MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Steams Through Resistance

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Steams Through Key Resistance

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded higher Wednesday but have since retreated. The contract has this week probed key resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4572.34 today. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday but have since retreated. Price has breached the 50-day EMA this week - currently at 4108.90. This average marks a key resistance area and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open 4324.50, the Jan 13 high.
• In FX, EURUSD traded sharply higher Thursday and remains firm. This week’s recovery has resulted in the break of a number of key short-term resistance points. The 20- and 50-day EMAs have been cleared and price is through the top of its bear channel that yesterday intersected at 1.1356. EURGBP traded lower yesterday, below 0.8300, before rebounding sharply. The cross is firmer again today. Price has bounced ahead of a major area of support, with 0.8300 representing the base of a multi-year range. EURJPY snapped sharply higher Thursday following the ECB decision. The rally reverses a recent bearish theme and signals scope for an extension higher. Price has traded above resistance 131.60, Jan 5 high and a bull trigger.
• On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating but remains vulnerable. The recent bull cycle stalled at $1853.9 on Jan 25 and the subsequent sell-off resulted in a break of the base of its bull channel drawn off the Aug 9 low. WTI futures traded higher yesterday. The uptrend remains intact - the contract last week cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher or higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded sharply lower yesterday and remain weak. Futures have cleared the 168.00 handle, reinforcing underlying bearish conditions and maintaining the clear bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures traded sharply lower yesterday following the BOE announcement. The break lower reinforces bearish conditions and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Through Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1692 High Oct 28, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 2: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1483 High Jan 14 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1458 @ 06:09 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 1.1351 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1, 2021 high
• SUP 2: 1.1267 Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 1.1221/1121 Low Jan 1 / Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1070 Low May 29, 2020

EURUSD traded sharply higher Thursday and remains firm. This week’s recovery has resulted in the break of a number of key short-term resistance points. The 20- and 50-day EMAs have been cleared and price is through the top of its bear channel that yesterday intersected at 1.1356. A clear break of this channel resistance highlights a more significant reversal. The focus is on 1.1483, Jan 14 high. Initial support is seen at 1.1351.

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3713/49 200-dma / High Jan 13
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3628 High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.3589 @ 06:15 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 1.3501/3435 50-day EMA / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 1.3358/43 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 23
• SUP 3: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3223 2.0% 10-dma envelope

GBPUSD traded higher again Thursday as the pair extended the recovery from its recent low of 1.3358 on Jan 27. Price has recently cleared resistance at 1.3525, Jan 26 high and yesterday’s resumption of strength suggests scope for a climb towards 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 1.3501, the 50-day EMA. Key support is unchanged at 1.3358, Jan 27 low. This is the trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Major Support Holds

• RES 4: 0.8526 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8443 50.0% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• PRICE: 0.8433 @ 06:24 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 0.8362 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8285 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg

EURGBP traded lower yesterday, below 0.8300, before rebounding sharply. The cross is firmer again today. Price has bounced ahead of a major area of support, with 0.8300 representing the base of a multi-year range the cross has been trading within since 2016. 0.8282/77 marks the Feb’20 and Dec’19 lows. The reversal from this key area of support suggests bullish activity will likely persist near-term. Sights are on 0.8443 next, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 116.35 High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 115.67/68 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg / High Jan 28
• RES 1: 115.19 High Jan 1
• PRICE: 114.96 @ 06:29 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 114.16/113.47 Low Feb 02 / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 113.43 76.4% of the Nov 30 - Jan 4 rally
• SUP 3: 113.14 Low Dec 17
• SUP 4: 112.53/112.31 Low Nov 30 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The USDJPY outlook remains bullish despite a recent correction lower. The climb between Jan 24 - 28 resulted in a breach of former resistance at 115.06, the Jan 18 high. This has strengthened the recent reversal from 113.47, Jan 24 low and signals scope for an extension towards 116.35, high Jan 4 and a key medium-term resistance. Key short-term support is unchanged at 113.47. A break would be bearish.

