MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Extends Last Week’s Bounce

Price Signal Summary – Gold Extends Last Week’s Bounce

• The short-term condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish following last week’s sell-off. Today’s gains are considered corrective. Price last week cleared key short-term support at 3960.75, the Mar 2 low and this confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since the Feb 2 reversal. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Friday. Price has moved below a key support at 4258.60 - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. A continuation lower would threaten the uptrend that has been in place since late September last year.
• GBPUSD traded higher Friday and the pair has started this week on a firmer note. Gains are considered corrective, however, attention is on resistance at 1.2147, the Feb 21 high. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension towards 1.2269, the Feb 14 high. The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. However, Friday’s move lower and today’s extension, highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback. The pair has traded below support at 135.26, the 50-day EMA. AUDUSD is trading higher today. Despite this climb, the trend condition remains bearish. Last Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish near-term view. The break lower confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart and prices have breached a key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low.
• Gold reversed sharply higher last week and the yellow metal has traded higher today. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension towards $1900.6, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key near-term resistance. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures last week has defined a key resistance at $80.94, Feb 7 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme that would open $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance.
• Bund futures reversed sharply higher late last week and the contract maintains a firmer tone. The strong impulsive rally is fast unwinding a recent oversold trend condition. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the focus is on 134.57, a Fibonacci retracement point. Gilt futures traded sharply higher Friday, extending the recovery from 99.20, the Feb 28 low. A number of key short-term resistance points have been cleared, strengthening the current bullish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Starts The Week On A Firm Note

• RES 4: 1.0839 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0779 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0737 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0724 @ 05:21 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 1.0640 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0574 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 1.0525 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support

EUR/USD is trading higher today, extending last week’s recovery from 1.0525, the Mar 8 low. Resistance at 1.0694 has been cleared, the Mar 6 / 7 high and this signals scope for a climb towards 1.0779 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Gains are considered corrective - for now. Support to watch is today’s intraday low of 1.0640 where a break is required to signal a top. This would refocus attention on 1.0525, the bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Cable Is Approaching A Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2296 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2269 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 1.2202 61.8% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2147 High Feb 21 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2118 @ 05:31 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 1.2013 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1908/1804 Intraday low / Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1736 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1711 Low Nov 14 2022

GBPUSD traded higher Friday and the pair has started this week on a firmer note. Gains are considered corrective, however, attention is on resistance at 1.2147, the Feb 21 high. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension towards 1.2269, the Feb 14 high. On the downside, initial support is 1.2013, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would signal a top and potentially expose key support at 1.1804, the Mar 8 low and bear trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.9066 High Sep 28
• RES 3: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• PRICE: 0.8852 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 0.8821 Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 0.8755 Low Feb 28 and key support and 100-dma
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP short-term conditions remain bullish despite the pullback from its recent highs. A resumption of gains would open 0.8929, the Feb 17 high and a break of this level would expose 0.8979, the Feb 3 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, a move below 0.8755, the Feb 28 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct 21 and Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 138.17/25 High Dec 15 / 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 135.13/136.99 20-day EMA / High Mar 10
• PRICE: 134.31 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 11
• SUP 1: 133.56 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 132.57 50.0% retracement of the Jan 18 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: 131.31 61.8% retracement of the Jan 18 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: 129.81 Low Feb 10

The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. However, Friday’s move lower and today’s extension, highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback. The pair has traded below support at 135.26, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 132.57, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, the bull trigger and key resistance has been defined at 137.91, the Mar 8 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 3: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 145.10 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 144.17 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 142.91 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 142.15 Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13

The recent pullback in EURJPY appears to be a correction. Trend conditions remain bullish and recent gains have maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of the uptrend would open 145.80, a Fibonacci retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 142.15, the Feb 24 low. First support lies at 142.91, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6810 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6746/84 20-day EMA / High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 1
• PRICE: 0.6666 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 0.6547 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD is trading higher today. Despite this climb, the trend condition remains bearish. Last Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish near-term view. The break lower confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart and prices have breached a key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3935 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3862 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 1.3736@ 08:05 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 1.3705/3665 High Dec 16 / High Feb 24
• SUP 2: 1.3618 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3533 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone despite the pullback from Friday’s high of 1.3862. The move down is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Last week’s rally strengthened the bullish theme. Price cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and has also traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards the 2.0% 10-dma envelope of 1.3958. Initial support is seen at 1.3705, the recent breakout level.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Strong Reversal

• RES 4: 136.22 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 135.57 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear leg
• RES 2: 134.57 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.30 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 133.67 @ 04:43 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 132.37 Low Mar 10 a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 131.07 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 130.35 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

