MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Bear Trend Extends

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bear Trend Extends

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish following last week’s extension lower and this week’s follow through. This strengthens bearish conditions and note that a key support at 3657.00, Jun 17 low and an important medium-term bear trigger, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. The focus is 3600.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft following the reversal on Sep 13, from 3678.00, the Jun 13 high and this week’s follow through. Key short-term support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low has been cleared, the break strengthens bearish conditions and has led to a breach of 3341.00, the Jul 5 low. The focus is on 3229.00 next, the Nov 9 2020 low (cont).
• In FX, the EURUSD remains vulnerable. The break lower last week and this week, confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend - reinforced too by last week’s breach of 0.9864, the Sep 6 low. The move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price is also trending down inside a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel base intersects at 0.9504. Bearish trend conditions in GBPUSD remain intact. An important short-term support has been defined at 1.0350, Monday’s low. The trend is down and a break of this support would confirm a resumption of bearish activity. Monday’s close also highlights an important candle pattern - a hammer and potential reversal signal. A break above Monday’s 1.0931 high is required to strengthen this signal and highlight a potential short-term base. USDJPY is holding on to the recovery from last Thursday’s low of 140.36 - a key short-term support - where a break is required to highlight a top and the potential for a deeper retracement. The uptrend remains intact and attention is on the bull trigger at 145.90, the Sep 22 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 146.03, 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded lower Friday, breaking out of its recent range and in the process confirmed the bear flag formation evident on the daily chart. The yellow metal remains soft. The break low this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens $1610.5, the 1.00 projection of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing. In the Oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present. The recent break of support at $84.25, the Jul 14 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and marks the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Attention is on $76.11, 1.618 projection of the Jul 29 - Aug 16 - 30 price swing.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the extension lower last week and this week, confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started early August. The focus is on 135.27, the Mar 2012 low (cont). Gilts have resumed bearish activity this week. The extension maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 90.57, the 2.618 projection of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Channel Support

• RES 4: 1.0042 Bear channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 0.9892 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.9852 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 0.9601/9710 Intraday high / High Sep 26
• PRICE: 0.9555 @ 10:03 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 0.9536 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.9504 Bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high
• SUP 3: 0.9501 1.382 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9442 1.50 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing

EURUSD is trading lower and has breached Monday’s low to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Fresh trend lows reinforce bearish conditions signalling scope for a continuation of the primary downtrend. The move lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price is approaching the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel intersects at 0.9504 and represents a key support.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 1.1329 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1274 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.0931 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 1.0651 @ 06:12 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.0350 All Time Low
• SUP 2: 1.0203 3.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0108 3.382 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0032 3.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing

Bearish trend conditions in GBPUSD remain intact. Monday’s volatile price activity defined an important short-term support at 1.0350. The trend is down and a break of this level would confirm a resumption of bearish activity. Monday’s close also highlights an important candle pattern - a hammer and a potential reversal signal. A break above Monday’s high is required to strengthen this signal and this would highlight a short-term base.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Trend Intact

• RES 4: 0.9501 High Mar 19 2020 and major resistance
• RES 3: 0.9388 High Mar 23 2020
• RES 2: 0.9292 High Sep 11 2020
• RES 1: 0.9060/9266 50.0% of Monday’s range / High Sep 26
• PRICE: 0.8963 @ 06:26 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 0.8853 Low Sep 26
• SUP 2: 0.8788 High Sep 19
• SUP 3: 0.8692 Low Sep 22 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8623 50-day EMA

EURGBP rallied sharply higher Monday before reversing lower and retracing the rally - the cross continues to trade closer to Monday’s low. The rally reinforced bullish conditions and has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and lows. This has exposed the top of a broad multi-year range at the 0.9300 handle and a key resistance area. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective - for now. 0.8692 is a key short-term support.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The 145.90 Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 2: 145.90 High Sep 22
• RES 1: 144.90 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 144.72 @ 06:43 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 142.42 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 140.36 Low Sep 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 139.87 Low Sep 2
• SUP 4: 139.47 50-day EMA