EURJPY TECHS: Reverses Recent Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 132.92 High Oct 21, 2021
• RES 3: 132.46 1.00 proj of the Dec 3 - Jan 5 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 132.04 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - Dec 3 downleg
• RES 1: 131.83 Intraday high
• PRICE: 131.71@ 06:42 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 130.38, 50.0% of yesterday's large range
• SUP 2: 129.19 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 127.39 Low Dec 6 and a major support

EURJPY snapped sharply higher Thursday following the ECB decision. The rally reverses a recent bearish theme and signals scope for an extension higher. Price has traded above resistance 131.60, Jan 5 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of a bull cycle that started on December 3. The focus is on 132.04 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support is seen at 130.38, 50.0% of yesterday's large range.

AUDUSD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Marks Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.7187 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7168 High Feb 3
• PRICE: 0.7129 @ 06:45 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 0.7034 Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6884 0.764 proj of the Oct ‘21 - Dec ‘21 - Jan price swing

AUDUSD is unchanged and holding onto recent gains from the Jan 28 low of 0.6968. The trend condition is bearish and the recent bounce is considered corrective. The recent breach of key support at 0.6993/91, the Dec 3 2021 and Nov 2 2020 lows reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has opened 0.6963/21, the Jul 16 and Jul 14 2020 lows. The next firm resistance is seen at 0.7187, the 50-day EMA values.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797/2814 High Jan 28 / High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2684 @ 06:49 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 1.2650 Low Jan 27
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD is consolidating. The outlook remains bullish despite this week’s corrective pullback. A positive theme follows the recent recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low. Price has traded above the 50-day EMA and the break has resulted in a move through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. This has opened 1.2843, a retracement value. Initial firm support lies at 1.2560, the Jan 26 low. First support is at 1.2650, the Jan 27 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Downtrend Accelerates

• RES 4: 171.07 High Jan 24 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 170.98 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 169.81 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 168.81 High Feb 3
• PRICE: 166.56 @ 05:06 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 166.33 Low May 21, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 2: 165.86 61.8% retracement of the May ‘18 - Sep ‘19 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 165.24 Low May 7, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 164.82 Low May 3, 2019

Bund futures traded sharply lower yesterday and remain weak. Futures have cleared the 168.00 handle, reinforcing underlying bearish conditions and maintaining the clear bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average conditions remain in a bear mode highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 166.33 next, May 21 2019 low on the continuation chart. Yesterday’s high of 168.81 marks initial resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Under Pressure

• RES 4: 133.142 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 132.428 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.060 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 131.150 Intraday high
• PRICE: 130.870 @ 05:16 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 130.510 Low Oct 12, 2018 (cont
• SUP 2: 130.320 Low Oct 10, 2018 (cont)
• SUP 3: 130.260 Low Oct 5, 2018 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.000 Psychological round number

Bobl futures remain bearish as the downtrend accelerated yesterday. Futures are again trading lower this morning. This week’s breach of support at 132.40, Jan 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and resumed the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages also point south. Attention is on 130.510 next, the Oct 12, 2018 low (cont). Yesterday’s high of 132.060 is a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Bears Clearly In Control

• RES 4: 112.042 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 111.948 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 111.870 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 111.615 Intraday high
• PRICE: 111.550 @ 05:17 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 111.540 Low Jan 3
• SUP 2: 111.480 23.6% retrace of the 2011 - 2020 major upleg (cont)
• SUP 3: 111.460 Low Dec 16, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.415 Low Dec 8, 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures sold off sharply yesterday as the downtrend accelerates and bears remain firmly in control. Monday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 111.890, the Jan 19 low and bear trigger. The break lower confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend. This opens 111.480 next, 23.6% retracement of the 2011 - 2020 major upleg (cont). Yesterday’s high of 111.870 marks initial resistance.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Fresh Trend Lows

• RES 4: 124.17 Low Nov 24
• RES 3: 123.94 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 123.71 High Jan 24 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 122.56/122.90 High Feb 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 121.29 @ Close Feb 3
• SUP 1: 121.12 Low Nov 8 2018 (cont)
• SUP 2: 120.51 Low Oct 16, 2018 (cont)
• SUP 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 119.36 Low Oct 10, 2018 (cont)

Gilt futures traded sharply lower yesterday following the BOE announcement. The break lower reinforces bearish conditions and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Monday’s break of former support at 121.93, Jan 19 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on a move to 121.12 next, the Nov 8, 2018 low on the continuation chart. Resistance is seen at 122.56, Feb 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Impulsive Resumption Of The Bear Trend