Bund futures reversed sharply higher late last week and the contract maintains a firmer tone. The strong impulsive rally is fast unwinding a recent oversold trend condition. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the focus is on 134.57, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial support lies at Friday’s intraday low of 132.37. A break of this support is required to highlight a bearish threat once again.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Holding On To Last Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 117.230 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 117.040 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 117.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 116.730 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 116.490 @ 04:48 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 116.060 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.700 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 114.820 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 114.740 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded sharply higher Friday and the contract remains firm today - price has cleared the 20-day EMA. The impulsive rally is very quickly unwinding a recent oversold condition in the downtrend. The move higher has exposed key short-term resistance at 116.890, the Feb 24 high where a break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, a firm near-term support is seen at 115.700, Friday’s intraday low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 105.345 High High Feb 16
• RES 2: 105.260 High Feb 24 and key resistance
• RES 1: 105.110 Intraday high
• PRICE: 105.080 @ 05:24 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 104.695 Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 104.335 Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.307 4.764 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.000 Round number support

Schatz futures traded sharply higher Friday, confirming a short-term reversal from last week’s low of 104.335 on Mar 9. The rally is allowing a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. The 105.00 handle has been cleared and sights are on key short-term resistance at 105.260, the Feb 25 high. A break of this level would strengthen the current bullish theme. On the downside, initial firm support is at Friday’s intraday low of 104.695.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Impulsive Rally

• RES 4: 103.55 3.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• RES 3: 103.22 2.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• RES 2: 103.01 2.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• RES 1: 102.91 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 102.47 @ Close Mar 13
• SUP 1: 102.00/101.13 Round number support / Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 100.91 High Mar 9 high and a gap low
• SUP 3: 100.06 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 99.32 Low Mar 7

Gilt futures traded sharply higher Friday, extending the recovery from 99.20, the Feb 28 low. A number of key short-term resistance points have been cleared, strengthening the current bullish theme. This signals scope for a climb towards 103.01 and 103.22 next, Fibonacci extensions. Key near-term support is at 101.13, Friday’s low. A break of this level is required to signal a top.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 116.35 High Feb 3
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.08 High Feb 9
• RES 1: 114.47 Intraday high
• PRICE: 113.74 @ Close Mar 13
• SUP 1: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: 110.79 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 109.55 1.618 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing

BTP futures traded higher Friday to extend the reversal from 110.25, the Mar 2 low. The rally Friday resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 113.43, the Feb 24 high. The move strengthens short-term bullish conditions and a continuation higher would open resistance at 115.08, the Feb 9 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 113.02, last Thursday’s high and a gap low on the daily chart.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Remains Below Former Bull Channel Support

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4328.00 High Mar 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4229.00 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 4169.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4097.00 Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3955.00 Low Jan 5

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Friday. Price has moved below a key support at 4258.60 - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. A continuation lower would threaten the uptrend that has been in place since late September last year. An initial downside objective would be 4169.30, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at the 4328.00, the Mar 6 high and is the bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 4045.27 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3967.75 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: 3881.00 Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 3853.00 Low Jan 6
• SUP 3: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3778.00 Low Nov 3

The short-term condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish following last week’s sell-off. Today’s gains are considered corrective. Price last week cleared key short-term support at 3960.75, the Mar 2 low and this confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since the Feb 2 reversal. The move lower signals potential for an extension towards 3822.00, the Dec 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4045.27, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Remains Vulnerable Despite Bounce

• RES 4: $91.48 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $82.98 @ 06:51 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: $80.25 - Low Feb 23 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $78.84 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger

Brent futures remain vulnerable following last week’s bearish price action. A key resistance has been defined at $86.75, the Mar 7 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Key short-term support lies at $80.25, the Feb 23 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish threat and open $78.48, the Feb 6 low. Initial resistance is at $84.00, last Thursday’s high.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $86.05 - High Feb 14
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $78.06/80.94 - High Mar 9 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $76.79 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 11
• SUP 1: $74.77 73.80 - Low Mar 10 / Low Feb 22 and key support
• SUP 2: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures last week has defined a key resistance at $80.94, Feb 7 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme that would open $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. The contract remains vulnerable and sights are on $73.80, the Feb 22 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance is seen at $78.06, the Mar 9 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: $1923.2 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - 28 sell-off
• RES 3: $1918.6 - High Feb 3
• RES 2: $1900.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - 28 sell-off
• RES 1: $1889.4 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1881.1 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: $1844.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1798.0 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

Gold reversed sharply higher last week and the yellow metal has traded higher today. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension towards $1900.6, a Fibonacci retracement point and a key near-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1844.3, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to instead signal a top - this would expose the bear trigger at $1804.9. Feb 28 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.860 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.306 - High Mar 6
• PRICE: $20.676 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 13
• SUP 1: $19.904 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 3: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3 2022

Silver remains in a downtrend and last Tuesday’s sharp sell-off confirmed a resumption of the trend. Short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The break lower has resulted in a print below the psychological $20.00 handle and this paves the way for a move towards $19.232, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $21.306, the Mar 6 high.