USDJPY is holding on to the recovery from last Thursday’s low of 140.36. This level has been defined as a key short-term support where a break is required to highlight a top and the potential for a deeper retracement. The uptrend remains intact and attention is on the bull trigger at 145.90, the Sep 22 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 146.03, a Fibonacci projection.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 146.23 2.236 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 145.64 High Sep 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 144.04 High Sep 20
• RES 1: 140.27/140.87 High Sep 23 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.30 @ 06:52 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 137.40 Low Sep 26
• SUP 2: 136.02 Low Aug 25
• SUP 3: 135.52 Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: 134.95 Low Aug 16 and a key support

A sharp reversal lower in EURJPY last week resulted in a break below the 50-day EMA and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness is considered corrective, despite a deep retracement and technical trend signals continue to highlight a bull cycle. The daily close below the 50-day EMA has strengthened a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 140.87, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 0.6747 High Sep 20
• RES 3: 0.6689 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 0.6550 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 0.6383 @ 10:04 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 0.6363 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6337 Low Apr 24 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6283 Low Apr 23 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6255 1.236 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD remains in a downtrend and the pair is trading lower today. The outlook remains bearish. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. This strengthens bearish conditions and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 0.6373 next, the May 4 2020 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6689, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish And Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.3970 3.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3896 3.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3822 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3808 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 1.3793 @ 08:00 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.3560/3468 Low Sep 26 / 23
• SUP 2: 1.3322 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3129 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 and a key support

USDCAD maintains a clear bullish tone and the pair is holding on to recent gains. The recent extension reinforces bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting current market sentiment. Sights are set on 1.3822 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is at 1.3322, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Activity Resumes

• RES 4: 142.62 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 142.58 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 142.02 High Sep 22
• RES 1: 139.29/140.99 High Sep 27 / 23
• PRICE: 136.61 @ 05:18 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 135.41 4.236 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 2: 135.27 Low Mar 2012 (cont)
• SUP 3: 134.76 4.382 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 134.24 4.50 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the extension lower this week once again confirms a continuation of the bear cycle that started early August. A major support at 140.67, Jun 16 low (cont), has been cleared. The break strengthens the broader bearish outlook and confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend. Attention is on 135.27 next, the Mar 2012 low (cont). The 20-day EMA, at 142.62 is a firm resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Heading South

• RES 4: 121.570 High Sep 19
• RES 3: 121.230 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 120.940 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 119.630/120.150 High Sep 28 / 23
• PRICE: 118.120 @ 10:09 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 118.090 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 117.918 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

The trend needle in Bobl futures still points south and the contract is again trading lower, reinforcing bearish conditions. A key support at 119.940, the Jun 16 low (cont) and the bear trigger, has recently been cleared. The break of this level confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and opens 117.918 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 121.230, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bears Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 107.840 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 107.518 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 107.380 High Sep 20
• RES 1: 107.035 High Sep 22
• PRICE: 106.645 @ 05:31 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 106.513 2.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 2: 106.379 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 106.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 105.800 Low Nov 2008 (cont)

The Schatz futures trend direction is unchanged and remains down with the contract trading closer to its recent lows. Recent fresh trend lows confirm an extension of the bear cycle. This also maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average studies in a bear mode position. The focus is on 106.513 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 107.518, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Impulsive Bearish Wave Extends

• RES 4: 103.60 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 102.45 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 98.68 Low Sep 23 and gap high on the daily chart
• RES 1: 97.43 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 91.63 @ 10:18 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 90.99 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 90.57 2.618 proj of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 88.94 2.764 proj of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont)

Gilt futures traded sharply lower once again yesterday as the impulsive wave of the current bear cycle extends. The contract has pierced an important chart point at 91.47. This marks the 76.4% retracement of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg. A clear break would reinforce current bearish conditions and highlight, once again, the potential for an extension lower. Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s high of 97.43.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 118.51 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 117.05 High Sep 22
• RES 2: 116.06 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 113.46/114.67 High Sep 26 / Low Sep 20
• PRICE: 108.45 @ 10:15 Sep 28
• SUP 1: 107.99 2.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing
• SUP 2: 107.27 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.00 round number support
• SUP 4: 106.68 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing

