MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold More Stable Off Lows
Price Signal Summary – Gold More Stable Off Lows
- The move lower last week in S&P E-Minis appears corrective. Medium-trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA. Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The move lower last week marks a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Support at 1.2665, the Aug 8 low, has been cleared. The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and Friday’s pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Price is also trading at its recent lows. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high has reinforced current conditions. Attention is on $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent move down has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and the metal is trading at its recent lows.
- Bund futures are unchanged and the contract is trading below its recent highs. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 3: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.0742 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0601/0683 Low Apr 16 / Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.0538 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 1.0484 1.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0377 1.236 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. Note that the trend is oversold, however, a clear reversal signal is required to highlight a short-term base. Recent weakness confirmed an extension of the impulsive bear leg, and moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position. Sights are on 1.0484 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.0742, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 1.2881/3048 20-day EMA / High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.2768 Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.2634 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 1.2597 Low Nov 15
- SUP 2: 1.2568 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - Sep 26 bull cycle
- SUP 3. 1.2510 Low May 14
- SUP 4: 1.2446 Low ASep 9
A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Support at 1.2665, the Aug 8 low, has been cleared, paving the way for a move towards 1.2568, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2881 the 20-day EMA. A short-term bounce would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Bounce Exposes Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.8366 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8344 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP traded higher Friday. Short-term gains strengthen a potential reversal signal on Nov 12 - a bullish engulfing candle pattern. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next key resistance at 0.8367, the 50-day EMA. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 0.8260, the Nov 11 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.8203, the Mar 7 2022 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 158.68 2.50 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 2: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 156.75 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 154.53 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 152.88 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 150.63 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and Friday’s pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 156.88 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 152.88, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would signal the start of a corrective phase.
EURJPY TECHS: Correction Extends
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.95 @ 07:52 GMT Nov 16
- SUP 1: 162.27 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
EURJPY traded lower Friday. The current bear cycle appears to be a correction. Trend signals remain bullish and attention is on the bull trigger at 166.69, the Oct 31 high. The cross has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This exposes the next firm support at 161.85, the Oct 17 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 166.69. Initial resistance is at 165.04, the Nov 15 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Key SUpport Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6647/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6582 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6457 @ 07:56 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 0.6441 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Price is also trading at its recent lows. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. This opens 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6582, the 20-day EMA. The reversal trigger is at 0.6688, the Nov 7 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.4224 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4140 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4126 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 1.4106 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 1.4090 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- SUP 2: 1.3910/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 1.3797 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
A strong rally in USDCAD last week reinforces the current bullish condition. The pair has cleared a number of resistance points and price is trading at the recent high. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition. 1.4140 marks the next upside level, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3910, the 20-day EMA. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 132.95 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.38/74 20-day EMA / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 132.29 @ 05:37 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 131.28/130.58 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures are unchanged and the contract is trading below its recent highs. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance is 132.38, the 20-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would be seen as an early bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.894 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.830 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 118.670 @ 05:49 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 118.150/680 Low Nov 14 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures on Oct 30 reinforced the current bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off opens 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. The latest recovery appears corrective - for now. The 20-day EMA has been breached and resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 118.894. A clear breach of it would alter the picture.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Testing Trendline Resistance
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.880 High Nov 14
- PRICE: 106.810 @ 06:01 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 106.645 Low NOv 8
- SUP 2: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Schatz futures are trading closer to their recent highs. Despite the current bull cycle, a bearish trend condition remains intact. The trend is oversold and the latest move higher is allowing this condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and the bear trigger. The trendline at 106.805, drawn from the Oct 1 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose 106.945, the Oct 29 high.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 3: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- RES 2: 95.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 94.64/73 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
- PRICE: 93.76 @ Close Nov 15
- SUP 1: 92.97/53 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. This signals scope for an extension towards 92.23, the 2.236 projection. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible base. Initial firm resistance to watch is 94.73, Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Has Been Pierced
- RES 4: 122.62 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 121.50 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.81 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.69 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 120.47 @ Close Nov 15
- SUP 1: 119.12/117.88 Low Nov 13 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.34 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 116.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures traded higher last week. Despite the latest bounce, the contract maintains a bearish tone. A resumption of the downtrend would refocus attention on 117.70, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 119.12, the Nov 13 low. 120.25, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break of the average would cancel the bearish threat. This would open 121.50, a Fibonacci retracement point.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4863.42 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4812.00 @ 06:16 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 4706.00 Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The move lower last week marks a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, Nov 6 high, where a break would highlight a reversal.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5974.25/6053.25 High Nov 15 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5911.50 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 5876.75 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5826.69 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
The move lower last week in S&P E-Minis appears corrective. Medium-trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to monitor is 5826.69, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $71.22 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Short-term conditions in Brent futures remain bearish. Resistance is intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The extension down exposes support at $69.68, Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance is at $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Theme Remains Intact
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.88 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $67.07 @ 07:12 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high has reinforced current conditions. Attention is on $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $72.88, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2710.4/2750.0 - High Nov 11 / 5
- RES 2: $2657.6 - 20-day EMA
- RES 1: $2635.6 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $2585.9 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: $2415.9 - 38.2% retracement of the Oct 6 ‘23 - Oct 31 bull leg
The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent move down has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and the metal is trading at its recent lows. The breach of the EMAs signals scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on $2511.1 next, the Sep 18 low. Firm resistance is seen at $2657.6, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase Still In Play
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.649 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 30.624@ 08:10 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: $29.677 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 appears to be a correction - for now. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and cleared $30.681, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.649, the 20-day EMA.