MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - ES1 Continues to Defy Gravity

Price Signal Summary - E-mini S&P Continues to Defy Gravity

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis continue to head north, topping first resistance at 4322.15 on Friday. Attention turns to round number resistance at 4400 and 4415.48, the 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 (U1) attention is on the bearish engulfing candle from Jun 18 that continues to warn of a short-term top in the trend. A break of 4015.00, Jun 21 low would reinforce the importance of the engulfing line and signal scope for a deeper pullback potentially below 4000.00 towards 3914.00, May 20 low.
• In FX, the USD remains firm. EURUSD has cleared 1.1837, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. The break opens 1.1795, Apr 6 low. GBPUSD is trading below 1.3787, Jun 21 low. The break signals scope for weakness towards 1.3717, Apr 16 low. USDJPY remains firm and has cleared 111.30, Mar 26, 2020 high. The focus turns to 111.71/86, Mar 24, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Scope also exists for a climb towards 112.23, Feb 20, 2020 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold broke lower Tuesday and breached support at $1761.1, Jun 18 low. The break highlighted resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 1 and note, the move also confirmed a bear flag that developed during the most recent consolidation phase. The focus is on $1733.5, 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally. Resistance to watch is at $1795.0, Jun 23 high. The Oil market trend condition remains bullish. Brent (U1) focus is $77.86, 1.382 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Support lies at $73.21, the 20-day EMA. WTI (Q1) sights are set on $77.35, 1.618 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Watch support at $71.72, the 20-day EMA.
• Within FI, Bund futures are firmer. Key short-term directional triggers are unchanged at; support at 171.67, Jun 22 low and resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. Key support in Gilt futures are approaching key resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. A break would open 128.50, 1.00 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing. Key pivot support is at 126.70, Jun 3 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: 1.2028 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1909 High Jun 30
• PRICE: 1.1856 @ 06:03 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 1.1808/1795 Low Jul 2 / Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD maintains a bearish theme despite Friday's recovery from session lows. The pair last week cleared 1.1848, Jun 18, 21 lows and 1.1837, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. The break reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for weakness towards 1.1795 next, Apr 6 low and the key support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial resistance is at 1.1909, Jun 30 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.3975/4001 50-day EMA / High Jun 23
• RES 1: 1.3886 High Jun 29
• PRICE: 1.3820 @ 06:09 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD traded lower again Friday and despite recovering from the day low, remains bearish. Last week, price breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low and touched new multi-month lows. This opens 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key S/T support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Clearance of this level would mark an important bearish breakout. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high. First resistance though is at 1.3886, Jun 29 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8616/29 High Jul 1 / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8579 @ 06:16 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 0.8564 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8492 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger

EURGBP is trading closer to last week's lows. The outlook remains bearish. Support at 0.8561, May 12 low was breached Jun 17. This continues to signal the end of the recent consolidation and highlights a bearish theme. Attention is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above the Jun 23 low. A break would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at 0.8646, Jun 1 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
• RES 3: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 111.71/94 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 111.66 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 111.11 @ 06:23 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 110.42/109.72 Low Jun 30 / Low June 21
• SUP 2: 109.77/109.19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY traded lower Friday. The move lower is considered corrective and bullish conditions continue to dominate. The pair last week cleared resistance at 111.12, Jun 24 high and a recent bull trigger. The recovery reinforces the current bull trend and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 111.94, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Key short-term trend support is at 110.42 Jun 30 low. A break is required to signal a top.

EURJPY TECHS: Still Looking For A Break Lower

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 132.70 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 131.766 @ 06:40 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 131.28/130.04 Low Jun 29, 30 / Low Jun 21 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY drifted lower into Friday's close. The S/T trend outlook is unchanged and remains bearish following the sharp move lower between Jun 15 - 21. The cross traded through the 50-day EMA and importantly breached a bull channel support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. This highlights a reversal and price has also recently probed the 100-dma. 130.04, Jun 21 low is the bear trigger. Resistance is seen at the 132.70/88 zone.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Despite Friday's Bounce

• RES 4: 0.7666 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 0.7617 High Jun 25 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7571 High Jun 29
• PRICE: 0.7513@ 06:47 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 0.7445 Low Jul 2
• SUP 2: 0.7400 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.7383 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 4: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing

Despite Friday's recovery, the AUDUSD outlook remains bearish. Last week's break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price is also below the 200-dma. The move in June through 0.7532, Apr 1 low confirmed a resumption of the reversal that occurred Feb 25 and this also highlights a bearish theme. The focus is on 0.7383, a bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. Firm resistance is at 0.7617, the Jun 25 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullbacks Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.2487/2501 High Jun 21 / 76.4% of Apr 21 - Jun 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2450 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 1.2344 @ 06:52 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 1.2294/53 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 1.2057 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.2007 Low May 18 and key support

