MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Resumes Primary Uptrend

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Gold Confirms Resumption of Primary Uptrend

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday, reinforcing the current bull cycle and confirming an extension of the reversal that started Aug 5. Price has cleared resistance at 2600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher, starting the week on a bullish note and extending the recovery that started Aug 5. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4867.41.
• GBPUSD started the week on a firmer note, trading to a fresh short-term trend high and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The bullish extension highlights a stronger reversal. USDJPY continues to trade below last week’s high and resistance at the 20-day EMA remains intact. The trend direction is down and recent gains appear to have been a correction. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70. AUDUSD started the week on a bullish note as the pair on Monday, extended the reversal that started Aug 5. The move higher cancels a recent bearish theme. Price has cleared 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg.
• WTI futures have been unable to hold on to recent gains and the contract continues to trade lower. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and this has exposed key support at $71.67, the Aug 5 low and the bear trigger. Gold remains bullish and is holding on to its latest gains. Last Friday’s rally delivered a fresh all-time high and the breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend.
• Bund futures are unchanged. A bullish trend condition remains intact and recent gains reinforce this theme. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of bullish price action would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends  

• RES 4: 1.1229 High Jul 20 2023
• RES 3: 1.1150 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 2: 1.1139 High Dec 29 2023 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1088  Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1079 @ 05:44 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 1.1014/0921 Low Aug 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0867 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bullish and Monday’ strong gains reinforce current conditions. Resistance at 1.1008, the Aug 5 high, has recently been cleared and this confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.1139 next, the Dec 29 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Note moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend condition. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0936, the 20-day EMA.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play      

• RES 4: 1.3114 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing    
• RES 3: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3013 High Jul 18 
• RES 1: 1.2997 High Aug 19
• PRICE: 1.2980 @ 005:53 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 1.2840 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.2801/2665 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2584 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle

GBPUSD started the week on a firmer note, trading to a fresh short-term trend high and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The bullish extension highlights a stronger reversal. 1.2955, 76.4% of the Jul 17 - Aug 8 bear leg, has been cleared and this signals scope for a climb towards 1.3044, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2840, the 20-day EMA.               

EURGBP TECHS: Support Holds For Now 

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28    
• RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8593/8625 High Aug 14 / 8 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8534 @ 06:09 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 0.8508 Low Aug 19 
• SUP 2: 0.8496 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8454 Low Aug 2  
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP is trading closer to its recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play - for now. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8518, has been pierced. A firmer support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8496. Recent impulsive gains highlight potential for 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key resistance. Note that MA studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.     

USDJPY TECHS: Price Remains Below The 20-Day EMA      

• RES 4: 155.22 High Jul 30   
• RES 3: 152.77 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.89 High Aug 1     
• RES 1: 149.47 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 147.18 @ 06:38 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 144.29 Low Aug 7   
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY continues to trade below last week’s high and resistance at the 20-day EMA remains intact. The trend direction is down and recent gains appear to have been a correction. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the  bear trend. Resistance to watch is 149.77, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.    

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs   

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14  
• RES 3: 166.12 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 164.13 200 DMA      
• RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 163.02 @ 06:48 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12   
• SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support

EURJPY is trading closer to its recent highs. The outlook remains bearish, and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Note that the latest move higher has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance at 163.44, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 166.12. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends   

• RES 4: 0.6799 High Jul 11 and key resistance      
• RES 3: 0.6764 High Jul 16                  
• RES 2: 0.6744 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 0.6738 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6728 @ 07:58 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 0.6620 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23

AUDUSD started the week on a bullish note as the pair on Monday, extended the reversal that started Aug 5. The move higher cancels a recent bearish theme. Price has cleared 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. The clear break of this price point strengthens a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 0.6799, the Jul 11 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6571, the Aug 15 low.      