BTP futures remain bearish and the contract started the week on a softer note as it extends the current bearish cycle. Last week’s extension lower confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle - the contract traded through the early September lows. Moving averages are in a bear mode too, highlighting the current sentiment. The focus is on 107.27 nex, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 116.69, the 20-day EMA.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Trend Signals Point South

• RES 4: 116-18+ 50 day EMA values
• RES 3: 115-06+ High Sep 14
• RES 2: 114-26+ 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 112-30+/114-00 High Sep 23 / 22
• PRICE: 111-07+ @ 15:57 BST Sep 27
• SUP 1: 110-27 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 110-13+ 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 110-00 Psychological Support
• SUP 4: 109-23+ Low Nov 30 20074 (cont)

Treasuries remain soft following last week’s extension of its downtrend and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and bearish moving average studies clearly highlight the market's current bearish sentiment. The focus is on 110-13+, a lower moving average band value. Initial resistance is Friday’s high of 112-30+.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Southbound

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 3481.30/3678.00 20-day EMA / High Sep 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 3261.00 @ 10:17 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 3229.00 Low Nov 9 2020 (cont)
• SUP 2: 3163.00 Low Nov 6 2020
• SUP 3: 3143.20 1.382 proj of the Aug 17 - Sep 5 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 3100.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft and the contract continues to trend lower, marking an extension of the reversal on Sep 13 from 3678.00. Key short-term support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low, has been cleared, The break strengthens bearish conditions and has led to a breach of 3341.00, the Jul 5 low, MA studies are in a bear mode position too, highlighting the current trend direction. The focus is on 3229.00 next, the Nov 9 2020 low (cont).

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Key Support Breached

• RES 4: 4313.50 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 2: 3983.16/4175.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 13
• RES 1: 3783.25/3936.25 High Sep 23 / 20
• PRICE: 3618.50 @ 10:26 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 3600.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 3558.97 1.382 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 3506.38 1.50 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish following last week’s extension lower and the bearish follow through this week. The move strengthens bearish conditions and attention is on key support at 3657.00, Jun 17 low and an important medium-term bear trigger. This support has been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and opens 3600.00 next. Initial firm resistance is at 3936.25, Sep 20 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $96.99/103.86 - High Sep 5 / High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $94.24 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $90.88 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $85.03 @ 06:54 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $83.65 - Low Sep 26
• SUP 2: $82.59 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: $80.71 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $79.12 - Low Jan 24

Brent futures are consolidating. The contract traded lower Monday, confirming a resumption of the broader downtrend. Price has breached support at $87.24, Sep 18 low and a bear trigger. The move lower strengthens bearish conditions and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This paves the way for $82.59 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm trend resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at $94.24.

WTI TECHS: (X2) Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: $97.91 - High Jul 29 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: $92.26/96.82 - High Aug 30 / 31 and key resistance
• RES 2: $88.07 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $80.89/84.17 - Low Sep 8 /20-day EMA
• PRICE: $77.31 @ 07:16 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $76.11 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 2: $75.70 - Low Jan 24
• SUP 3: $71.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $68.20 - 2.236 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 16 - 30 price swing

WTI futures are consolidating. Bearish conditions were reinforced last week - the contract cleared support at $80.89, the Sep 8 low. This marks a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $76.11 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at $88.07 the 50-day EMA. Initial firm resistance is seen at $84.17, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $1765.5 - High Aug 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1721.2/35.1 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 12
• RES 2: $1688.0/1707.1 - High Sep 21 / High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1654.0 - Low Sep 21 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: $1618.2 @ 10:39 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $1614.9 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020
• SUP 4: $1563.9 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing

Gold last week broke out of its recent range and in the process confirmed the bear flag formation evident on the daily chart. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position, clearly highlighting current market sentiment. The focus is on $1610.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at $1688.0.

SILVER TECHS: Fresh Weekly Low

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $20.014 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $18.082 @ 08:04 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

Silver maintains a softer tone and is trading lower today. The recent break of $18.845, Sep 12 low, confirms the end of the recent corrective recovery between Sep 1 - 12. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards the key support and bear trigger at $17.562, Sep 1 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. On the upside, key resistance is at $20.014, Sep 12 high.