MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P 500 Trend Needle Points North

Price Signal Summary - S&P 500 Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• In the equity space, a bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The rally this week confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. Note too that resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, has been cleared, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 4800.00 next. Initial firm support lies at 4632.25, the 20-day EMA. A bullish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh trend high yesterday. This confirms, once again, a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4608.00, the Jun 2007 high and a key resistance. Support to watch is at 4434.40, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD traded sharply higher yesterday. The recovery this week is a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Nov 29 - Dec 8. Sights are on key short-term resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Initial support is at 1.08739, the 20-day EMA. The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish. Wednesday’s rally and Thursday’s extension, reinforces a bullish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high, has been cleared, confirming the resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.2800. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2568, the 20-day EMA. A sharp sell-off in USDJPY Wednesday and a continuation lower Thursday, reinforces current bearish conditions. The pair has cleared support at 141.71, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 140.71, 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run. Clearance of this level would further reinforce bearish conditions. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.59, the Dec 11 high. Initial resistance is at 143.78, 50.% of the Dec 11 - 14 sell-off.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply higher Wednesday. This signals a short-term reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb toward key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. Initial firm support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. In the oil space, bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact. The contract has cleared $68.80, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.28, Jun 23 low. Gains are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is $73.30, the 20-day EMA.
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract traded higher Thursday. This week’s break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 137.58, a 3.00 projection of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 134.37, the Dec 8 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective. The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact. Thursday’s gap higher reinforces this theme and confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend. The focus is on 102.09, a 2.236 projection of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support lies at 98.97, the Dec 6 high and a recent breakout level. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1017 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1009 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 1.0989 @ 05:48 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 1.0839/1.0773 20-day EMA / Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

EURUSD traded sharply higher yesterday. The recovery this week is a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Nov 29 - Dec 8. The continuation higher suggests scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key support has been defined at 1.0724, the Dec 8 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.2759 @ 05:59 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 1.2612 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 1.2568/00 20-day EMA / Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.2473 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

GBPUSD remains bullish, with the recent pullback confirmed as corrective. Wednesday’s rally and Thursday’s extension, reinforces a bullish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high, has been cleared, confirming the resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.2800. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2568, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 0.8725 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 0.8690 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 0.8648 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8634 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 0.8610 @ 06:09 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 0.8549 Low Dec 11
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8411 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The EURGBP trend needle continues to point south and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8648, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would instead highlight a stronger short-term reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 3: 146.59 High Dec 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 143.78 50.% retracement of the Dec 11 - 14 sell-off
• RES 1: 142.90 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 141.90 @ 06:13 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 140.71 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
• SUP 2: 140.23 2.00 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28

A sharp sell-off in USDJPY Wednesday and a continuation lower Thursday, reinforces current bearish conditions. The pair has cleared support at 141.71, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 13. Sights are on 140.71, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would further reinforce bearish conditions. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.59, the Dec 11 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 159.35 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 158.82 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 158.67 High Dec 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 157.68 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 156.08 @ 06:47 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 153.23 Low Dec 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded sharply lower on Dec 7 and this strengthened a bearish theme. This week’s move lower reinforces the bearish threat and the recent recovery from 153.23, the Dec 7 low is considered corrective. Key short-term resistance to watch is at 158.67, the Dec 7 high. A break would signal a short-term reversal. On the downside, sights are on the bear trigger at 153.23, the Dec 7 low. A break would open 151.42, the Jul 28 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6729 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 0.6702 @ 07:00 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 0.6655 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 0.6579/26 20-day EMA / Low Dec 07
• SUP 3: 0.6517 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6453 Low Nov 17

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact. Wednesday’s gains and Thursday’s follow through reinforce this theme. The pair has traded through resistance at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 0.6747 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 3: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 2: 1.3619 High Dec 7 and 12 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.3520 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 1.3376 @ 09:55 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 1.3320 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 1.3283 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.3278 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3184 Low Aug 1

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has cleared the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and ends the consolidation phase posted since the beginning of December. Sights are on 1.3283, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3619, the Dec 7 / 12 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Bullish Price Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 138.49 3.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 138.00 3.00 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.58 3.000 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 137.28 HIgh Dec 14
• PRICE: 135.86 @ 05:16 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 135.07/134.37 Low Dec 13 / 8 and a key support
• SUP 2: 133.68 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.59 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 132.09 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout point

