MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Monday Pullback in GBP/USD Looks Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Monday Pullback in GBP/USD Looks Corrective

• S&P E-minis traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher today. Attention turns to resistance at 4362.00, the May 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development and signal scope for an extension higher towards key resistance at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high on the continuation chart.
• Yesterday’s move lower in GBPUSD appears to be a correction and a bull cycle remains in play. Resistance at 1.2545, Jun 2 high, was cleared last week, and yesterday’s early gains resulted in a print above 1.2592, 76.4% of the May 10 - 25 downleg. USDJPY is unchanged. The trend condition remains bullish and attention is on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The line intersects at 141.30 today. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play and the pair is trading higher once again. Price is through 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May. This reinforces current bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6818, the May 10 high and a key resistance.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal continues to challenge trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1960.2. WTI futures continue to trade below resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high. The pullback from this level reinforces a bearish theme and yesterday’s sell-off marked an extension of the latest move lower.
• Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. However, for now the latest recovery remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has breached resistance at 134.67. Gilt futures remain below its recent highs and a bearish theme is intact. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downward trendline market.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0812 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0790 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.0781 @ 05:42 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 1.0551 Low Mar 16

EURUSD traded (briefly) higher Monday and pierced initial resistance at 1.0779, the Jun 2 high. A clear breach of 1.0790 would improve short-term conditions for bulls and allow for a stronger correction. This would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0812, where a clear break would further strengthen a bullish theme, suggesting scope for a continuation higher. Key support has been defined at 1.0635, the May 31 and marks the bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2772 High Apr 26 2022
• RES 3: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2641 High May 11
• RES 1: 1.2599 High June 12
• PRICE: 1.2534 @ 06:03 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 1.2468/27 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2308 Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

Yesterday’s move lower in GBPUSD appears to be a correction and a bull cycle remains in play. Resistance at 1.2545, Jun 2 high, was cleared last week, and yesterday’s early gains resulted in a print above 1.2592, 76.4% of the May 10 - 25 downleg. A clear break of this level would expose key resistance at 1.2680, May 10 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2369, Jun 5 low. First support is 1.2468, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8701 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8637 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8610 @ 06:40 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 0.8541 Low Jun 9 / 12 low
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8512/8499 1.0% 10-dma env / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle

EURGBP has recovered from its recent 0.8541 low. The primary trend direction remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective with initial resistance at 0.8637, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a downtrend and recent fresh lows have reinforced bearish conditions. A move lower and a break of 0.8541, the Jun 9 and 12 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance At The Channel Top Remains Intact

• RES 4: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.45/141.30 High Jun 5 / Bull channel top from Jan 16 low
• PRICE: 139.45 @ 06:49 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 138.80/45 20-day EMA / Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 137.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY is unchanged. The trend condition remains bullish and attention is on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The line intersects at 141.30 today. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a strong reversal lower would instead highlight a potential top and signal scope for a deeper pullback inside the channel. Support is at 138.80, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 151.07 High May 29
• PRICE: 150.48 @ 07:04 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 149.46/148.59 20-day EMA / Low May 31
• SUP 2: 148.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 147.61 Low May 16
• SUP 4: 146.67 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The broader theme in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross continues to climb, extending recent gains. Price has traded above resistance at 150.20, the Jun 5 high, and a continuation higher would open 151.07, May 29 high. Key resistance is at 151.61, the May 2 high and also represents an important bull trigger. On the downside, key short-term support is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 148.10. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6812 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6773 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 0.6749 @ 16:49 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 0.6751 Lowe Jun 9
• SUP 2: 0.6634 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6567/6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play and the pair is trading higher once again. Price is through 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May. This reinforces current bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6818, the May 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a strong reversal is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. Initial firm support is seen at 0.6634, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 1.3499 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3466 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3376 @ 16:54 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 1.3313 Low Jun 09
• SUP 2: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.3187 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a softer tone and traded to new multi-month lows Friday. The pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The resumption of weakness exposes 1.3302, the Apr 14 lows and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3466, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 136.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 2: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 134.77/95 / High Jun 12 / 6
• PRICE: 134.52 @ 05:12 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 133.51 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 133.00/132.97 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally / Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 132.33 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support

Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. However, for now the latest recovery remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has breached resistance at 134.67, the Jun 7 high and attention is on 134.95, the Jun 6 high. A break would expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. On the downside, a reversal lower open 132.12, May 26 low and bear trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 117.010 High Jun 7
• PRICE: 116.860 @ 05:16 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 116.540/250 Low Jun 12 / 8
• SUP 2: 116.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 115.970 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 115.870 Low May 26 and key support

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and for now, the latest recovery is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 117.010 and 117.200, the Jun 7 and 6 highs respectively. Clearance of this resistance zone would strengthen a bullish theme and expose key resistance at 117.700, the Jun 1 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose key near-term support at 116.250, the Jun 8 low. A break of 116.250 would be bearish.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 105.975 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.815 High Jun 4
• RES 1: 105.655 High Jun 6 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 105.490 @ 05:31 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 105.335 Low Jun 6
• SUP 2: 105.330 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 104.960 Low Low Mar 13 (cont)

Schatz futures remain below 105.875, the Jun 1 high. The recent recovery is considered corrective - for now. A bearish theme remains intact and the focus is on key short-term support at 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started in March and open the 105.00 handle. Key short-term resistance to watch is seen at 105.655, the Jun 6 high. A break would alter the picture.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.64 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 96.63/97.06 High Jun 9 / 6
• PRICE: 95.43 @ Close Jun 12
• SUP 1: 95.10 Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: 95.02 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: 94.91/21 Low May 30 / May 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 94.00 Round number support

Gilt futures remain below its recent highs and a bearish theme is intact. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downward trendline market. The bear trigger is 94.21, the May 26 low. Clearance of this level would open the 94.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance to watch is 97.64, the Jun 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.33 0.764 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 117.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 116.86 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 116.44 @ Close Jun 13
• SUP 1: 114.97 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded higher Monday and in process, the contract cleared resistance at 116.36, Jun 2 high and short-term bull trigger. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a climb towards the 117.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.83, the Jun 8 low. A break would be bearish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4362.00 High May 29
• PRICE: 4346.00 @ 06.15 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher today. Attention turns to resistance at 4362.00, the May 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development and signal scope for an extension higher towards key resistance at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high on the continuation chart. The recent break of a number of support levels still highlights a potential bearish threat. A reversal lower would expose 4216.00, May 31 low and bear trigger.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Heading North

• RES 4: 4492.25 2.00 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4452.42 1.764 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4427.79 1.618 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4397.25 @ 05:43 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 4327.50/4267.69 Low Jun 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4210.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

S&P E-minis traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. The focus is on the 4400.00 handle next. The 50-day EMA, at 4217.21 marks a key support. A break would signal a reversal. Initial firm support is at 4279.15, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $75.59/78.73 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $72.30 @ 06:59 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures continue to trade below last week’s high of $78.73, a key short-term resistance. The outlook is bearish and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $71.30/75.06 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $07.05 @ 07:05 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $66.80 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $63.90 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures continue to trade below resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high. The pullback from this level reinforces a bearish theme and yesterday’s sell-off marked an extension of the latest move lower. Support at $67.03, May 31 low, has been pierced, a clear break would open $63.90, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. A break of resistance at $75.06 is required to signal a reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Testing Trendline Support

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1959.7 @ 07:20 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal continues to challenge trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1960.2. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this resistance would signal a short-term reversal instead.

SILVER TECHS: Testing Resistance

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $24.492/530 - Low Apr 25 and double midpoint / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $24.203 @ 07:36 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $23.250/22.682 - Low June 5 / Low May 26 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver traded higher Friday. The metal has tested resistance at $24.492, the Apr 25 low and midpoint of a double top confirmed on May 11. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open $25.477, the May 11 high. Key support has been defined at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A break would reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support to watch lies at $23.250, the Jun 5 low.