USDCAD drifted lower Friday, reversing some of last week's gains. Nonetheless, the trend condition is bullish. A positive theme follows the recovery between Jun 1 - 21 that confirmed a reversal. The pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA reinforcing current conditions. Attention remains on 1.2501, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Initial firm support is seen at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Testing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 174.07 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 173.19 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 173.10 @ 05:18 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 172.18 20-and 50-day EMA levels
• SUP 2: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 3: 171.37 Low Jun 3
• SUP 4: 170.99 Low May 31 and key short-term support

Bund futures traded higher Friday and tested key resistance at 173.16, Jan 11 high. A clear break of this hurdle for bulls would remove recent bearish concerns and instead confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows would be reestablished. This would open 173.32, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 171.67, Jun 22 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.350 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 134.270 @ 05:24 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 134.040 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 133.700 76.4% retracement of the May 20 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures edged higher again Friday. A key support lies at 133.860, May 28, 31 and Jun 22 low. The continued recovery from these lows highlights a more positive short-term theme and attention has turned to key resistance at 124.510, the Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. A break would confirm scope for stronger gains. Price needs to breach 133.860 to reinstate a bearish theme once again. Initial support lies at 134.040.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Short-Term Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.205 High Jun 14
• RES 2: 112.185 High Jun 15 and 16
• RES 1: 112.175 High Jun 17, 18 and high Jul 2
• PRICE: 112.160 @ 05:24 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 112.135 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28
• SUP 3: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures edged higher again Friday. The continued short-term recovery from the 112.110 congestion lows suggests scope for a continuation higher. Attention has turned to the key resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high where a break would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, clearance of 112.110 would instead reinstate a bearish. Initial support lies at 112.135, Jul 1 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Probes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 129.19 1.382 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 128.43 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 128.28 @ Close Jul 2
• SUP 1: 127.73 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.25/126.91 Low Jun 10 / Low Jun 17 and key support
• SUP 3: 126.70 Low Jun 23 / Low Jun 3
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low May 21

Gilt futures traded higher Friday. This has resulted in a probe of key short-term resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. A clear break would represent a key short-term bullish development and signal a resumption of the uptrend that started May 13. Furthermore, a move higher would maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open 128.50 and 128.92, Fibonacci projections. Initial support is at 127.73, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Strong Rally Exposes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.47 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 152.21 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 152.02 @ Close Jul 2
• SUP 1: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 149.74 50.0% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 4: 149.53 Low May 28

BTPs rallied last week and ended the week on a strong note. A key short-term support lies at 149.97, Jun 25 low. The break higher last week suggests the recent corrective pullback between Jun 14 - 25 is over. Further gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19. Initial support lies at 150.56 low, Jun 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Bearish Engulfing Line Still In Play

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 2: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• PRICE: 4072.0 @ 05:52 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 4033.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 40119.80/4015.00 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged. The contract traded lower Jun 30 and this has exposed the key S/T support at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. A key technical pattern on Jun 18 - a bearish engulfing candle - continues to warn of a S/T top in the trend. A break of 4015.00 would reinforce the importance of the engulfing line and signal scope for a deeper pullback opening, 4000.00 and 3914.00, the May 20 low. Initial resistance is at 4121.00, Jun 25 high.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Still Defying Gravity

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4347.00 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 4336.75 @ 06:59 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 4250.32 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4186.47/26.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis ended last week on a firm note, rallying once again to all-time highs. This maintains the bullish theme and a positive price sequence. The contract recently recovered from support around the 50-day EMA and this reinforces bullish conditions. 4322.15 has been cleared, 0.764 projection of the Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing. Attention shifts to the 4400.00 handle. Initial support lies at 4250.32, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Heading North

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $76.74 - High Jul 1
• PRICE: $76.22 @ 07:03 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: $73.49/36 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $71.24 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.40 - Low May 25

Brent crude futures last week cleared the recent trend high of $75.77, Jun 28 high. The break higher has confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This paves the way for strength towards $77.00 and $77.86, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is seen at $73.49, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Probes Resistance

• RES 4: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1795.2/1804.3 - High Jul 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1785.4 @ 07:09 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: $1750.8 - Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold on Friday probed resistance at $1795.0, Jun 23 high. A clear break higher would neutralise recent bearish conditions and signal scope for a stronger recovery exposing $1825.4, Jun 17 high. A return lower though would again highlight a bearish risk and refocus attention on support at $1750.8, the Jun 29 low. This level also represents the bear trigger where a break would open $1733.5, a Fibonacci retracement.

SILVER TECHS: Eroding Initial Resistance

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.728/27.245 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.528 @ 07:22 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: $25.949/529 - Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver traded higher Friday and has probed resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. A clear break of this level would neutralise a recent bearish theme and instead signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This would expose $27.245, high Jun 17. A failure to hold onto recent gains though would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes the recent downtrend.