to a fresh cycle low again Tuesday. The move lower marks an extension of last week’s break lower, through support at 138.60, Feb 16 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and highlights a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 135.43, the May 7 2020 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 139.71.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bull Flag Breakout

• RES 4: 4189.00 Hi Feb 1
• RES 3: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 2: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 3965.50 High Feb 23
• PRICE: 3896.00 @ 05:43 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 3735.00/555.50 Low Mar 18 / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Tuesday. The contract has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - today at 3863.40. This average represented an important resistance and the break higher confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7. Also, the move higher has confirmed a bull flag breakout on the daily chart. The focus is on 3965.50 next, the Feb 23 high. Initial support lies at 3735.00, Mar 18 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4633.44 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 24 downleg
• PRICE: 4622.50 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 4428.55 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)

S&P E-Minis traded higher Tuesday, extending the bull cycle that started Mar 15. Bullish conditions have also been reinforced by the recent break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the latter EMA marked an important short-term bullish development. Resistance at 4578.50, Feb 9 high has been cleared. The break opens 4663.50, Jan 18 high. Initial firm support is at 4428.55, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $133.15 - High Mar 8
• RES 2: $129.17 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $114.83/123.74 - High Mar 29 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $110.99 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: $104.84/101.70 - Low Mar 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $96.93 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures traded lower yesterday but recovered from the session low. The move lower marks an extension of the pullback from last week’s $123.74 high (Mar 24). The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and this suggests scope for a deeper short-term retracement that has opened the 50-day EMA, at $101.70. The 50-day average marks a key pivot support. $123.74 is the key short-term resistance.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $126.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $107.84/116.64 -High Mar 29 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $105.21 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: $98.44/96.75 - Low Mar 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures traded lower yesterday but did find support at the day low. The move lower confirms an extension of the reversal from last week’s high of $116.64 on Mar 24. The contract has also cleared the 20-day EMA. The clear break strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA at $96.75. This EMA represents an important pivot level. On the upside, clearance of $116.64 would reinstate recent bullish conditions.

GOLD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1966.1 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $1927.3 @ 07:18 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold traded low Tuesday but did bounce off the day low. The outlook remains bearish following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. The move lower has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1903.4 and lies just ahead of the Mar 15 low of $1895.3. Both were probed yesterday, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Initial resistance is at $1966.1.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $25.847 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $24.909 @ 07:26 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: $24.487/473/487 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $22.863 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support

Silver gains last week stalled at $24.847, Mar 24 high. A S/T bearish theme remains intact and potential is seen for a deeper retracement. This is despite the recovery from yesterday’s low of $23.974. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $24.798, probed yesterday. This EMA marks an important support and a clear break would signal scope for an extension lower. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on $26.943, the Mar 8 high.