• RES 4: 146.93/147.06 50-day EMA / High Jan 13
• RES 3: 146.16 High Feb 1
• RES 2: 145.11 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 144.55 Low Jan 27 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 142.46 @ Close Feb 3
• SUP 1: 142.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 141.36 Low Jun 15, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 140.14 Low Jun 10, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 139.87 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

A sharp sell-off dominated yesterday’s price action in BTP futures. The break below former support at 144.55, Jan 27 low confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 142.00 handle next. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the recent breakout level of 144.55. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4808.25 All-time high on Jan 4
• RES 3: 4739.50 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 4572.34/4586.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4526.50 @ 06:49 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 4395.50 Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 4212.75 Low Jan 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4186.57 23.6% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 major rally
• SUP 4: 4126.75 Low Jun 21, 2021 (cont)

S&P E-minis traded higher Wednesday but have since retreated. The contract has this week probed key resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4572.34 today. A clear breach of this average is required to improve bullish conditions and signal potential for a stronger recovery towards 4671.75 next, Jan 18 high.Recent gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 4121.75, the Jan 24 low.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Back Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4392.50 High Nov 18 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4324.50, High Jan 13
• RES 1: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4144.00 @ 05:47 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 4104.50/3990.50 Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 3980.00 Low Nov 30 2021
• SUP 3: 3935.00 Low Oct 6 2021
• SUP 4: 3895.00 Low Jul 19 2021 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday but have since retreated. Price has breached the 50-day EMA this week - currently at 4108.90. This average marks a key resistance area and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open 4324.50, the Jan 13 high. Recent gains are still considered corrective. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 3990.50, Jan 24 low and the trigger for a resumption of a bearish theme.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Clears Recent Highs

• RES 4: $96.094 - 2.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: $93.24 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $91.64 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $91.40 @ 06:57 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: $87.72 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: $86.39/84.22 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: $82.26 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $79.95 - Low Jan 10

Brent futures delivered a fresh trend high print once again yesterday. The condition remains bullish. The contract resumed its uptrend last week following the break of $88.69, Jan 20 high. This means that a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. MA conditions are in a bull mode too. The $90.00 handle has been cleared and the focus is on $93.24, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at $87.72, the Feb 1 low.

WTI TECHS: (H2) Clears The Psychological $90.00 Handle

• RES 4: $94.13 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $92.85 - 2.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $91.58 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $90.99 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $90.66 @ 07:04 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: $86.34 - Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: $84.52/81.90 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
• SUP 3: $79.92/77.34 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: $74.01 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures traded higher yesterday. The uptrend remains intact - the contract last week cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher or higher highs and higher lows and moving average conditions remain in a bull mode. Futures have cleared the psychological $90.00 handle. This opens $91.58 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support is seen at $86.34, the Jan 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $1877.2 - High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1871.0 - High Nov 18
• RES 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1822.2 - High Jan 27
• PRICE: $1808.4 @ 07:18 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1775.7 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6

Gold is consolidating but remains vulnerable. The recent bull cycle stalled at $1853.9 on Jan 25 and the subsequent sell-off resulted in a break of the base of its bull channel drawn off the Aug 9 low. This highlights a bearish threat and a more significant reversal and signals potential for weakness towards $1775.7, the Dec 16 low. For bulls, a break of $1853.9 is required to reinstate the recent bull theme. Initial resistance is at $1822.2.

SILVER TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $24.886 - High Nov 22
• RES 3: $24.700 - High Jan 20
• RES 2: $23.994 - High Jan 25
• RES 1: $23.103/599 - 50-day EMA / High Jan 27
• PRICE: $22.526 @ 07:22 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: $22.151 - Low Jan 28
• SUP 2: $21.949 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 3: $21.427/423 - Low Dec 15 / Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver is consolidating but remains vulnerable. The metal reversed a recent bullish theme following last week’s sharp sell-off and breached $22.809, Jan 17 low, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. This opens $21.949, the Jan 7 low. A break would reinforce the bearish threat and expose $21.427/423, the Dec 15 and Sep 29 lows and a key support area. Initial resistance is seen at $23.103, the 50-day EMA.