MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Eyeing New Cycle High

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Hits Fresh 2021 Highs Friday

In the equity space, S&P E-minis found support last week at 3843.25, the mid-week low. The recovery means the 50-day EMA at 3842.85 remains intact. A breach of the average is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Initial resistance to watch is 3968.00, Mar 26 high.
- In the FX space, EURUSD maintains a weaker tone and has cleared the 1.1800 handle. This reinforces current bearish conditions with the focus on 1.1752 next, 1.236 projection of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish but buying on dips has become prevalent. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. USDJPY is firmer and has traded to a fresh 2021 high late last week. The pair has topped 109.56, 76.4% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg and an important pivot resistance.
- On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating with support at $1719.3, Mar 18 low. A break above $1755.50 is needed to trigger a fresh round of gains. This would open the 50-day EMA at $1775.6. Recent weakness in Brent (K1) opens $58.56, 38.2% of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally. Resistance is at $65.12, Mar 22 high. In WTI (K1), scope is for a move to $55.65, also 38.2% of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally. Resistance is at $62.04, Mar 22 high.

• Bunds (M1) are lower this morning however recent gains suggest scope for an extension higher. The next resistance is at 172.78, 0.764 projection of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing.
• Gilts (M1) have this week cleared resistance at 128.33, Mar 16 high, suggesting scope for an extension higher. The next key resistance is at 129.27, Mar 2 high.
• Treasuries (M1) remain in a downtrend and gains are considered corrective. Resistance is at 132-09+, Mar 25 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 1.1997 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1989/90 High Mar 18 / 11 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1947 High Mar 22
• RES 1: 1.1853 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 1.1780 @ 05:51 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 1.1752 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1746 Low Nov 11, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1711 Low Nov 5
• SUP 4: 1.1694 1.382 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing

EURUSD maintains a weaker tone following last week's bearish pressure. The pair has cleared the 1.1800 handle and attention is on 1.1752 next, a Fibonacci projection. Last week's move lower also resulted in a break of the 200-day MA and confirmed a resumption of this year's downtrend. On the upside, firm resistance is at 1.1947, the Mar 22 high. Initial resistance though is at 1.1853.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 1.4005 High Mar 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3959 High Mar 19
• RES 2: 1.3877 High Mar 22
• RES 1: 1.3854 Former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low
• PRICE: 1.3769 @ 06:15 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 1.3663 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3567 Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 1.3520 Low Jan 18

GBPUSD maintains a bearish tone despite the recovery late last week. Cable has cleared its bull channel base from the Nov 2, 2020 low. Furthermore, price also traded through the 50-day EMA and a former key support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low, triggering an important short-term reversal. The focus is on 1.3663 next, Feb 5 low. On the upside, the former channel base at 1.3844, provides an initial firm resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Attention Is On The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the S/T reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.8668 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 0.8646 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 0.8554 @ 06:22 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 0.8533 Low Mar 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 0.8495 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

Recent EURGBP gains found resistance at 0.8646, Mar 24 high, The outlook remains bearish. Trend signals continue to highlight a downtrend and attention is on the bear trigger at 0.8533, Mar 18 low. A break would resume the trend and expose 0.8495, a volatility based support. Firm trend resistance is at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A breach of this hurdle is needed to signal a short-term reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Uptrend Resumes

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26
• RES 3: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low
• RES 2: 110.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
• PRICE: 109.44 @ 06:29 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 109.13 Low Mar 26
• SUP 2: 108.41 Low Mar 23 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.32 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 107.82 Low Mar 5

USDJPY rallied to a fresh 2021 high Friday. The move above 109.36, Mar 15 high confirms a resumption of the uptrend and note that 109.56 has been breached, a key retracement - 76.4% of Mar 2020 - Jan downleg. Attention is on 110.00 and the 110.63 Fibonacci projection. Overbought conditions are still not impacting this trend and instead continues to reinforce current sentiment. 108.41 is the key short-term support.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Supports Remain Exposed

• RES 4: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 130.67 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 129.94 High Mar 22
• RES 1: 129.46 High Mar 26
• PRICE: 128.91 @ 06:35 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 128.22/19 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn off Oct 30, 2020 low
• SUP 2: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 126.98 Low Feb 12

EURJPY appears vulnerable near-term with the corrective cycle from 130.67, Mar 18 high likely to extend. The cross has breached the 20-day EMA. The break exposes the 50-day EMA at 128.22 and a trendline support at 128.19. The trendline is drawn off the Oct 30 low. A break of this line would confirm a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper sell-off. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 129.94, Mar 22 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 0.7775 Trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high
• RES 3: 0.7757 High Mar 22
• RES 2: 0.7699 Low Mar 17
• RES 1: 0.7645 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7617 @ 06:44 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 0.7564/63 Low Feb 2 / Mar 25 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.7517 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
• SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone following last week's sell-off. The move lower last week resulted in a break of support 0.7621, Mar 9 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bearish cycle that started at 0.8007, Feb 25 high and paves the way for weakness below 0.7564, Feb 2 low. On the upside, key resistance has been established at 0.7849, Mar 18 high. Bearish!

