MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Within Range of Key Pivot Point

Price Signal Summary - EUR/USD Within Range of Key Pivot Point

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain above the recent low of 4438.50 from Feb 4. However, the contract has failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4561.44 today. This average continues to provide a firm resistance and a clear breach of it is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above recent lows. The contract has failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4196.30 today. The average continues to represent a key resistance point.
• In FX, EURUSD bulls remain in control however price action is trading in a more volatile manner near its recent highs. Thursday’s high of 1.1495 marks initial resistance where a break is required to suggest a resumption of the uptrend. USDJPY traded higher once again Thursday. The pair has topped resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high and is closing in on key resistance at 116.35, the Jan 4 high and bull trigger. AUDUSD has reversed sharply lower from Thursday’s high of 0.7249. The pullback means the pair has failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and is an early warning of a possible stronger short-term reversal.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains this week’s bullish theme despite the pullback from yesterday’s high. A continuation higher would expose firmer resistance and a bull trigger at $1853.9, Jan 25 high. WTI futures uptrend remains intact and short-term dips are considered corrective. The contract recently cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high to maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract traded lower again yesterday, resuming its downtrend. This week’s move lower has reinforced bearish conditions and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures remain soft and bearish conditions dominate - the contract traded to a fresh trend low yesterday.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Volatile Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.1692 High Oct 28, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 2: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1495 High Feb 10 / High March 2020
• PRICE: 1.1383 @ 06:17 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 1.1326 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1, 2021 high
• SUP 2: 1.1267 Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 1.1221/1121 Low Jan 1 / Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1070 Low May 29, 2020

EURUSD bulls remain in control however price action is trading in a more volatile manner near its recent highs. Thursday’s high of 1.1495 marks initial resistance where a break is required to suggest a resumption of the uptrend. 1.1495 also coincides with the March 2020 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 1.1326, the top of the former channel top. Short-term dips are considered corrective.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3705/49 200-dma / High Jan 13
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3644 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 1.3530 @ 06:22 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 1.3491 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 1.3435 Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase

GBPUSD traded higher Thursday to 1.3644 but failed to hold onto its gains. The outlook is unchanged and remains bullish following recent gains from 1.3358, Jan 27 low and scope is seen for a test of 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 1.3491, Feb 7 low. Key support is unchanged at 1.3358, Jan 27 low. This is the trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8526 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8478 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 0.8413 @ 06:28 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 0.8389 Low 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8285 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg

EURGBP is consolidating and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The outlook remains bullish following the Jan 3 rebound from a major area of support. 0.8300 is the base of a multi-year range, in place since 2016 and 0.8282/77 marks the Feb’20 and Dec’19 lows. The reversal from these key chart points highlight both a S/T and potentially a M/T reversal. Sights are on 0.8480 next, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Key S/T Resistance

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.35 High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.34 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 116.09 @ 06:43 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 115.01 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.58 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.16 Low Feb 02
• SUP 4: 1113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support

USDJPY traded higher once again Thursday. The pair has topped resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high and is closing in on key resistance at 116.35, the Jan 4 high and bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 117.08, a projection of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing. Initial support is seen at 115.12, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Intact For Now

• RES 4: 134.13 High June 2021
• RES 3: 134.09 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 133.45/48 2.0% 10-dma env / High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 133.15 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 131.99 @ 06:55 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 131.26/130.61 Low Feb 7 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 130.15 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 129.19 Low Feb 3
• SUP 4: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support

EURJPY rallied Thursday to print a new 2022 high of 133.15. The cross has failed to hold onto these gains however and is trading lower today. The short-term outlook is bullish following the strong impulsive rally on Feb 3 and the extension that followed. The focus is on 133.48 next, the October 2021 high. Initial support is seen at 131.26 and130.61, the Feb 7 low and 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Sharp Reversal

• RES 4: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.7258 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.7249 High Feb 09
• PRICE: 0.7114 @ 07:02 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 0.7107/7052 Low Feb 8 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6884 0.764 proj of the Oct ‘21 - Dec ‘21 - Jan price swing

AUDUSD has reversed sharply lower from Thursday’s high of 0.7249. The pullback means the pair has failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and is an early warning of a possible stronger short-term reversal. A deeper pullback would expose support at 0.7052, Feb 4 low. A break of this level would open 0.6968/6963, the Jan 28 and Jul 16, 2020 lows. On the upside, clearance of 0.7249 is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797/2814 High Jan 28 / High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2742 @ 07:07 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 1.2636 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD traded lower Thursday but the weakness was short-lived and yesterday’s low of 1.2636 marks the initial support. A positive outlook remains intact following the recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low that resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA and a climb through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. This has opened 1.2843, the 76.4% value. A break below 1.2636 would threaten the bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Fresh Trend Lows

• RES 4: 169.98 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 168.1120-day EMA
• RES 2: 167.00 High Feb 4
• RES 1: 166.11 Jan 8 high
• PRICE: 164.58 @ 05:06 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 164.37 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 164.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 163.63 Low Mar, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 162.60 76.4% retrace of the Oct ‘18 - Sep ‘19 bull cycle (cont)

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract traded lower again yesterday, resuming its downtrend. This week’s move lower has reinforced bearish conditions and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average conditions are in a bear mode too highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards the 164.00 handle next. 166.11 is initial resistance, Jan 8 high.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 132.667 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 132.060 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 131.778 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.840 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 130.200 @ 05:29 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 130.080 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 130.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7, 2015 (cont) (cont)
• SUP 4: 129.020 Low Dec 7, 2015 (sont)

