MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures in Recovery Mode

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Futures in Recovery Mode

• S&P E-Minis have traded higher this week, extending the current bull cycle. Price has moved through resistance at the 20-day EMA - a bullish development. This highlights scope for a continuation higher that would expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract has traded higher this week. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, and resistance at 4990.00, Apr 15 high, highlighting a stronger reversal.
• GBPUSD has pulled back from its recent 1.2634 high (May 3) and the pair traded lower Wednesday. Firm near-term support has been defined at 1.2466, the May 1 low. USDJPY traded higher Wednesday as the pair extended its recovery from 151.86, the May 3 low. For now, gains are considered corrective and a bear threat remains present following last week’s volatile retracement. Recent gains in AUDUSD resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.6587, the Apr 29 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This opens 0.6668, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance.
• Gold is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. A bearish short-term condition is intact. The precious metal has recently traded through the 20-day EMA highlighting a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2255.0, the 50-day EMA. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. Gains are considered corrective. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA, strengthening a short-term bearish theme that highlights potential for a deeper correction.
• The trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and it remains bearish. The latest short-term gains appear to be a correction. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a continuation of the downtrend. Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday, extending the recovery from the Apr 25 low of 95.36. The contract has recently cleared the 20-day EMA, and this week’s gains have resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA at 97.64.

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact Inside The Bull Channel

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0845 Bear channel top drawn from the Dec 28 high
• RES 1: 1.0811 High May 3
• PRICE: 1.0745 @ 05:59 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.0724 Low May 3
• SUP 2: 1.0650/0601 Low May 1 / Low Apr 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 2023
• SUP 4: 1.0515 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high

EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A bullish short-term condition remains intact for now. The pair has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a continuation near-term and attention is on the bear channel top at 1.0845. The channel is drawn from the Dec 28 high and represents the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch has been defined at 1.0650, May 1 low. A break would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.2754 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.2667 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2634 High May 03
• PRICE: 1.2493 @ 06:09 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.2466 Low May 1 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

GBPUSD has pulled back from its recent 1.2634 high (May 3) and the pair traded lower Wednesday. Firm near-term support has been defined at 1.2466, the May 1 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and this would signal scope for an extension towards the bear trigger at 1.2300, the Apr 22 low. For bulls, a breach of 1.2634 would reinstate the recent upleg and open 1.2667, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8652 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8618 76.4% of the Apr 23 - 30 sell-off and the May 8 high
• PRICE: 0.8602 @ 06:25 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 0.8567/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

EURGBP traded higher Wednesday and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest climb undermines a bearish theme and strengthens a developing short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher would open 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key short-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight an important technical break. Initial support to watch is 0.8567, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective For Now

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 2: 157.00 61.8% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 1: 156.28 High May 2
• PRICE: 155.60 @ 16:10 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 154.46/151.86 20-day EMA / Low May 3
• SUP 2: 151.65 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 150.81 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 150.21 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 29 bull cycle

USDJPY traded higher Wednesday as the pair extended its recovery from 151.86, the May 3 low. For now, gains are considered corrective and a bear threat remains present following last week’s volatile retracement. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support at 151.65, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance to watch is 156.28, May 2 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 169.78 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 retracement
• RES 2: 168.66 High May 1
• RES 1: 167.39 High May 2
• PRICE: 167.21 @ 07:02 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 165.74 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 164.39/02 50-day EMA / Low May 3
• SUP 3: 163.02 Low Apr 19
• SUP 4: 162.28 Low Apr 12

EURJPY is holding on to its most recent gains. The medium-term trend direction is up and the recent volatile pullback is considered corrective. The move lower resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, at 164.39, and a trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 165.09. A clear break of these support points would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is 167.39, the May 2 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6705 High Jan 15
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6647 High May 3, 2024
• PRICE: 0.6571 @ 07:32 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 0.6538 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6465/6363 Low May 1 / Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23

Recent gains in AUDUSD resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.6587, the Apr 29 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This opens 0.6668, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. The pair has pulled back from its most recent highs, a move below 0.6465, the May 1 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3785 High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3738 @ 07:57 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.3634 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3610 Low May 3
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact for now and the recent move lower appears to have been a correction. Key support to watch is 1.3634, the 50-day EMA. This average was pierced last Friday, but remains intact as a support, for now. A continuation higher would expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 133.05 High Apr 12
• RES 3: 132.55 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 132.24 High Apr 19
• RES 1: 131.85 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.12 @ 05:39 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 130.50/129.53 Low May 3 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.26 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 128.88 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and it remains bearish. The latest short-term gains appear to be a correction. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a continuation of the downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 129.26, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 131.85, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be bullish.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Recent Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 2: 117.620 High Apr 19
• RES 3: 117.538 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 117.300 High May 7
• PRICE: 116.930 @ 05:49 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 116.650/230 Low May 3 / Low Apr 30
• SUP 2: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.964 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.752 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

A downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest bounce appears to be a correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low of 116.230 on Apr 30. Key support at 117.200, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared, confirming a continuation of the primary downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 116.135, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 117.538, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be viewed as a bullish signal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 105.565 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.348/395 20-day EMA / High May 3
• PRICE: 105.255 @ 05:57 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 105.180/045 Low May 3 / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 104.917 1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing

The trend direction in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains down. Recent gains are considered corrective. The break in April of 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The Apr 30 move lower reinforces current conditions. Sights are on the 105.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is 105.348, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced but remains intact for now.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Has Breached The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 99.19 76.4% of the Mar 12 - Apr 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 98.46 61.8% of the Mar 12 - Apr 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 98.23 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 97.95 @ Close May 8
• SUP 1: 97.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 96.43/95.36 Low May 3 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday, extending the recovery from the Apr 25 low of 95.36. The contract has recently cleared the 20-day EMA, and this week’s gains have resulted in a break of the the 50-day EMA at 97.64. This undermines the recent bear theme and a clear break the EMA would highlight a stronger short-term bullish condition and open 98.23 next, the Apr 12 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 95.36, the bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 120.28 High Mar 14
• RES 2: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 118.61/119.10 High May 6 / High Apr 10
• PRICE: 118.09 @ Close May 8
• SUP 1: 116.93/115.76 Low Apr 30 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 3: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.09 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. However, a continuation higher would expose key short-term resistance at 119.10, the Apr 10 high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish development and open 120.28, the Mar 14 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support at 115.76, the Apr 25 low. Clearance of this level resumes the bear leg.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Gains Expose The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5079.00 High Apr 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5043.00 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 5031.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 5018.00 @ 06:14 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 4890.80/4862.00 50-day EMA / Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4700.00 Round number support

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract has traded higher this week. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, and resistance at 4990.00, Apr 15 high, highlighting a stronger reversal. Wednesday’s break of 5006.00, the Apr 4 high, reinforces the current bullish condition. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5079.00, Apr 2 high. Key support is 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. Initial support to watch is 4890.80, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat For Now

• RES 4: 5333.50 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5285.00 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 5246.18 76.4% retracement of the Apr 1 - 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 5226.75 High May 7
• PRICE: 5204.50 @ 07:18 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 5136.79 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5036.25/4963.50 Low May 2 / Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4907.57 38.2% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4863.75 Low Jan 19

S&P E-Minis have traded higher this week, extending the current bull cycle. Price has moved through resistance at the 20-day EMA - a bullish development. This highlights scope for a continuation higher that would expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. Initial resistance is 5246.18, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 5036.25, the May 2 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N4) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $91.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.45/88.64 - 20-day EMA / High Apr 26
• PRICE: $83.85 @ 06:59 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $81.71 - Low May 8
• SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures remain vulnerable and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has cleared the 50-day EMA and the clear breach of this average signals scope for a deeper correction towards $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $91.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $88.64, Apr 26 high.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Short-Term Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $84.46/86.97 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $81.00 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $79.37 @ 07:12 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $76.89 - Low May 8
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $73.30 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg
• SUP 4: $71.47 - Low Feb 5

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. Gains are considered corrective. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA, strengthening a short-term bearish theme that highlights potential for a deeper correction. Scope is seen for a move to $76.07, Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance is at $84.46, the Apr 26 high.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2352.6/2431.5 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2316.7 @ 07:14 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $2277.4 - Low May 3
• SUP 2: $2255.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. A bearish short-term condition is intact. The precious metal has recently traded through the 20-day EMA highlighting a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2255.0, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle has allowed a significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $27.732/29.797 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $27.666 @ 08:09 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $26.210/018 - 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 2: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver has recovered from its recent lows. Initial resistance is seen at $27.732, the Apr 26 high. A break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. The key resistance and bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. Support at the 50-day EMA, at $26.210, remains intact. A clear breach of this average would instead confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started Apr 12.