USDCAD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2643 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2629 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 1.2625 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 1.2516 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

The recent USDCAD recovery remains intact and the pair is holding onto recent gains. Although the move higher is still considered corrective, the continued push higher does suggest scope for an extension of this upleg. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA and the focus is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2643. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.2516, Mar 23 low. A break would refocus attention on major support at 1.2365.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 173.48 1.00 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• RES 3: 172.83 Low May 5
• RES 2: 172.78 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• RES 1: 172.66 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 172.04 @ 05:07 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 171.73 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 171.42 Low Mar 23
• SUP 3: 170.52 Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 4: 170.00 Round number support

Bund futures traded lower Friday. Despite this, a positive short-term tone remains intact. Key resistance at 172.20, Mar 11 high has been cleared. The break last week represents an important S/T bullish development and confirms the end of the recent period of consolidation. Also, this has confirmed a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 25. The focus is on 172.78 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 170.52.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 135.780 1.000 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 3: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 1: 135.520 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 135.370 @ 05:08 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 135.320 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 135.190 Low Mar 23
• SUP 3: 135.010 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 134.870 Low Mar 19 and key short-term support

Bobl futures maintain a firmer tone. Resistance at 135.220, Mar 16 was cleared last week. The break ends the recent period of consolidation and confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. This paves the way for strength towards 135.544 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. 135.320, Mar 24 low is first support.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 112.201 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.199 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 2: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 1: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 112.150 @ 05:25 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: 112.120 Low Mar 22 and 23
• SUP 2: 112.095 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 112.060 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone and. holding onto recent gains. The contract last week breached resistance at 112.125, Mar 1 and 2 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish theme and confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. Attention is on 112.174, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 112.070, Mar 18 low. A break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Attention Is On Key Resistance

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 128.93 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 128.49 @ Close Mar 26
• SUP 1: 127.55 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher last week having defined a key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. The move higher resulted in a climb above former resistance at 128.33, Mar 16 high and further gains would expose the firm resistance and bull trigger at 129.27, Mar 2 high. From a trend perspective, the primary direction remains down. The trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure is 126.79. A break of 129.27 would alter the picture.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 151.33 1.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 2: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 150.39 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 149.98 @ Close Mar 26
• SUP 1: 149.44 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 148.97 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 148.36 Low Mar 18
• SUP 4: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally

BTP futures traded higher last week as the recovery from 148.36, Mar 18 low extended. Resistance is at 150.39, Mar 11 high with a pivotal level at 150.69, 76.4% of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off. The recent focus has been on a resumption of bearish pressure and while resistance remains intact, the S/T risk still appears skewed to the downside. A breach of 148.36 would reinforce this theme. On the upside, clearance of 150.39 would instead be bullish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 3926.56 1.764 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 3: 3900.30 High May 2008
• RES 2: 3889.08 1.618 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 3874.91 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3866.68 @ Close Mar 26
• SUP 1: 3784.09 Low Mar 25
• SUP 2: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 3718.74 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3679.35 Low Mar 8

EUROSTOXX 50 remains below recent highs. The outlook remains bullish though. The breach on Mar 8 of 3742.53, Feb 15 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 3889.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 3784.09, Mar 25 low. A break is required to suggest the start of a correction.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Mar 5 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $70.03 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $68.15 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.12 - High Mar 22 and a firm near-term resistance
• PRICE: $63.21 @ 06:44 Mar 29
• SUP 1: $60.27 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $58.56 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $57.09 - High Jan 13
• SUP 4: $56.07 - Low Feb 2

A bearish theme in Brent crude futures remains intact. The break lower last week confirmed a breach of trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and the 50-day EMA. This reinforces a bearish theme and opens $58.56 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, resistance is at $65.12, Mar 22 high. A move above this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $62.04 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $59.61 @ 06:49 Mar 29
• SUP 1: $57.25 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $53.68 - High Jan 13
• SUP 4: $51.24 - Low Jan 22

WTI futures outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and the 50-day EMA remains exposed. The move lower suggests the current bearish cycle is likely to extend with attention on $55.65 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $62.04, Mar 22 high. A break of this level would ease the current bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1773.9 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1755.5 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $1726.8 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: $1719.3 - Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: $1699.3 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold continues to consolidate with support at $1719.3, Mar 18 low intact. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $1699.3, Mar 12 low and the trigger for a test of key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low. From a short-term trend perspective, the recovery from $1676.9, Mar 8 low remains intact. Key near-term resistance and the bull trigger is at $1755.5, Mar 18 high. A break would open $1773.9, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• RES 3: $27.081 - High Mar 1
• RES 2: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 1: $25.826 - High Mar 23
• PRICE: $24.838 @ 07:18 GMT Mar 29
• SUP 1: $24.411 - Low Mar 25
• SUP 2: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support
• SUP 3: $23.524 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 4: $22.591- Low Dec 12

Silver remains soft. The metal traded lower Thursday clearing support at $24.836, Mar 5 low. Despite the recovery from that day's low, the outlook remains bearish and further weakness is likely. A break of $24.411, Mar 25 low would resume the downleg and open the Jan 18 low and a key support, at $24.057. Initial firm resistance is seen at $25.826, Mar 23 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $26.636, Mar 18 high.