Bobl futures traded to a fresh trend low yesterday to mark a resumption of the underlying downtrend. The outlook remains bearish. Continued selling pressure maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages are in a bear mode too. Attention is on the psychological 130.00 handle next. Initial resistance is seen at 130.84, Jan 10 high. Short term gains would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 111.945 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 111.870 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 111.778 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 111.640 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 111.485 @ 05:33 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 111.250/208 Low Feb 7 / 2.50 proj of Dec 20-Jan 19-24 swing
• SUP 2: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 111.140 Low Jun 11, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.090 Low Jun 10, 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures remain bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The Jan 31 sell-off resulted in a break of 111.890, Jan 19 low and a bear trigger. This confirmed a resumption and an acceleration of the downtrend. Moving average conditions remain bearish too. The focus is on 111.208 next, a Fibonacci projection. The Jan 10 high of 111.640 marks initial resistance.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Bears Still In Charge

• RES 4: 123.34 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 121.99 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 121.59 High Feb 4
• RES 1: 120.96 High Feb 8
• PRICE: 120.08 @ Close Feb 10
• SUP 1: 119.54 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 119.36 Low Oct 10, 2018 (cont)
• SUP 3: 119.28 2.382 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.06 2.500 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures remain soft and bearish conditions dominate - the contract traded to a fresh trend low yesterday. Continued selling pressure reinforces bearish conditions and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average conditions are pointing south too, highlighting current sentiment. With the 120.00 psychological handle cleared, the focus is on 119.28, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 120.96.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Path Of Least Resistance Still Down

• RES 4: 144.55 Low Jan 19
• RES 3: 14.47 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.55 High Feb 4
• RES 1: 141.14 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 139.45 @ Close Feb 10
• SUP 1: 138.59 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 138.09 1.50 proj of the Dec 14 - Jan 19 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures ended its recent consolidation yesterday, breaking lower to a fresh trend low. The outlook remains bearish. Continued selling pressure has confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 138.09 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at the Jan 9 high of 141.14.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Fails To Hold Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4808.25 All-time high on Jan 4
• RES 3: 4739.50 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a near-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 4458.75 @ 06:00 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 4438.50 Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 4395.50 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 4212.75 Low Jan 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4186.57 23.6% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 major rally

S&P E-minis remain above the recent low of 4438.50 from Feb 4. However, the contract has failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4561.44 today. This average continues to provide a firm resistance and a clear breach of it is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would open 4671.75 initially, Jan 18 high. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on the 4212.75 low from Jan 24. This remains the key short-term bear trigger.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Pulls Back From Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4392.50 High Nov 18 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 1: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4136.00 @ 06:57 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 4056.00 Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 399.50 Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 3980.00 Low Nov 30 2021
• SUP 4: 3935.00 Low Oct 6 2021

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above recent lows. The contract has failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4196.30 today. The average continues to represent a key resistance point. A clear break of it would suggest scope for a stronger recovery that would open 4324.50, Jan 13 high. The shift lower however is bearish and an extension would refocus attention on 3990.50, Jan 24 low and the bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $96.09 - 2.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $94.82 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $94.00 - High Feb 7
• PRICE: $90.62 @ 07:05 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: $89.93/87.72 - Low Feb 8 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: $84.22 - Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: $84.01 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $79.95 - Low Jan 10

Brent futures remain below recent highs. This week’s move lower is considered corrective and the outlook is bullish. The contract recently resumed its uptrend, breaking $88.69, the Jan 20 high. This means that a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. MA conditions are in a bull mode too. The $90.00 handle has been cleared and the focus is on $94.82, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $87.72.

WTI TECHS: (H2) Trend Conditions Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $95.70 - 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number support
• RES 2: $94.13 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $93.17 - High Jan 4
• PRICE: $89.57 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: $86.83 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $86.34 - Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: $81.90 - Low Jan 24
• SUP 4: $77.34 - Low Jan 10

WTI futures uptrend remains intact and short-term dips are considered corrective. The contract recently cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high to maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average conditions remain in a bull mode too. Futures have cleared the psychological $90.00 handle and this opens $94.13 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support to watch is seen at $86.34, Jan 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Despite Yesterday’s Pullback

• RES 4: $1877.2 - High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1871.0 - High Nov 18
• RES 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1842.0 - High Feb 10
• PRICE: $1822.2 @ 07:18 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: $1805.6 - Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1775.7 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 and a key support

Gold maintains this week’s bullish theme despite the pullback from yesterday’s high. A continuation higher would expose firmer resistance and a bull trigger at $1853.9, Jan 25 high. Recent attention has been on the break of a bull channel base drawn off the Aug 9 low that highlighted a bearish threat plus a more significant reversal. A return lower would refocus attention on $1780.4, Jan 28 low and $1775.7, Dec 16 low.

SILVER TECHS: Resistance Defined At $23.715

• RES 4: $24.886 - High Nov 22
• RES 3: $24.700 - High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $23.994 - High Jan 25
• RES 1: $23.715 - High Feb 10
• PRICE: $22.958@ 08:03 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.949 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 3: $21.427/423 - Low Dec 15 / Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver traded higher yesterday but has since pulled back. Initial resistance has been defined at $23.715, Thursday’s high. A break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open $23.994, the Jan 25 high. On the downside, key support is at $22.008, the Feb 3 low. A break of this support would reinstate the recent bearish theme. This would instead open $21.949, the Jan 7 low.