MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Extending Gains Pre-NFP

Price Signal Summary - USD Extending Gains

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintains a bullish theme and has traded above the 4300.00 handle. This opens 4322.15, 0.764 projection of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 futures focus is on a key technical pattern from Jun 18 - a bearish engulfing candle - that continues to warn of a short-term top in the trend. A break of 4015.00, Jun 21 low would reinforce the importance of the engulfing line and signal scope for a deeper pullback potentially below 4000.00 towards 3914.00, May 20 low.
• In FX, the USD remains firm and has resumed its uptrend. The EURUSD support is under pressure. The focus is on 1.1795 next, the Low Apr 6. A break would open 1.1738. GBPUSD is trading below 1.3787, Jun 21 low. A clear break would signal scope for weakness towards 1.3717, Apr 16 low. USDJPY is trading higher and has cleared 111.30, the Mar 26, 2020 high. The focus turns to 111.71/73, Mar 24, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope.
• On the commodity front, the yellow metal broke lower Tuesday and cleared support at $1761.1, Jun 18 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 1 and note the move has also confirmed a bear flag that developed during the most recent consolidation phase. The focus is on $1733.5, 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally. Resistance is at $1795.0, Jun 23 high. The Oil market trend condition remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. Brent (U1) focus is $76.42, 1.236 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Support lies at $72.94, the 20-day EMA. WTI (Q1) has topped $75.01, 1.382 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Watch support at $71.35, the 20-day EMA.
• Within FI, Bund futures key short-term directional triggers are; support at 171.67, Jun 22 low and resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. Key support in Gilt futures is unchanged at 126.70, Jun 3 low and marks an important pivot level. The key resistance is at 128.39, Jun 11 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading At Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.2147 High Jun 15
• RES 3: 1.2034 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 1: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• PRICE: 1.1846 @ 05:53 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 1.1837 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally
• SUP 2: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support

EURUSD is trading at recent lows. The pair has probed support at 1.1848, Jun 18, 21 lows and the bear trigger and the outlook remains bearish. A clear break of 1.1848 would confirm a resumption of the downleg that started on May 25. Attention is also on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is 1.1975, the Jun 25 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.3981/4001 50-day EMA / High Jun 23
• RES 1: 1.3886 High Jun 29
• PRICE: 1.3771 @ 06:01 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 1.3752 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD traded lower again yesterday and has breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low and touched new multi-month lows. The move lower opens 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on key short-term support and a bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Clearance of 1.3669 would mark an important bearish breakout. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high. First resistance is at 1.3886, Jun 29 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Looking For A Break Lower

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8616/29 High Jul 1 / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8601 @ 06:21 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 0.8564 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8493 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger

EURGBP managed to bounce from its lows Thursday. Support at 0.8561, May 12 low was breached Jun 17. This continues to signal the end of the recent consolidation suggesting scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above the Jun 23 low. A break would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at 0.8646, Jun 1 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Still Heading North

• RES 4: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
• RES 3: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 111.71/86 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 111.66 Intraday high
• PRICE: 111.57 @ 06:26 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 110.42/109.72 Low Jun 30 / Low June 21
• SUP 2: 109.65/109.19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY is holding onto and adding to this week's gains. The pair has cleared resistance at 111.12, Jun 24 high and the recent bull trigger. The recovery maintains the current bull trend and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 111.86, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Key short-term trend support is at 110.42 Jun 30 low. A break is required to signal a top.

EURJPY TECHS: Broader Trend Conditions Still Bearish

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 132.70 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 132.19 @ 06:43 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 131.28/130.04 Low Jun 29, 30 / Low Jun 21 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY moved higher yesterday. The short-term trend outlook remains bearish following the sharp move lower between Jun 15 - 21. The cross traded through the 50-day EMA and breached a bull channel support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. This highlights a reversal and price has also recently probed the 100-dma. 130.04, Jun 21 low is the bear trigger. A break would open 129.59, Apr 23 low. Resistance is seen at the 132.70/88 zone.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.7666 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 0.7617 High Jun 25 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7527 High Jun 30
• PRICE: 0.7469 @ 06:53 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 0.7460 Low Jul 1 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7400 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.7385 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 4: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing

AUDUSD yesterday breached support at 0.7476, Jun 21 low. The outlook is bearish as the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs extends. Price is also back below the 200-dma. The move in June through 0.7532, Apr 1 low confirmed a resumption of the reversal that occurred Feb 25 and this also highlights a bearish theme. The focus is on 0.7385, a bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. Firm resistance is at 0.7617, the Jun 25 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.2487/2501 High Jun 21 / 76.4% of Apr 21 - Jun 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2428 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 1.2434 @ 06:56 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 1.2291/53 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 1.2057 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.2007 Low May 18 and key support

The USDCAD outlook is unchanged and short-term conditions remain bullish. A positive theme follows the strong recovery between Jun 1 - 21 that confirmed a short-term reversal. The pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA reinforcing current short-term bullish conditions. Attention is on 1.2501, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Initial firm support is seen at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Holding Onto This Week's Gains

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.16 High Jun 11 and key resistance
• RES 1: 172.74/73.03 High Jun 30 / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 172.65 @ 05:10 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 171.37 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 170.99 Low May 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 170.56 Low May 24

