MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Extending Gains

Tech Focus: Price Signal Summary - USD Extends Gains

In the equity space, the E-mini S&P is consolidating but remains vulnerable following last week's selling pressure from 3978.50, Mar 18 high. The support to watch is 3875.00, Mar 19 low. A break would confirm a breach of the 20-day EMA and reinforce short-term bearish conditions.
In the FX space, EURUSD is weaker again this morning and has breached 1.1836, Mar 19 low. This opens 1.1800 next, the Nov 23 low. GBPUSD is also soft. The pair has this week cleared 1.3779, Mar 5 low and a bear trigger. Note this also confirms a breach of the 50-day EMA and a bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low. The focus is on 1.3641, 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle. USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Attention is still on 109.56, 76.4% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg and an important pivot resistance. Watch support at 108.34 Mar 10 low.
On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains in place following the recovery that started Mar 8. The focus is on $1779.3, the 50-day EMA. Support is at $1719.3, Mar 18 low. Oil contracts remain in bear mode. Weakness in Brent (K1) yesterday opens $58.56, 38.2% of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally. In WTI (K1), scope is for a move to $55.65, also the 38.2% of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally.
In the FI space:
- Bunds (M1) have cleared resistance at 172.20, Mar 11 high. This break opens 172.51 next, Feb 16 high.
- Gilts (M1) have cleared resistance at 128.33, Mar 16 high, suggesting scope for an extension higher. The next key resistance is at 129.27, Mar 2 high.
- Treasuries (M1) remain in a downtrend and gains are considered corrective. Resistance is at 132-09, Mar 17 high and yesterday's intraday high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes The 2021 Downtrend

• RES 4: 1.2015 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1989/90 High Mar 18 / 11 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1947 High Mar 22
• RES 1: 1.1853 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 1.1821 @ 05:59 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.1800 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 1.1752 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1746 Low Nov 11, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1711 Low Nov 5

EURUSD traded lower Wednesday, closing near session lows. A bearish theme remains intact and strengthened yesterday's break of key short-term support at 1.1836, Mar 9 low. Note, the 200-day MA has also this week been breached. This confirms a resumption of this year's downtrend and sets the scene for an extension lower, opening 1.1800 next, Nov 23 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1947, the Mar 22 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 1.3959 High Mar 19
• RES 3: 1.3891 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3835 Former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low
• RES 1: 1.3779 Low Mar 5 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.3688 @ 06:02 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.3663 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3567 Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 1.3520 Low Jan 18

GBPUSD is bearish. Tuesday's move lower confirmed a breach of the bull channel base from the Nov 2, 2020 low. Furthermore, price has this week cleared the 50-day EMA and a former key support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low, triggering an important short-term reversal. The focus is on 1.3663 next, Feb 5 low. On the upside, the former channel base at 1.3835 today, provides an initial firm resistance. Heavy!

EURGBP TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the S/T reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.8668 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 0.8645 High Mar 23 and 24
• PRICE: 0.8633 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 0.8577 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 0.8533 Low Mar 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: 0.8489 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP is firmer and trading above 0.8533, Mar 18 low. The recovery from this low is still considered a correction. Trend signals highlight a downtrend and attention is on the bear trigger at 0.8533. A break would resume the trend and expose 0.8489, a volatility based support. Firm resistance is at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A breach of this hurdle is needed to signal a short-term reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low
• RES 3: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
• RES 2: 109.70 High Jun 8, 2020
• RES 1: 109.36/56 High Mar 15 / 76.4% of Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• PRICE: 108.98 @ 06:21 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low Mar 10 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 108.08 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.68 50-day EMA

USDJPY is slightly firmer but remains within its recent range. Trend conditions remain bullish. Attention is on 109.56, a key retracement where a break would reinforce bullish sentiment. Momentum studies are overbought however this condition is still not having an impact on the trend and instead, the set-up reinforces the current bullish theme. Support to watch is at 108.34, Mar 10 low. A break would signal a possible top and a correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Supports

• RES 4: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 130.67 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 129.94 High Mar 22
• RES 1: 129.14 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.74 @ 06:29 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 128.16 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.06 Trendline support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 127.31 Low Feb 17

EURJPY traded sharply lower again yesterday as the correction from 130.67, Mar 18 high extends. The cross has cleared the 20-day EMA and the break paves the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA at 128.16 and a trendline support at 128.06. The trendline is drawn off the Oct 30 low. A break of this line would suggest scope for a deeper sell-off. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 129.94, Mar 22 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 0.7796 Trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high
• RES 3: 0.7757 High Mar 22
• RES 2: 0.7699 Low Mar 17
• RES 1: 0.7636 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 0.7593 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 0.7564 Low Feb 2 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.7517 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
• SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD remains bearish. The pair traded lower Tuesday and Wednesday to maintain a softer tone and has cleared support at 0.7621, Mar 9 low and a bear trigger. The break lower confirms a resumption of the bearish cycle that started at 0.8007, Feb 25 high and paves the way for weakness towards 0.7564 next, the Feb 2 low and below. On the upside, key resistance has been established at 0.7849, Mar 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Retracement Extends

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2647 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2609 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 1.2571 @ 06:44 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 1.2516 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

