MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Recent AUD Gains Seen as Corrective

Price Signal Summary – Recent AUD Gains Seen as Corrective

• S&P E-Minis are trading above last week’s lows but maintain a bearish tone. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 3810.00, May 20 low and a bear trigger. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures primary trend direction remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week resulted in a breach of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low.
• EURUSD remains above recent lows and a corrective cycle is still in play. A bearish remains present. Recent weakness, following a reversal at the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, highlights a bearish condition. The USDJPY uptrend remains intact. The recovery from 131.50, Thursday’s low is a positive development and suggests the recent correction is over. AUDUSD remains above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Recent gains are considered corrective and the outlook remains bearish. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low.
• Gold remains vulnerable short-term, despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures traded sharply lower Friday, resulting in a break of the 20-day EMA. The move lower has also resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA - currently at $109.50.
• Bund futures remain in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is bearish though. Recent cycle lows have continued to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures outlook remains bearish and last week’s cycle low again confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Price remains above recent lows but short-term gains are considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0671/0774 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0601 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.0552 @ 05:54 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0142 Bear channel base, drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD remains above recent lows and a corrective cycle is still in play. A bearish remains present. Recent weakness, following a reversal at the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, highlights a bearish condition. The channel top intersects at 1.0671 and marks a key short-term resistance. Attention is on 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0601, Jun 16 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Lows

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2560 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2518 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 1.2406 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2266 @ 05:57 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.2042 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

GBPUSD is unchanged but continues to trade above last week’s low of 1.1934 (Jun 14). Gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 1.1934 that also marks the short-term bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and resume the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15
• RES 1: 0.8634 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8577 @ 06:28 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 0.8512 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 0.8495 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

EURGBP is unchanged. The recent pullback is considered corrective and the outlook remains bullish. The breach last week of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The break reinforces bullish conditions and moving average studies continue to point north. The focus is on a retest of 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend. Firm support is seen at 0.8495, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 136.04 1.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 135.59 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 135.05 @ 06:41 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 132.29/131.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 2: 130.43 Low Jun Low Jun 6
• SUP 3: 130.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.29 50-day EMA

The USDJPY uptrend remains intact. The recovery from 131.50, Thursday’s low is a positive development and suggests the recent correction is over. The 135.00 handle remains exposed and a resumption of strength would set the scene for a climb towards 136.04, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 131.50, just below the 20-day EMA. A break is required to signal a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To recent Gains

• RES 4: 145.58 High Dec 31 2014
• RES 3: 145.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 144.25/58 High Jun 8 / 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 142.79 High Jun 10
• PRICE: 142.04 @ 06:55 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 139.87 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 137.85/82 Low Jun 16 / 50-day EMA and key support
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 134.99 Low May 25

EURJPY is holding on to its most recent gains, having recovered from last week’s low of 137.85 on Jun 16. The primary trend remains up. The climb above 140.00 this month confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that began Mar 7. Moving average studies still point north, reinforcing current conditions and this signals scope for a continuation higher towards 144.58 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm S/T support is seen at 137.82, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7125 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.6956 @ 07:10 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 0.6898/6851 Low ju 17 and Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD remains above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Recent gains are considered corrective and the outlook remains bearish. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high is seen as an initial firm resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3338 38.2% of the 2020 - 2021 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2935@ 08:03 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.2861 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 1.2816 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2770 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2681 Low Jun 10

USDCAD traded higher Friday, clearing 1.3000. Last week’s gains also resulted in a break above key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of 1.3077 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards 1.3113, the Nov 23 2020 high. Initial firm support is at 1.2816, the 20-day EMA. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 150.97 Low May 9
• RES 3: 148.00 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 147.19 High Jun 13
• RES 1: 145.58 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 143.32 @ 05:09 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 138.33 3.00 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures remain in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is bearish though. Recent cycle lows have continued to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too, highlighting current trend conditions. The focus is on the 140.00 psychological level. Firm resistance is at 148.00, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Downtrend Still Intact

• RES 4: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 3: 124.190 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 123.255 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 122.390 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 121.120 @ 05:06 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 118.420 Low Jul 27 2011

The primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and fresh cycle lows last week reinforce bearish conditions. The recent breach of 124.840, May 6 low also confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 119.590 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 123.255, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bear Flag

• RES 4: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 3: 108.715 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 108.738 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 108.495 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 108.075 @ 05:24 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 107.885/107.705 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.430 Low Jul 4 2011 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend, although the contract is in consolidation mode. This pause appears to be a bear flag formation - a pattern that reinforces bearish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too highlighting current trend conditions. This suggests scope for a continuation of the downtrend. The focus is on 107.662 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 108.738, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2)Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 114.26 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 114.28 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 113.25 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 111.27 @ Close Jun 20
• SUP 1: 111.08 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 3: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 108.98 Low Jul 7 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures outlook remains bearish and last week’s cycle low again confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Price remains above recent lows but short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week highlighted an acceleration of the downtrend. The focus is on 109.60 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 113.25, Jun 15 high.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 125.11 High Jun1
• RES 3: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 121.20 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 120.97 High Jun 17
• PRICE: 119.25 @ Close Jun 20
• SUP 1: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.83 4.382 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is bearish and the recent recovery is likely a correction. A bearish theme was reinforced early last week as price traded lower, confirming an extension of the downtrend and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 113.78, Jun 14 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 121.20, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 3840.00 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 3667.20 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3567.00 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 3469.00 @ 05:30 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures primary trend direction remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week resulted in a breach of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards 3300.00. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting current trend conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 3667.20, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 4396.75 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 4082.13/4204.75 50-day EMA / High May 31
• RES 1: 3843.00/3933.84 High Jun 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3729.00 @ 07:06 BST June 21
• SUP 1: 3639.00 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis are trading above last week’s lows but maintain a bearish tone. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 3810.00, May 20 low and a bear trigger. The clear break confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs and the focus is on 3600.00 next. Firm resistance is seen at 3933.84, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $126.95 - 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $121.25 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $114.96 @ 07:11 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $111.80/52 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: $108.28 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: $100.14 - Low May 11

Brent futures traded lower Friday and confirmed a clear break of the 20-day EMA. This highlights a bearish theme and suggests the current corrective cycle remains in play. Attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 111.80 and just above yesterday’s $111.52 low. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for an extension lower. For bulls, the broader trend is up, the bull trigger is at 125.19, Jun 14 high.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Tests The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $127.65 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 2: $124.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $118.97/123.68 - High Jun 17 / High Jun 14 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $111.52 @ 05:04 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $108.25 - Low Jun 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $96.93 - Low May 11

WTI futures traded sharply lower Friday, resulting in a break of the 20-day EMA. The move lower has also resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA - currently at $109.50. Friday’s low of $108.25 represents a key short-term support where a break would signal scope for a deeper near-term pullback. For bulls, the broader trend remains up and the bull trigger is at 123.68, the Jun 14 high.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1884.1 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 1: $1863.6 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1835.3 @ 07:26 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold remains vulnerable short-term, despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance is at $1886.6.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
• RES 1: $22.441/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6
• PRICE: $21.524 @ 07:57 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $20.896/20.464 - Low Jun 13 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains below its recent highs and the short-term outlook remains bearish. The metal recently tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break of this level is still required to suggest scope for an extension higher and would also highlight a breach of the 50-day EMA at $22.441. For bears, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, May 13 low.