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Leg Extends   

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
• RES 3: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3791 High Aug 7   
• RES 1: 1.3737 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3628 @ 08:05 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 1.3611 Low Jul 12  
• SUP 2: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD traded lower Monday and this marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and has resulted in the break of a number of support points, exposing the next key level at 1.3589, the Jun 11 low. A break of this support would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3737, the Aug 19 high.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 137.26 3.50 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing         
• RES 3: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 2: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 135.17/136.28 High Aug 14 / 5 and the bull trigger                      
• PRICE: 134.14 @ 05:21 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 133.95 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 133.05 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15  

Bund futures are unchanged. A bullish trend condition remains intact and recent gains reinforce this theme. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The recent pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 133.93, the 20-day EMA.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Monitoring Support                                          

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing  
• RES 2: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing      
• RES 1: 118.300/119.090 High Aug 14 / 5 and the bull trigger                
• PRICE: 117.660 @ 05:31 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 117.632 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 117.120/116.320 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22   
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11 
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

The uptrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high still appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, Jun 14 high. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 119.234, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 117.636, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact For Now 

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 106.165 @ 05:47 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 106.154 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.959/630 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22  
• SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

Schatz futures are in consolidation mode. An uptrend remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. For now, the contract remains above an initial firm support at 106.154, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 105.959. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Trend Structure Is Bullish                                          

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 100.80/101.46 High Aug 14 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 99.69 @ Close Aug 19
• SUP 1: 99.50 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 98.82/97.46 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 96.96 Low Jul 3 
• SUP 4: 96.57 Low Jul 1

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of bullish price action would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial key support lies at 99.50, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.      

BTP TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North  

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00 Psychological round number 
• PRICE: 119.19 @ Close Aug 19
• SUP 1: 118.79/118.04 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

The medium-term trend in BTP futures remains bullish and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. The contract has breached resistance at 119.57, Aug 2 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. The break opens the 120.00 handle next. Price remains above initial firm support at 118.79, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 118.04. A clear breach of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Breaches Resistance At The 50-Day EMA         

• RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6    
• RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12      
• RES 2: 4951.00 High Jul 31 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 4898.00 High Aug 19   
• PRICE: 4895.00 @ 06:18 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 4797.06 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont)

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher, starting the week on a bullish note and extending the recovery that started Aug 5. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4867.41. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low.             

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bull Cycle Extends        

• RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing  
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
• RES 1: 5664.00 High Jul 18       
• PRICE: 5362.25 @ 07:28 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 5470.32 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5319.50 Low Aug 9 
• SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8 
• SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger

S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday, reinforcing the current bull cycle and confirming an extension of the reversal that started Aug 5. Price has cleared resistance at 2600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, support to watch lies at 5470.32, the 50-day EMA. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Move Lower Exposes Key Support  

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low 
• RES 1: $79.96/82.40 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $76.92 @ 07:03 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $75.05 - Low Aug 5 and a key support  
• SUP 2: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

Brent futures continue to trade below their recent highs and the contract maintains a softer tone as it continues to weaken. The extent of the pullback undermines a recent bullish theme and instead, the move signals scope for a test of key support at $75.05, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started Apr 12. Initial firm resistance is seen at $79.96, the 20-day EMA.    

WTI TECHS: (U4) Bullish Despite The Latest Pullback   

• RES 4: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $83.58 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $82.27 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $76.94/80.16 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $73.75 @ 06:04 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $71.67 - Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $67.37 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

WTI futures have been unable to hold on to recent gains and the contract continues to trade lower. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and this has exposed key support at $71.67, the Aug 5 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend that started Apr 12. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $76.94, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $80.16, the Aug 12 high.    

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance    
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2509.9 - High Aug 19                  
• PRICE: $2498.4 @ 07:17 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $2439.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2400.4/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25 
• SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7 
• SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support

Gold remains bullish and is holding on to its latest gains. Last Friday’s rally delivered a fresh all-time high and the breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2528.4, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2439.4, the 20-day EMA.        

SILVER TECHS: Breaches Resistance   

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $29.728 - 61.8% of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg                
• PRICE: $29.452 @ 08:13 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $26.451- Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and gains are - for now - considered corrective. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh near-term cycle low and this exposed the next key support at $26.018, May 2 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and this is a concern for bears. The next resistance to watch is $29.728, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear breach of it would strengthen a bullish threat.