MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EStoxx Resumes Uptrend in Style
Price Signal Summary – Eurostoxx Resumes Uptrend in Style
- Price action on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Tuesday and the contract is holding on to its gains. The move higher confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too.
- GBPUSD found support Tuesday but for now, the pair continues to trade below its Feb 5 high. Price recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610. USDJPY is trading higher today as it extends the recovery from the Feb 7 low. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA.USDCAD is trading in a tight range and closer to its recent lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions.
- A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows. This highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA - at $72.21, despite being pierced, has provided firm support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- Bund futures remain in a bull cycle for now, despite Tuesday’s pullback. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play for now, and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Hammer Candle Signals A possible Reversal
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 1.0427/42 50-day EMA / High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.0359 @ 05:51GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 1.0272/0141 Low Feb 4 / 3 and the bear trigger.,
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18 ’23 bull leg
A short-term bull theme in EURUSD remains intact for now. Attention is on the candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0427, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.2420 @ 16:10 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
GBPUSD found support Tuesday but for now, the pair continues to trade below its Feb 5 high. Price recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.
EURGBP TECHS: Pivot Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.8323@ 06:30 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP is in consolidation mode. Gains last week appear to have undermined a recent bearish threat, however, the pullback from the Feb 6 high does highlight a developing bearish threat. 0.8378, the Jan 6 high, has been defined as a ley short-term resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a continuation lower would open 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and bear trigger.
USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 2: 154.51 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: 154.17 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 153.68 @ 06:47 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 152.38/150.93 Intraday low / Low Feb 07
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDJPY is trading higher today as it extends the recovery from the Feb 7 low. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. A break would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. The key support and bear trigger is at 150.93, the Feb 7 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Gains
- RES 4: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 3: 162.49 High Jan 29
- RES 2: 161.09 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 159.93 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 159.12 @ 07:02 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 157.90/155.61 Intraday low / Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is firmer today as the cross extends the rebound from Monday’s low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this suggests that the latest recovery is likely a correction. The move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 159.93, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance is at 161.09, the 50-day EMA, where a break would highlight a stronger reversal. The bear trigger lies at 155.61, the Feb 10 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6301/09 50-day EMA / Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6290 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD continues to trade at its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6301 (pierced), the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels would be bullish.
USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4291 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
USDCAD is trading in a tight range and closer to its recent lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17
- RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
- RES 1: 133.73 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 132.64 @ 05:28 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 132.63/131.62 20-day EMA / Low Jan 31
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24
- SUP 3: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
Bund futures remain in a bull cycle for now, despite Tuesday’s pullback. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. A continuation higher would open 133.73, a Fibonacci retracement point and the next important resistance. Firm short-term support has been defined at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5
- PRICE: 117.500 @ 05:35 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 117.432 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 116.890 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle despite Tuesday’s pullback. Recent gains reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear breach of 117.880, 50.0% of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg, would signal scope for an extension towards 118.258, the 61.8% retracement level. Initial support to watch lies at 117.432, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bull Flag Price Pattern
- RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.045 High Jan 3
- PRICE: 106.835 @ 06:00 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 106.795 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support
A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play. The contract has recently traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. Furthermore, the recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 106.795, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 95.11 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 94.35 High Feb 6
- PRICE: 92.92 @ Close Feb 11
- SUP 1: 92.63/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
- SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play for now, and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Sights are on the 94.75, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 92.63, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bull Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- PRICE: 119.97 @ Close Feb 11
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the upleg and sights are on 120.98 (pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Northbound
- RES 4: 5466.95 2.382 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - Jan 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5455.00 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 2: 5434.10 2.236 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - Jan 13 price swing
- RES 1: 5412.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5413.00 @ 06:23 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 5243.32 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5117.51 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15
- SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Tuesday and the contract is holding on to its gains. The move higher confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The focus is on 5434.10 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5243.32, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 5094.95.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Short-Term Reversal Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31
- RES 1: 6123.25 High Feb 7
- PRICE: 6086.50 @ 07:24 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance
Price action on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (J5) Finds Support
- RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $78.80/81.20 - High Jan 23 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $76.81 @ 07:08 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $74.10 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support
Brent futures have recovered from their recent lows. This highlights the fact that the cross has not confirmed a clear break of the 50-day EMA - at $75.48. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest recovery also signals a stronger reversal of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 bear leg. Sights are on $78.80, the Jan 23 high. Key short-term support and the bear trigger lies at $74.10, the Feb 6 low.
WTI TECHS: (H5) Remains Above Support
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $75.18/79.48 - High Feb 3 / High Apr 12 ‘24
- PRICE: $73.14 @ 07:21 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $70.43 - Low Feb 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows. This highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA - at $72.21, despite being pierced, has provided firm support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest recovery also signals a stronger reversal of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 bear leg. Sights are on $75.18, the Feb 3 high. Key short-term support and the bear trigger lies at $70.43, the Feb 6 low.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $2955.3 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11
- PRICE: $2895.4 @ 07:27 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $2852.7 - Low Feb 7
- SUP 2: $2799.3 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2731.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2689.5 - Low Jan 20
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2779.3, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.652 - High Feb 7
- PRICE: $31.902 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $30.814 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Key resistance in Silver at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel a recent bearish theme. This would open the $33.00 handle and expose $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $30.900, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.