MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Important Resistance Defined in EUR/USD

Price Signal Summary - Important Resistance Defined in EUR/USD

• The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. Bullish conditions have been reinforced by the recent break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, resistance at 4578.50, Feb 9 high has been cleared. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract traded above the 50-day EMA last week. This EMA represents an important resistance - at 3860.90 today - and a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7.
• EURUSD remains below last week’s highs. An important S/T resistance has been defined at 1.1185, the Mar 31 high. A number of important resistance points were cleared last week, including the 50-day EMA - at 1.1143 today. USDJPY remains in a corrective cycle following last week’s pullback from 125.09, the Mar 28 high. Initial support to watch is at 121.28, the Mar 31 low. A break of this level would allow for an extension lower and open 120.95, the Mar 24 low ahead of the 120.00 handle.
• Gold is range bound and remains above $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. The outlook is bearish following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. WTI futures traded lower Friday. The recent move lower from $116.64, the Mar 24 high, highlights a short-term bearish threat. The contract has also recently breached the 20-day EMA.
• Short-term gains in Bunds are considered corrective - a correction is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. The trend remains down following recent weakness and the extension below 160.00. Gilt futures remain inside its range and continue to consolidate above recent lows. The trend condition remains bearish. The recent break of 120.26, Mar 24 low, marked a resumption of the broader downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Fails To Remain Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1274 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.1258 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1222 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1185/1223 High Mar 31 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 1.1049 @ 06:09 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 1.1028/0945 Low Apr 1 / Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.0898/06 Low Mar 14 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD remains below last week’s highs. An important S/T resistance has been defined at 1.1185, the Mar 31 high. A number of important resistance points were cleared last week, including the 50-day EMA - at 1.1143 today. Short-term conditions remain bullish, however, a failure to remain above the 50-day EMA is a concern for bulls. A break above 1.1185 opens 1.1232 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch is at 1.0945.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.3398 61.8% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3292/98 50-day EMA / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 1.3225 High Mar 25 and 23
• PRICE: 1.3120 @ 06:15 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 1.3051/3000 Low Mar 29 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the recent reversal from 1.3298, Mar 23 high, reinforces this theme. Cable has also recently failed to remain above a number of short-term resistance points and the pullback means price continues to trade below a key resistance at 1.3292, the 50-day EMA. The focus is on 1.3000, Mar 15 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a short-term reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 28 2021
• RES 3: 0.8624 High Oct 1 2021
• RES 2: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2022
• RES 1: 0.8512/56 High Mar 31 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 0.8421 @ 06:25 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 0.8386 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 0.8296 Low Mar 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP remains below last Thursday’s high of 0.8512. The recent pullback is likely a correction and the outlook remains bullish. A key short-term resistance at 0.8458, Mar 17 high, was breached last week highlighting a reversal. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7 and signals scope for an extension near-term. The focus is on 0.8556, the upper band of the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Support is at 0.8386.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 126.26 3.382 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 3: 125.86 High Jun 5 2015 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 125.28 High Aug 12 2015
• RES 1: 123.20/125.09 High Mar 30 / High Mar 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 122.67 @ 06:32 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 121.28 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 120.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 120.10/00 20-day EMA / Round number support
• SUP 4: 119.44 Low Mar 22

USDJPY remains in a corrective cycle following last week’s pullback from 125.09, the Mar 28 high. Initial support to watch is at 121.28, the Mar 31 low. A break of this level would allow for an extension lower and open 120.95, the Mar 24 low ahead of the 120.00 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 123.20, the Mar 30 high with the bull trigger unchanged at 125.09. Clearance of 125.09 resumes the uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 140.03 High Jun 23 2015
• RES 3: 139.00 High Aug 21 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 138.62 High Aug 25 2015
• RES 1: 137.50/53 High Feb 2 ‘18 and major resistance / High Mar 28
• PRICE: 135.53 @ 06:37 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 133.94 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 132.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 132.78 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.21 50-day EMA

The EURJPY outlook remains bullish and any near-term pullback is considered corrective. The cross traded to a fresh trend high on Mar 28 and breached a key resistance at 134.13, Jun 1 2021 high, on Mar 24. This strengthens bullish conditions. The trend is however in overbought territory although key short-term support levels remain intact for now. Initial firm support to watch is seen at 133.94, Mar 28 low. 137.50/53 is the bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 0.7617/38 High Jun 25 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.7599 High Jul 6 2021
• RES 2: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7540/65 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 0.7513 @ 06:50 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 0.7450 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 0.7414/7376 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 0.7320 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.7283 Low Mar 17

AUDUSD is in consolidation mode and this recent pause appears to be a bull flag formation. The trend direction remains up following the Mar 22 break of 0.7441, Mar 7 high, that confirmed an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This also means the bull cycle that started Jan 28, remains intact. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7414, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.2778 High Mar 16
• RES 3: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 2: 1.2649 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2593 High Mar 28 and the 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2506 @ 06:56 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 1.2430 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 1.2400 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
• SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021

USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows and remains vulnerable. The pair has traded below 1.2451 - the Jan 19 low. This has reinforced bearish conditions and extends the downtick triggered by the recent break of 1.2552, 76.4% of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally. The break lower opens 1.2387 initially ahead of 1.2328. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2593, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 162.73 High Mar 14
• RES 3: 161.81 High Mar 16
• RES 2: 160.26/31/160.46 20-day EMA / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 159.05 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 158.28 @ 05:06 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 156.05/00 Low Mar 29 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 155.70 Low Dec 7 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 155.03 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 154.81 Low Nov 9 2015 (cont)

S/T gains in Bunds are considered corrective - a correction is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. The trend remains down following recent weakness and the extension below 160.00. The continuation lower also confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. A resumption of weakness would open 156.00. Firm resistance is at 160.31, the Mar 23 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 131.550 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 130.870 High Mar 18
• RES 2: 129.931 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.140 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 128.730 @ 05:09 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 127.770/750 Low Mar 29 / Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)
• SUP 2: 127.540 Low Jun 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.520 Low Sep 3 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 127.280 Low Sep 18 2014 (cont)

Bobl futures remain above recent lows. The trend however is down and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness once again confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend to maintain the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on a move towards 127.750 next, the Jun 5 2015 low (cont). The 20-day EMA at 129.931 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 111.080 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 110.810 High Mar 31
• PRICE: 110.715 @ 05:12 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 110.465 Low Mar 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.410 Low May 8 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 110.400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 110.360 Low Apr 29 2014 (cont)

Schatz futures remain vulnerable despite a recent corrective bounce. Last week’s fresh cycle lows strengthened bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend plus, it marked an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 111.00 has recently been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards 110.410 next. Firm resistance is seen at 111.080, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 121.65 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 121.19 @ Close Apr 1
• SUP 1: 119.86 Low Mar 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 3: 119.36 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures remain inside its range and continue to consolidate above recent lows. The trend condition remains bearish. The recent break of 120.26, Mar 24 low, marked a resumption of the broader downtrend and resulted in a print below 120.00. Further weakness would open 119.75, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is at 122.72, Mar 18 high. A break would highlight a more meaningful short-term reversal.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 143.85 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• RES 2: 140.71 High Mar 11
• RES 1: 139.18 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 137.54 @ Close Apr 1
• SUP 1: 135.69 Low Mar 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 135.43 Low May 7 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 134.61 Low Apr 24 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.00 Round number support

BTP futures remain above recent lows and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week marked an extension of the breach of support at 138.60, Feb 16 low, and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. It also highlights a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 135.43, May 7 2020 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 139.18.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 4189.00 Hi Feb 1
• RES 3: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 2: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 3944.00/3965.50 High Mar 29 / High Feb 23
• PRICE: 3847.00 @ 05:32 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3555.50 Low Mar 18 / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract traded above the 50-day EMA last week. This EMA represents an important resistance - at 3860.90 today - and a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7. The move higher has also confirmed a bull flag breakout on the daily chart. The focus is on 3965.50, Feb 23 high. Initial support is at 3735.00, Mar 18 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): 50-Day EMA Still Seen As The Key Support

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4633.44 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 24 downleg
• PRICE: 4546.25 06:53 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: 4444.75 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4320.25 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)

The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. Bullish conditions have been reinforced by the recent break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, resistance at 4578.50, Feb 9 high has been cleared. The break opens 4663.50, Jan 18 high. Initial firm support is at 4444.75, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $134.91 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 2: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $1112.28/119.74 - High Mar 30 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $105.17 @ 06:59 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: $102.19/100.035 - Low Mar 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $94.61 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $90.58 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $84.74 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures remain above $102.19, the Mar 29 low, however the contract remains vulnerable. The recent move lower from $119.74, Mar 24 high, highlights a short-term bearish threat. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and this suggests scope for a deeper short-term retracement that has opened the 50-day EMA, at $100.03. The 50-day average marks a key pivot support. $119.74 remains the key short-term resistance.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Watching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $126.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $116.64/118.34 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $108.75/112.93 -High Mar 30 / High Mar 28
• PRICE: $100.25 @ 07:07 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: $98.44/97.38 - Low Mar 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures traded lower Friday. The recent move lower from $116.64, the Mar 24 high, highlights a short-term bearish threat. The contract has also recently breached the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA at $97.38. This average represents an important pivot level and a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, clearance of $116.64 would reinstate recent bullish conditions.

GOLD TECHS: Range Bound

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1966.1 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $1919.9 @ 07:20 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold is range bound and remains above $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. The outlook is bearish following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. This has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA, at $1906.6 and lies just ahead of the Mar 15 low of $1895.3. Both were probed last week, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Initial resistance is $1966.1.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $25.847 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $24.778 @ 07:25 GMT Apr 4
• SUP 1: $24.528 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver resistance has been defined at $25.847, Mar 24 high. A short-term bearish theme remains intact and potential is seen for a deeper retracement. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $24.528 that was probed last week. This EMA marks an important support and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on $26.943, the Mar 8 high.