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract traded higher Thursday. This week’s break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 137.58, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 134.37, the Dec 8 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 119.438 3.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 119.320 3.50 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 119.202 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.160 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 118.390 @ 05:29 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 118.330 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 117.910 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.239 20-day EMA

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the latest recovery is a positive development. Key short-term resistance at 118.480 has been cleared, Dec 7 high, resuming the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens the 119.202 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 117.800, Dec 8 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• PRICE: 106.180 @ 05:39 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 105.955 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 105.901 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and the latest rally reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared 106.290, Dec 6 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 106.527, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 105.955, the Dec 13 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bullish Trend Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 102.80 2.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 102.48 2.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 102.09 2.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: 101.69/98 High Dec 14 / High May 11 (cont)
• PRICE: 100.46 @ Close Dec 14
• SUP 1: 100.20 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.74 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support

The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact. Thursday’s gap higher reinforces this theme and confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This also maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 102.09, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support lies at 98.97, the Dec 6 high and a recent breakout level. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 120.60 2.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.77 2.236 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.08 Intraday high
• PRICE: 119.07 @ 09:46 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 117.18 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 2: 115.70/115.25 Low Dec 8 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.13 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 112.70 Low Nov 24 and a key support

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play. Yesterday’s gap higher reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has cleared former resistance at 117.22, the Dec 7 high and a bull trigger. This maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 119.77, a Fibonacci projection, is the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 115.70, the Dec 8 low.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H4) Impulsive Bull Rally

• RES 4: 114-00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 113-12+ 1.764 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: 112-28+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: 112-28 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 112-26 @ 16:52 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 111-09+ High Dec 7 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 110-02 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 109-31+ Low Dec 11 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 109-12 50-day EMA

Treasuries rallied sharply Wednesday and the contract traded firmer once again into the Thursday close. Resistance at 111-09+, the Dec 7 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and confirms an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 112-28+ next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 109-31+, the Dec 11 low. First support is at 111-09+.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4665.50 2.50 proj of the Oct 27 - Nov 3 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg
• RES 2: 4608.00 High Jun 2007 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4595.00 High Dec 15
• PRICE: 4550.00 @ 05:49 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 4515.00/4434.40 Low Dec 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4396.00 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 4337.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4238.00 Low Nov 14

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh trend high yesterday. This confirms, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4608.00, the Jun 2007 high and a key resistance. Support to watch is at 4434.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 4899.09 1.382 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4862.08 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 2: 4808.25 High Jan 4 2022 and major resistance
• RES 1: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4777.50 @ 06:18 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 4696.75 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 4632.25 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4548.59 50-day EMA

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The rally this week confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. Note too that the contract has cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 4800.00 next. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4632.25, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $80.93 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.95 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $76.87 @ 06:56 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: $72.29/71.45 - Low Dec 13 / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $69.86 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $66.90 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.81 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s sell-off reinforces the bear theme. The break lower confirms, once again, a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.45 next, the Jun 23 low. The recovery from Wednesday’s low is considered corrective. $76.66, Tuesday’s high, has been breached. The next resistance is $77.95, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $76.76 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $73.30 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $71.83 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: $67.28 - Jun 23 low
• SUP 2: $65.00 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.32 - 2.236 proj of the Nov 14 - 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Round number support

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforced this condition. The contract has cleared $68.80, Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on $67.28, Jun 23 low. Gains are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is $73.30, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Reversal

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2054.30- 50.0% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $2036.2 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

Gold traded sharply higher Wednesday. This signals a short-term reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb toward key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary bull trend. Initial firm support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.519/25.761 - 61.8% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg / High Dec 4
• PRICE: $24.167 @ 08:4 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver traded sharply higher Wednesday highlighting a reversal. The metal continued to appreciate yesterday, reinforcing the developing bullish theme. Note too that Wednesday’s price pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, this highlights potential for a continuation higher. An extension would open $24.519, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $25.761, the Dec 4 high. Key support lies at $22.510, Wednesday’s low.