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MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US August Wholesale Inventories Up 0.9%>

--Aug Wholesale Sales +1.7%, Inventory/Sales Ratio 1.28 Vs 1.29
--August Business Inv Tracking +0.7%, Business Sales +0.7%
By Holly Stokes and Sara Haire
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of wholesale inventories rose
0.9% in August, a downward adjustment from the 1.0% gain  
estimated in the advance estimate, while wholesale sales rose 1.7%, 
data released Friday by the U.S. Commerce Department showed. 
     Looking ahead to business inventories report to be released on 
October 13, the tracking looks positive for both business 
inventories and business sales. 
     With the addition of the 0.9% gain for wholesale inventories 
reported Friday, an MNI calculation expects a 0.7% increase in 
business inventories when it is released, assuming no revision to the 
0.7% increase reported for retail inventories in the advance estimate. 
Factory inventories were reported yesterday up 0.4% for August. 
     The 1.7% increase for wholesale sales reported Friday, offsets a 
0.3% decline for retail trade sales from last month's advanced sales 
release and a moderate 0.5% increase for factory shipments reported 
October 5, adding up to a 0.7% increase for business sales barring a 
large revision to retail trade sales.  
     With the rise in August wholesale inventories, but the larger 
increase in wholesale sales, the inventory/sales ratio fell to 1.28 from 
1.29 in July, hitting its lowest since December 2014. The ratio was 
still below the 1.32 mark in August 2016, as sales have increased faster 
than inventories over the last year. 
     Excluding the auto category, wholesale inventories would have been 
up 0.8% in August after a 0.7% increase in the previous month, 
an MNI calculation showed. Sales would have been +1.5% in August if auto 
sales were excluded. This followed a small 0.1% gain in July, with the 
year-over-year being +6.7%. 
     The value of durable inventories rose by 0.8% in the month, 
though auto inventories rose by 2.2%. The remaining durables 
components all posted positive gains, with the exception of machinery 
which was flat for the month. The biggest gains were in autos and 
metals, which rose by 2.3%. 
     Nondurables inventories were up 1.2% in August. The biggest 
gains were seen in drugs, which was up 3.7%, paper up 1.8%, and 
petroleum up 1.7%. Other components were mixed, with apparel, 
alcohol, and misc. nondurables posting a negative.  
     Durables goods sales were up 2.0% in the month, with auto 
sales up 4.2%. The remaining components were mixed, with gains in 
everything except furniture and lumber. 
     Nondurable goods sales were up 1.5% in August after a 0.2% loss in 
July. Petroleum sales were up 6.1% after a small 0.1% increase in July. 
The other component movements were split between gains and losses.
     US Commerce stated that it cannot isolate the effect of Harvey on 
the data, but that they did receive indications that it caused both 
positive and negative effects. 
     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$] 

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