MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY On Cusp of Death Cross

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY On Cusp of Death Cross

• S&P E-Minis traded higher again Thursday. The contract has this week cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA and this has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. Price has also traded above the 4000.00 handle to open 4043.00, the Dec 15 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract traded higher again yesterday. Futures have cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish. The pair traded higher Thursday and cleared 1.0787, the May 30, 2022 high and a key resistance. The breach reinforces the bullish theme. This week’s move above 1.0735, the Dec 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. USDJPY remains soft and has resumed its downtrend following the break of support at 129.52 yesterday, Jan 3 low. With moving average studies in a bear mode condition and a bearish price sequence highlighting a clear downtrend, further weakness is likely. AUDUSD extended higher Thursday, amid global dollar weakness. This retains a bullish theme. The pair has cleared 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and this confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Thursday, extending the current uptrend. This week’s climb maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the current uptrend. WTI futures traded higher Thursday, extending the recent recovery. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of resistance at $81.50, the Jan 3 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle is required to strengthen a bullish theme.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and this week’s extension higher. Price has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures resumed their uptrend Thursday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 102.78, the Jan 6 high. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 141.06 High Dec 14
• RES 3: 140.48 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 139.09 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 138.16 @ 05:04 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: 136.72 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 136.04/135.74 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 3: 135.08 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 133.79 Low Jan 3

Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and this week’s extension higher. Price has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 138.97, 61.8% of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open the 140.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support is at 136.04, the Jan 10 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.610 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 118.427 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 118.250 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 117.800 @ 05:12 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: 117.289 20-Day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.950/740 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 3: 116.540 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 116.030 Low Jan 3

Bobl futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher Thursday, reinforcing bullish conditions. The contract has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the break strengthens the current bull cycle, signalling potential for an extension higher near-term. Attention is on 118.427 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.950, the Jan 10 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Clears The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.118 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 105.940 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 105.825 @ 05:31 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: 105.625/560 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 2: 105..480 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.345 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a positive short-term tone and the contract traded higher Thursday. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and this strengthens the short-term bullish conditions. The focus is on 105.939, 38.2% of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg. A clear break would open the 106.000 handle. On the downside, the firm support to watch lies at 105.625, the Jan 10 low. A break would signal a reversal.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 106.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.20 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg
• RES 1: 104.80 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 104.18 @ Close Jan 12
• SUP 1: 103.64/102.78 Low Jan 12 / High Jan 6
• SUP 2: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 3: 99.97 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 99.18 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures resumed their uptrend Thursday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 102.78, the Jan 6 high. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. A break of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 106.00. Firm support has been defined at 101.40, Oct 10 low.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Rally Extends

• RES 4: 118.96 High Dec 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.93 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 117.12 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 116.57 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 115.43 @ Close Jan 12
• SUP 1: 114.94/113.75 Low Jan 12 / High Jan 9
• SUP 2: 111.59/110.77 Low Jan 6 / Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 109.29 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 108.36 Low Dec 30 low and bear trigger

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Thursday. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and this week’s rally has resulted in a break of the 114.00 and 116.00 handles. The acceleration higher signals scope for a climb towards 117.93, the Dec 13 high. On the downside, a key support lies at 111.59, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm support is seen at 113.75, the Jan 9 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 2: 4175.50 High Feb 16 (cont)
• RES 1: 4153.00 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 4136.00 @ 06:17 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: 3962.60/3871.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3697.00 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 3580.00 Low Nov 3

EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract traded higher again yesterday. Futures have cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. The break represents a key short-term positive development and paves the way for gains towards 4175.50 next, the Feb 16 high (cont). Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reinforcing the current positive trend condition. Initial support lies at 3944.00.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4043.00 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 4021.50 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 3996.50 @ 07:15 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: 3891.50 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend

S&P E-Minis traded higher again Thursday. The contract has this week cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA and this has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. Price has also traded above the 4000.00 handle to open 4043.00, the Dec 15 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 3788.50, the Dec 22 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would resume bearish activity.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Extends This Week’s Bounce

• RES 4: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $87.00 - High Jan 3 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $84.62 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $83.80 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: $81.91/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded higher again Thursday and the contract is holding on to this week’s highs - for now. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $87.00, the Jan 3 high where a break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. The broader trend direction remains down and a reversal lower would instead highlight a resumption of the trend and this would expose the bear trigger at $75.64, the Dec 9 low.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $81.50 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $79.16 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $78.27 @ 07:12 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: $76.65/72.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.31 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Thursday, extending the recent recovery. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of resistance at $81.50, the Jan 3 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The broader trend outlook still appears bearish. A reversal lower would expose the bear trigger that has been defined at $70.31, the Dec 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 3: $1934.4 - High Apr 25, 2022
• RES 2: $1919.9 - High Apr 29, 2022
• RES 1: $1909.8 - High May 5, 2022
• PRICE: $1896.5 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: $1835.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Thursday, extending the current uptrend. This week’s climb maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the current uptrend. The yellow metal has traded above $1900.00, this opens $1919.9, the Apr 29, 2022 high. Support to watch lies at $1835.4, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.824 @ 08:11 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: $22.562 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver is consolidating. The trend condition remains bullish despite the recent pullback. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and fresh trend highs in December reinforce the bullish theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.