The USDCAD recovery remains intact and the pair edged higher again yesterday. Recent gains are considered corrective, however the continued push higher does suggest scope for an extension of gains. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 1.2647. On the downside, firm support is seen at 1.2462, Mar 19 low. A break would expose major support at 1.2365.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 173.48 1.00 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• RES 3: 172.83 Low May 5
• RES 2: 172.51 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 172.41 High MAr 24
• PRICE: 172.25 @ 05:02 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 171.42 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 170.52 Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are trading closer to recent highs. Key resistance at 172.20, Mar 11 high has been probed this week. A clear break would represent an important short-term bullish development and signal the end of the recent period of consolidation. Also, a break higher would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 25. This would open 172.51, Feb 16 high ahead of the 173.00 handle. Key support has been defined at 170.52, Mar 18 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Bullish Structure

• RES 4: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 2: 135.480 High Jan 27 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 135.440 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 135.410 @ 05:00 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 135.190 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 135.010 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 134.870 Low Mar 19 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9

Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone. Resistance at 135.220, Mar 16 has been cleared this week. The clear break of this hurdle ends the recent period of consolidation and confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. This paves the way for strength towards 135.480 next, Jan 27 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Needle Pointing North

• RES 4: 112.201 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.198 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 2: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 1: 112.160 High Mar 24 and intraday high
• PRICE: 112.155 @ 05:20 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 112.120 Low Mar 22 and 23
• SUP 2: 112.095 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 112.060 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract has this week breached resistance at 112.125, Mar 1 / 2 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish theme and confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. Attention is on 112.174, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 112.070, Mar 18 low. A break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Gains Extend

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 128.82 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 128.45 @ Close Mar 24
• SUP 1: 127.55 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday, extending the bounce from 126.79, Mar 18 low. The contract did however find resistance at the session high of 128.82. Price has traded above resistance at 128.33, Mar 16 high. Continued gains would suggest near-term scope for a climb towards firm resistance at 129.27, Mar 2 high. From a trend perspective, the broader downtrend remains intact. The trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure is 126.79.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Attention Is On Resistance

• RES 4: 151.33 1.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 2: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 150.25/39 High Mar 24 / High Mar 11
• PRICE: 150.09 @ Close Mar 24
• SUP 1: 148.97 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 148.36 Low Mar 18
• SUP 3: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 4: 147.56 Low Mar 5

BTP futures traded higher again yesterday as the recovery from 148.36, Mar 18 low extends. Resistance is at 150.39, Mar 11 high with a pivotal level at 150.69, 76.4% of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off. The recent focus has been on the likelihood of a bearish theme and while resistance remains intact, the S/T risk still appears skewed to the downside. A breach of 148.36 would reinforce this theme. On the upside, clearance of 150.39 would instead be bullish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Holding Above The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 3926.56 1.764 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 3: 3900.30 High May 2008
• RES 2: 3889.08 1.618 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 3874.91 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3832.55 @ Close Mar 24
• SUP 1: 3803.84 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 3791.21 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3702.81 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 remains below recent highs. Short-term retracements however are considered corrective with bullish conditions intact. The breach on Mar 8 of 3742.53, Feb 15 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 3889.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. The next firm support area is seen at the 20-day EMA. It intersects at 3791.21.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Bearish Despite A Bounce

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Mar 5 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $70.03 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $68.15 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.12 - High Mar 22 and a firm near-term resistance
• PRICE: $63.27 @ 06:45 Mar 25
• SUP 1: $60.27 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $58.56 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $57.09 - High Jan 13
• SUP 4: $56.07 - Low Feb 2

Brent crude futures rebounded yesterday. However gains are considered corrective with a bearish theme intact. The break lower this week has confirmed a break of trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and the 50-day EMA. This reinforces a bearish theme and opens $58.56 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, resistance is at $65.12, Mar 22 high. A break is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $62.04 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $59.99 @ 06:55 Mar 25
• SUP 1: $57.25 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $53.68 - High Jan 13
• SUP 4: $51.24 - Low Jan 22

WTI futures outlook is bearish despite yesterday's gains. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and the 50-day EMA. The move lower suggests the current bearish cycle is likely to extend with attention on $55.65 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $62.04, Mar 22 high. A break of this level would ease the current bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1777.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1755.5 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $1733.2 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $1719.3 - Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: $1699.3 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold is consolidating with support at $1719.3, Mar 18 low intact. A break lower would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $1699.3, Mar 12 low and the trigger for a test of key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low. From a short-term trend perspective, the recovery from $1676.9, Mar 8 low remains intact. Key near-term resistance and the bull trigger is at $1755.5, Mar 18 high. A break would open $1779.3, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• RES 3: $27.081 - High Mar 1
• RES 2: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 1: $26.024 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $24.981 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $24.836 - Low Mar 5
• SUP 2: $24.700 - Low Jan 27
• SUP 3: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7

Silver remains soft. A bearish risk remains intact and the recent sell-off between Feb 23 - Mar 5 highlights this theme. A former key support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has also recently been cleared and this sets the scene for a deeper pullback exposing $24.700, Jan 27 low ahead of the Jan 18 low at $24.057. The bear trigger remains $24.836, Mar 5 low. On the upside, near-term resistance is seen at $26.636, Mar 18 high.