MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Staging Modest Bounce

Price Signal Summary - USD Remains Weak

In the equity space, sentiment remains bullish despite the Tuesday pullback. S&P E-minis are consolidating just above yesterday's lows having opened up a small gap with the all time highs posted late last week. The focus is on 4195.50 next, 1.618 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing.

In the FX world, the EURUSD rally faded mid-Tuesday but bullish conditions remain intact following this week's break of 1.1990, Mar 11 high. This opens 1.2116 next, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off. Similarly, GBPUSD rallied earlier this week and cleared 1.3919, Apr 6 high. A break of 1.4017, Mar 4 high would likely trigger stronger gains and open 1.4103, 76.4% of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg. EURGBP has found resistance at 0.8719, Friday's high. The support to watch is 0.8582, Apr 7 low. USDJPY has traded through 108.41, Mar 23 low and is still pressuring the 50-day EMA. A break of the average would open 107.57, trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low

On the commodity front, Gold maintains a bullish tone despite the pullback from the week's high. The focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Brent (M1) and WTI (K1) took a knock late Tuesday, but key supports remain in tact for now. Scope for a climb towards $69.50, Mar 15 high in Brent and $64.88, Mar 18 high in WTI.

In the FI space, Bunds (M1) cleared support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. This strengthens a bearish case and opens 170.05 next, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. Support to watch in Gilts (M1) remains 127.81, Apr 14 low. Initial firm resistance is 128.93, Mar 25 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Gravestone Doji

• RES 4: 1.2193 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2128 Bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high
• RES 2: 1.2116 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2080 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 1.2028 @ 06:04 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.1943 Low Apr 19 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD maintains a bullish tone although the pair did stall at yesterday's high of 1.2080. In pattern terms, yesterday's candle session appears to be a gravestone doji and if correct is a bearish reversal signal. A deeper sell-off would expose firm short-term support at 1.1943, Apr 19 low where a break would strengthen a bearish case. For bulls, a climb above yesterday's high would negate the pattern and open the 1.2116-28 resistance zone.

GBPUSD TECHS: Former Bull Channel Base Provides Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4075 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.4009/17 High Apr 20 / High Mar 4
• PRICE: 1.3920 @ 06:18 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.3810 Low Apr 19 and key intraday support
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD rallied Monday and cleared resistance at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. This strengthened the S/T bullish theme and exposed the former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. The line however intersected at 1.4006 yesterday and has so far capped recent gains - yesterday's high was 1.4009. A break of 1.4009 is required to confirm a resumption of recent strength and open 1.4103, a retracement level. Watch support at 1.3810, Apr 19 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8837 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8673/8719 High Apr 19 / High Apr 16 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8639 @ 06:23 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 0.8589 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8582 Low Apr 7
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430/8397 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP remains below the Apr 16 high of 0.8719. The inability to hold above the 0.8700 handle is an early indication that the recent corrective bounce is over. Monday's sell-off in the cross opens 0.8582, Apr 7 low and exposes the Apr 5 low of 0.8472. Medium-term moving average signals are bearish, in line with the broader downtrend that has dominated since Sep 2020. A break of 0.8719 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.02 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 108.02 @ 06:29 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 107.77 38.2% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally
• SUP 2: 107.64 Trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY maintains a bearish tone following this week's breach of support at 108.41, Mar 23l. The break and subsequent follow through confirms an extension of the current bearish cycle and note, the 50-day EMA at 108.13 has been breached. This exposes 107.64, trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low and the next key hurdle for bears. Initial resistance is at 109.02, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Shooting Star Candle

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.97 High Apr 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.95 @ 06:36 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 129.57 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 129.24/18 Trendline drawn off Oct 30 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY rallied in early Europe Tuesday, resulting in a high of 130.97 before fading back to close near session lows. In pattern terms, yesterday is a shooting star candle and a potential reversal signal. Initial support is at 129.57, Apr 8 lowt. A clear break lower would expose the 50-day EMA at 129.18 and a trendline support at 129.24, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. A break of this zone would signal a reversal. The bull trigger is 130.97.

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing First Support

• RES 4: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.7839 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 1: 0.7816 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 0.7715 @ 06:43 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 0.7706/05 Low Feb 14 and 19 / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone following last week's break of 0.7677, Apr 7 high and this week's follow through. Recent gains also resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and note, price is back above the neckline of a recent head and shoulders reversal pattern. Initial firm support is at 0.7706, Feb 14 and 19 low and this level has been tested. A clear break would concern bulls and instead expose 0.7635, Apr 14 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Finds Support

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2647 High Mar 30 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2624 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 1.2602 @ 06:52 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.2557 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2471 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 4: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger

USDCAD rallied yesterday and is again trading closer to the upper end of its recent price range. Key short term support has been defined at 1.2471, Apr 19 low where a break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback and open 1.2365, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. For bulls, the recovery refocuses attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 1.2647, Mar 30 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 172.12 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 171.29 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 170.83 @ 05:07 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 170.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 2: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 4: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing

A bearish theme still dominates in Bund futures. Monday's sell-off resulted in a break of support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. This strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, opening 170.05 next, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of the key support and bear trigger at 169.24, Feb 24 low. On the upside, firm resistance is at 171.62, Apr 14 high. Initial resistance is at the 20-day EMA at 171.29.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 135.062 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.930 @ 05:10 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 134.660 Low Apr 20 and intraday bear trigger
• SUP 2: 134.446 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 4: 134.00 Round number support

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone despite yesterday's recovery. The contract recently breached support at 134.780, Mar 9 low reinforcing a bearish theme and signalling scope for a deeper sell-off. Attention is on 134.466, a Fibonacci retracement of the rally between Feb 26 - Mar 25. Further out, continued weakness would open 134.140, Feb 26 low and the key support. Initial resistance is at 135.062, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 112.111 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.105 @ 05:24 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 112.060 Low Mar 10 and Apr 20
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures maintain a bearish theme despite yesterday's gains. Support at 112.070, Mar 18 low has recently been probed and attention is on 112.060, Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and open 112.053 and 112.026, Fibonacci retracements. For bulls, a break of 112.165 would reinstate a bullish theme. Initial resistance is 112.111, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Trading Close To Key Resistance

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 and 18
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 128.93 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 128.76 @ Close Apr 20
• SUP 1: 127.81 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday. The underlying downtrend remains intact and short-term gains are still considered corrective. However, the contract is trading close to a host of key resistance levels defined by 128.93, Mar 25 high and 129.27, Mar 2 high. Clearance of this zone would signal a base and a short-term trend reversal. On the downside, support is seen at 127.81 where a break would instead signal a resumption of bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Bears Still In Charge

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.72 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 147.92 @ Close Apr 20
• SUP 1: 147.54 Low Apr 20
• SUP 2: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.16 Low Sep 21, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 145.56 Low Sep 15, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures maintain a bearish tone. The recent break of support at 148.36, Mar 18 low reinforces a bearish theme paving the way for weakness towards 147.56, Mar 5 low. This level was probed yesterday and a clear break would expose the key support and bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. MA studies are in a bear mode reinforcing a bearish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 148.72, the 20-day EMA ahead of 149.47, Apr 8 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Overbought Condition Unwinds

• RES 4: 4150.66 High Jan 17, 2008
• RES 3: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 2: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 4040.88 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 3940.46 @ Close Apr 20
• SUP 1: 3935.27 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: 3841.46 Low Mar 26
• SUP 4: 3831.06 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 gains have stalled and a sharp sell-off dominated yesterday's session. The trend condition is overbought and a short-term pullback is likely a correction that would allow the overbought reading to unwind. The 20-day EMA at 3935.27 marks the next support. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback and expose the 50-day EMA at 3831.06. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 4040.88, Monday's high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Support Seen At The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020
• RES 3: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 1: $68.08 - High Apr 19
• PRICE: $66.10 @ 06:56 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $65.51 - Low Apr 20
• SUP 2: $64.93 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $63.88 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: $61.25 - Low Apr 5

Brent crude futures maintain a bullish tone following the recent break of $63.59, Mar 29 high and despite yesterday's pullback. With short-term momentum studies still pointing north, further gains are likely. Initial resistance is at $68.08, Apr 19 high and further gains would open $69.50, Mar 15 high. On the downside, firm support to watch is at $64.93, the 20-day EMA. A break would instead signal scope for a deeper pullback.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.15 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.77 - Former trendline support drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: $64.68 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $62.24 @ 07:05 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $61.48 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $60.43 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $58.77 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.68 - Low Apr 5

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone following last week's breach of $62.27, Mar 30 high and despite yesterday's pullback. With short-term momentum studies pointing north, further gains are likely. The next key resistance is $64.68/77, the Mar 18 high and a former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low respectively. A break of this zone would open $66.15, Mar 15 high. Initial support is at $61.48, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1790.1 - High Apr 19
• PRICE: $1786.2 @ 07:19 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $1759.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

The Gold outlook is unchanged and remains bullish following last week's gains. The yellow metal recently cleared resistance at $1758.8, Apr 8 high and is trading above the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the break higher last week confirmed a double bottom reversal that had formed since the Mar 8 low. Attention is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. A break would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $26.941 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 2: $26.318 - High Mar 19
• RES 1: $26.304 - High Apr 16
• PRICE: $26.093 @ 07:23 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: $24.686 - Low Apr 13 and a key support handle
• SUP 3: $23.781 - Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7 and key near-term support

Silver short-term bullish conditions remain intact following last week's gains. The metal has breached the 50-day EMA and this places on hold a recent bearish focus. The break higher last week signals scope for gains towards $26.636, Mar 18 high and a key near-term resistance. A break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $24.686, Apr 13 low.