Bund futures are holding onto this week's gains but remain below key resistance levels. A bearish theme remains intact. The contract recently probed 171.80, Jun 17 low. A clear break lower would signal scope for a deeper pullback and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open 171.37, Jun 3 low ahead of 170.99, Mar 31 low. Key resistance is 173.16, Jun 11 high where a break is needed to resume the uptrend from May 19.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.210/250 High Jul 1 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: 134.180 @ 05:12 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 133.700 76.4% retracement of the May 20 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 3: 133.530 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures edged higher yesterday. Although the move lower since Jun 11 is considered corrective, a near-term bearish risk remains present. A key support lies at 133.860, May 28, 31 and Jun 22 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case and open 133.700, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 134.510, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high. Initial firm resistance is at 134.250.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.185 High Jun 15 and 16
• RES 2: 112.175 High Jun 17 and 18
• RES 1: 112.165 High Jun 21, Jul 1 and intraday high
• PRICE: 112.160 @ 05:27 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28
• SUP 2: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 3: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.064 161.8% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures edged higher again yesterday. The recent move lower resulted in a break of 112.120, May 17, Jun 21 lows. Note too, price also recently tested 112.110, Apr 20 low and a congestion support. The outlook remains bearish and scope is seen for a move towards 112.086 and 112.075, Fibonacci retracement extensions. Initial firm resistance is 112.165, Jun 21 high. A break would ease the bearish threat and open 112.185.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Attention Is On Key Resistance

• RES 4: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.39 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 128.21 High Jun 30
• PRICE: 128.02 @ Close Jul 1
• SUP 1: 127.25/126.91 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 23 / Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

Gilt futures has traded higher this week and is closing in on key resistance. The contract on Jun 9, breached 127.74, May 26 high. This confirmed a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and the positive price condition remains intact. Price has held above a key short-term pivot support at 126.70, Jun 3 low. Further gains would open 128.39, Jun 11 high and the bull trigger. A break of 126.70 would instead be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Strong Rally

• RES 4: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.47 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 151.82 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 151.71 @ Close Jul 1
• SUP 1: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 149.74 50.0% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 4: 149.53 Low May 28

A strong rally dominated Wednesday's session in BTPs and the contract traded higher again yesterday. A key short-term support lies at 149.97, Jun 25 low. The break higher this week suggests the recent corrective pullback between Jun 14 - 25 is over. Further gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. Initial support lies at Wednesday's 150.56 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 2: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• PRICE: 4078.0 @ 05:34 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 4033.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 4017.90/4015.00 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Wednesday and this has exposed the key short-term support at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. A key technical pattern on Jun 18 - bearish engulfing candle - continues to warn of a short-term top in the trend. A break of 4015.00 would reinforce the importance of the engulfing line and signal scope for a deeper pullback opening, 4000.00 and 3914.00, the May 20 low. Initial resistance is at 4121.00, Jun 25 high.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Holding Above 4300.00

• RES 4: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4322.15 0.764 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 4315.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4310.25 @ 07:02 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 4240.59 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4180.08/26.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis continue to deliver fresh trend highs with prices above 4300.00. This maintains the bullish theme and positive price sequence. The contract recently recovered from support around the 50-day EMA and this reinforces bullish conditions. Stronger gains above 4300.00 would open 4322.15, a Fibonacci extension. Key short-term trend support is 4126.75, low Jun 21. Initial support lies at 4233.20, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Fresh Trend Highs

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $76.74 - High Jul 1
• PRICE: $75.75 @ 06:58 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: $73.21 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $71.24 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.40 - Low May 25

Brent crude futures traded higher yesterday and cleared the recent trend high of $75.77, Jun 28 high. The break higher has confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This paves the way for strength towards $77.00 and $77.86, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is seen at $73.21, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $76.22 - High Jul 2
• PRICE: $75.12 @ 07:06 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: $73.39 Low Jul 1
• SUP 2: $71.72/69.54 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 17 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: $67.74 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $66.80 - High May 18

WTI crude resumed its uptrend yesterday extending recent gains and more importantly traded to a fresh trend high, maintaining the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price has tested $76.18, 1.50 projection of the Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. A clear break would open $77.35, the 1.618 projection. On the downside, initial firm support is at $71.72, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1795.0/1806.1 - High Jun 23 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1778.4 @ 07:18 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: $1750.8 - Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold traded lower Tuesday and cleared $1761.1, Jun 18 low. The break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 1 and the move lower also confirmed the bear flag price pattern that developed during the most recent period of consolidation. This opens $1733.5, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of $1723.8, Apr 13 low. On the upside, initial resistance has been defined at $1795.00, Jun 23 high. Gains are considered corrective.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.495/27.245 - High Jun 18 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.049 @ 07:22 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: $25.554/529 - Low Jun 21 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver traded lower Tuesday but has since recovered. The metal did also probe support but remains within its recent range and what appears to be a bear flag formation. The pattern, if correct, reinforces current bearish conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. Attention is on $24.955 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A firm resistance is seen at $27.245, Jun 17 high. Initial resistance is at 26.495, Jun 18 high.