MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 3,000 In Sep 15 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Dips By 2,250 To 205,750

--Initial Claims, Average New 49-Year Lows, But Hurricane Impacts Coming

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 3,000 to 201,000 in the September 15 week, well below the 

208,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey and the lowest since 

the November 15, 1969 week, data released by the Labor Department 

Thursday showed. 

     The level of claims was down 8,000 from the 210,000 level in the 

August 18 employment survey week, a positive for the employment data. 

     The level of initial claims is likely to rise sharply in the coming 

weeks as the impact of Hurricane Florence is felt by displaced workers. 

The timing of their filings may be spread out throughout the weeks, 

rather than all concentrated in one week, as some of the affected areas 

are still unsafe to enter. 

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 2,250 

to 205,750 in the September 15 week, down from the 213,750 level in the 

August 18 employment survey week. The current week's level is the lowest 

since the December 6, 1969 week when it was 204,500.  

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 3,000 as the 213,000 level in the August 25 week 

rolls out of the calculation, keeping the average below its year ago 

level. However, like initial claims, the average will also be impacted 

by the effects of Hurricane Florence in the coming weeks. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 5.4%, or 

8,780 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually saw an increase of 

4.0%, or 6,468 to 168,801. The current week's level was well below the 

212,313 level in the comparable week a year ago, when the hurricane 

impact lingered. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS, 4-WK AVERAGE FALL

     The level of continuing claims fell by 55,000 to 1.645 million in 

the September 8 week, the lowest since the August 4, 1973. Before 

seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell by 35,122 to 1.461 million, 

remaining below the 1.738 million level seen in the comparable week last 

year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 20,750 to 1.692 million, the lowest level since 

the November 17, 1973 week when it was 1.686 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in 

the September 8 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier, 

reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is particularly low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]