MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Primary Uptrend Intact
Price Signal Summary – Stocks Surge, Primary Uptrend Intact
- Bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remain intact. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, Nov 4 low. Price is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this week’s gains have resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25. Eurostoxx 50 futures are volatile. A bearish condition remains intact and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle low and pierced 4815.50, the 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- A sharp sell-off Wednesday in EURUSD resulted in a clear reversal of the recent Oct 23 - Nov 5 correction. The breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The EURJPY trend set-up is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Initial support to watch lies at 164.42, the 20-day EMA. USDCAD reversed course yesterday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The yellow metal has cleared the 20-day EMA and this highlights potential for an extension of the corrective cycle. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including this week’s gains, appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures are trading in a volatile manner and have recovered from their intraday low yesterday. The trend direction remains down and Wednesday’s initial break to a fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. A bearish condition in Gilts remains intact. The contract has recently traded through the 94.00 handle and once again traded lower, yesterday. 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing has been breached.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.0832 Low Nov 1
- PRICE: 1.0743 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 1.0683 Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
- SUP 4: 1.0611 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull cycle
A sharp sell-off Wednesday in EURUSD resulted in a clear reversal of the recent Oct 23 - Nov 5 correction. The breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.0666, the Jun 26 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0937, the Nov 5 and 6 high. A clear break of this hurdle is required to highlight a potential reversal.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Points South
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3048 High Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.2928 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 1.2834 Low Nov 06
- SUP 2: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 1.2762 Low Aug 13
- SUP 4: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and Wednesday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and highlights the end of the recent corrective bounce. Sights are on key short-term support and the bear trigger at 1.2844, the Oct 31 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2799, the Aug 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3048, the Nov 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Key Support
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8499 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 / Oct 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8383/0.8448 50-day EMA / High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8311 @ 06:43 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 0.8295 Low Oct 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded lower Wednesday and the cross remains soft as it extends the pullback from last week’s high. The move down exposes key short-term support at 0.8295, the Oct 18 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a reversal trigger is at 0.8448, the Oct 31 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 154.71 Intraday high
- PRICE: 154.03 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 151.29 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 149.42 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 147.35 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4
The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and Wednesday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The pair has traded above 153.88, the Oct 28 high, to highlight a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation of the bull cycle would open 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 151.29, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would instead signal the start of a short-term corrective cycle. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 149.42.
EURJPY TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.69 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 165.48 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 164.42/163.27 20-and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
The EURJPY trend set-up is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Initial support to watch lies at 164.42, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open 168.01, the Jul 26 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Recovery Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6684 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6645 High Nov 6
- PRICE: 0.6622 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 0.6513 Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has traded through support at 0.6537, the Oct 30 low and bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and sights are set on 0.6490, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6645, Wednesday’s intraday high. The latest bounce is for now considered corrective.
USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4167 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3879 @ 08:14 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 1.3833/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.37391 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD reversed course yesterday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3833, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 132.68 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.22 High Nov 6
- PRICE: 131.53 @ 05:44 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 130.58 Low NOv 6
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures are trading in a volatile manner and have recovered from their intraday low yesterday. The trend direction remains down and Wednesday’s initial break to a fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for an extension towards 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance is at 132.22, the Nov 6 high. A break of this level would be seen as an early bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.874 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 118.360 @ 05:57 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 117.680 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures last week highlights a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off paves the way for an extension lower near-term and sights are on 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.580, the Sep 3 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.757 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.715 @ 06:10 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.027 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact. The trend is oversold and a move higher is allowing this condition to unwind. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and the short-term bear trigger. Initial support to watch is 106.485, the Nov 5 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 106.757, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear’s Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 97.23 High Oct 22
- RES 3: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 2: 95.50 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 94.73 High Nov 1
- PRICE: 92.82 @ Close Nov 6
- SUP 1: 72.53 Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bearish condition in Gilts remains intact. The contract has recently traded through the 94.00 handle and once again traded lower, yesterday. 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing has been breached. This signals scope for an extension towards 92.23, a Fibonacci projection. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key S/T resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible base. Initial resistance is 94.73, Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 118.93 @ Close Nov 6
- SUP 1: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 118.16 Low Sep 2 Low Jul 26
- SUP 3: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
BTP futures maintains a softer tone, The contract traded sharply lower last week, clearing 119.97, the Oct 11 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and highlights a possible reversal. Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces the bearish threat. Sights are on 118.64, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 121.53, the Oct 25 high, where a break is required to cancel the bearish threat. First resistance is 119.99, Nov 6 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 5015.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 4961.00 High Nov 6
- PRICE: 4824.00 @ 06:23 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 4796.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
- SUP 3: 4746.94 .61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
Eurostoxx 50 futures are volatile. A bearish condition remains intact and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle low and pierced 4815.50, the 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4757.00, the Sep 6 / 10 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 5015.00, the Oct 29 high, where a break would highlight a reversal.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Fresh Trend High
- RES 4: 6028.44 1.236 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 1: 5971.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5962.50 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: 5829.92/5724.25 20-day EMA / Low Nov 4
- SUP 2: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 5637.60 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 5600.25 Low Sep 12
Bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remain intact. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, Nov 4 low. Price is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this week’s gains have resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens the 6000.0 psychological handle. A breach of 5724.25, the Nov 4 low is required to reinstate a bearish threat.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $75.18 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Despite the latest recovery, a bearish theme remains intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose support at $69.68, Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.67 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $71.61 @ 07:17 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including this week’s gains, appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would instead refocus attention on the key S/T resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is $72.67, the Nov 5 high.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $2710.3/2750.0 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 5
- PRICE: $2661.8 @ 07:20 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: $2643.4 - 50-day EMA and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $2628.2 - Low Oct 11
- SUP 3: $2604.9 - Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: $2547.0 - Low Sep18
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The yellow metal has cleared the 20-day EMA and this highlights potential for an extension of the corrective cycle. Attention is on a key support at $2643.4, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would expose $2604.9, the Oct 8 low. For bulls a reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 31.209 @ 08:19 GMT Nov 7
- SUP 1: $30.832 - Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: $30.269 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. The metal has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the 50-day average signals scope for a deeper retracement towards $30.269, a trendline support. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $34.903, the Oct 23 high and bull trigger.