MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Extending Week’s Recovery

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Extending Week’s Recovery

• The E-mini S&P contract remains in a bull mode condition and is trading higher. Attention is on the top of the bull channel drawn from the March 13 low - the top intersects at 4632.89 today. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bullish conditions. Eurostoxx 50 futures recovered from yesterday’s lows and remain in consolidation mode. Despite a brief period below it yesterday, support at the 50-day EMA remains intact for now. The average intersects at 4353.80.
• GBPUSD has traded higher today as the pair extends this week’s recovery. The move lower that started Jul 14, appears to be a correction. However, this bear cycle remains in play and short-term signals continue to highlight a bearish threat. This week’s move lower in USDJPY appears to be a correction. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, has strengthened a short-term bullish condition. This signals scope for a climb towards 142.08, 61.8% of the early July downleg. AUDUSD remains in a bearish cycle but has managed to find some support this week. Price has recently pierced the 50-day EMA - at 0.6723 and a key short-term support. An extension lower would open 0.6651, the Jul 11 low.
• Gold conditions remain bullish for now and this week’s recovery signals the end of the recent correction. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces a bull theme. A stronger resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s climb confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for an extension towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13.
• Bund futures are broadly unchanged and remain below last week’s peak. The recent retracement appears to be a correction and short-term trend signals highlight a bull cycle. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance. Gilt futures are consolidating. A bullish theme remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s print above resistance at 97.00, the Jun 23 high, and clearance of the 50-dma on the continuation chart, reinforces current positive conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Off Lows, But Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.1355 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 22 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 2: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1147/1229 High Jul 24 / 20
• PRICE: 1.1104 @ 05:45 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.1021 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 1.1012/04 High Jun 22 / Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 1.0972 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0949 Trendline support drawn from the May 31 low

The latest recovery in EURUSD concludes the recent six-session losing streak. The recent move down is considered corrective, however, price has traded through the 20-day EMA and this continues to signal scope for a deeper short-term retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0972. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 1.1276, the Jul 18 high. First resistance is at 1.1147, the Jul 24 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Extending This Week’s Recovery

• RES 4: 1.3254 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 1.3011 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - 20 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.2951 @ 06:07 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.2801/2798 61.8% of the Jun 29 - Jul 14 Upleg / Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 1.2751 Low Jul 10
• SUP 3: 1.2734 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2702 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 8 low

GBPUSD has traded higher today as the pair extends this week’s recovery. The move lower that started Jul 14, appears to be a correction. However, this bear cycle remains in play and short-term signals continue to highlight a bearish threat. A resumption of weakness would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.2734. The base of the bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low and a key support, crosses at 1.2702. First resistance is at 1.3011.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading At This Week’s Lows

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8693/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8637 High Jul 25
• PRICE: 0.8568 @ 06:19 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 0.8560 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8519 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP is trading at this week’s lows. Recent bearish price action threatens the bull theme - the cross has breached both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signalling a stronger reversal. The move lower has exposed 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at Tuesday’s high of 0.8637. Clearance of the 100-dma of 0.8693 and congestion resistance at 0.8719, the May 23 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 143.22 76.4% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 142.88 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 1: 142.08 61.8% retracement of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 140.18 @ 06:33 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 139.11 Low Jul 20
• SUP 2: 138.77 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

This week’s move lower in USDJPY appears to be a correction. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, has strengthened a short-term bullish condition. This signals scope for a climb towards 142.08, 61.8% of the early July downleg. A break would open 143.22, the 76.4% retracement point. On the downside, key support has been defined at 137.25, the Jul 14 low. Initial support to watch lies at 139.11, the Jul 20 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Trendline Support

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 156.89/158.05 High Jul 25 / 21
• PRICE: 155.45 @ 07:00 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 154.89 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 153.79 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 153.49 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 151.61 High May 2

EURJPY has traded lower again today, extending this week’s correction. S/T trend conditions are bullish. MA studies are in bull mode position highlighting a rising trend. Attention is on 158.00, Jun 28 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key trendline support, drawn from the Mar 24 low, is at 155.14. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - May 31 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6936 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 0.6803 @ 08:13 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 0.6723/15 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 0.6651 Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: 0.6619 Low Jul 7
• SUP 4: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support

AUDUSD remains in a bearish cycle but has managed to find some support this week. Price has recently pierced the 50-day EMA - at 0.6723 and a key short-term support. An extension lower would open 0.6651, the Jul 11 low. Further out, the next key support lies at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, a stronger reversal higher would expose 0.6847, the Jul 20 high. The key bull trigger is at 0.6900, the Jun 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3291 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3243 High Jul 18
• PRICE: 1.3171 @ 08:17 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg

USDCAD remains in consolidation mode and is trading above key support at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A break of 1.3093 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. This would open 1.3084 and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3291, is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 134.01 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 133.32 @ 05:10 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 132.80 Low Jul 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 132.23 61.8% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 131.92 Low Jul 13
• SUP 4: 131.61 76.4% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally

Bund futures are broadly unchanged and remain below last week’s peak. The recent retracement appears to be a correction and short-term trend signals highlight a bull cycle. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 135.00, the Jun 27 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Jul 10. Initial support to watch lies at 132.80, the Jul 21 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.200/244 High Jul 24 / 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 115.820 @ 05:21 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 115.540 Low Jul 21 / 26
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the pullback from last week’s high is considered corrective. Attention is on key short-term resistance that has been defined at 116.600, the Jul 19 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 116.990, the Jun 12 high. On the downside, a move through 115.540, the Jul 21 / 26 low, would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 105.370 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.090 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 104.945 @ 05:33 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures remain in a short-term uptrend despite the recent pullback from 105.185, the Jul 19 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of 105.185 would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support to watch is 104.805, the Jul 17 low. A break would expose key support and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bulls Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 96.41 @ Close Jul 26
• SUP 1: 96.11 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 95.20 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 94.58 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.20 Low Jul 13

Gilt futures are consolidating. A bullish theme remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s print above resistance at 97.00, the Jun 23 high, and clearance of the 50-dma on the continuation chart, reinforces current positive conditions. A resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for gains towards 99.71, 50.0% of the Mar-Jul downleg (cont). Initial firm support to watch lies at 96.11, the Jul 21 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• PRICE: 115.90 @ Close Jul 26
• SUP 1: 115.65/09 20-day EMA / Low Jul 14 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 114.26 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 112.48 Low May 29

BTP futures remain below 117.48, the Jul 19 high. Short-term bullish conditions are intact and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Attention is on the key hurdle at 117.60, the Jun 26 high. A resumption of gains and a break of this resistance would strengthen a bullish theme and open 118.18, the Feb 2 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch lies at 115.09, the Jul 14 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Support At The 50-Day EMA Is Intact

• RES 4: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4447.00 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4435.00 High Jul 13 / 14
• PRICE: 4383.00 @ 06:35 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 4353.80/4331.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and key support
• SUP 3: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures recovered from yesterday’s lows and remain in consolidation mode. Despite a brief period below it yesterday, support at the 50-day EMA remains intact for now. The average intersects at 4353.80. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4220.00, the Jul 7 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4709.55 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4670.25 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4639.79 1.764 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4632.89 Bull channel top drawn from the March 13 low
• PRICE: 4609.75 @ 08:00 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 4522.44 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 4419.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4386.29 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract remains in a bull mode condition and is trading higher. Attention is on the top of the bull channel drawn from the March 13 low - the top intersects at 4632.89 today. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4639.69, a Fibonacci projection. A corrective pullback would initially target the 20-day EMA at 4522.44 and a key short-term support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Bulls Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $86.76 - High Jan 23
• RES 3: $86.20 - High Jan 27
• RES 2: $85.47 - High Apr 12 / 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $83.87 - High Jul 25
• PRICE: $83.55 @ 06:55 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: $79.51/78.19 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 3: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
• SUP 4: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support

Brent futures are holding on to their recent gains. The contract remains in an uptrend and this week’s move higher has confirmed a resumption of the trend. Note that moving average studies are in bull-mode position highlighting a positive cycle. The contract has cleared all major short-term resistance points and this signals scope for a climb towards $85.47, the Apr 12 high. Initial key short-term support has been defined at $78.19, the Jul 18 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Sights Are On Key Resistance

• RES 4: $83.59 - High Jul 11 2022
• RES 3: $81.75 - High Jan 23
• RES 2: $81.44 - High Apr 12 and key resistance
• RES 1: $79.90 - High Jul 25
• PRICE: $79.50 @ 07:01 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: $75.16/73.78 - 20- day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s climb confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break above $77.15, the Jul 13 high signals scope for an extension towards the next key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current positive conditions. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.

GOLD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Holds

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $2004.2 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 1: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1975.7 @ 07:21 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: $1951.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold conditions remain bullish for now and this week’s recovery signals the end of the recent correction. Last week’s print above $1985.3, the May 24 high, reinforces a bull theme. A stronger resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards $1998.1, a Fibonacci retracement point. The yellow metal remains above support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1951.2. This average represents an important short-term level.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.730 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• PRICE: $24.962 @ 07:25 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: $24.206 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.892 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: $22.527 - Low Jul 6

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the recent move lower appears to have been a correction. The next bull trigger has been defined at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. A break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Jun 23, and pave the way for a climb towards $26.135, the May 5 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $23.892, the 50-day EMA.