MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Nov Personal Income +0.3%; PCE +0.6%>

--Core PCE Price Index +0.1%;Y/Y Now At +1.5% Vs +1.4% In Oct

--Real PCE Running +2.5% SAAR In 4Q Vs +2.2% In 3Q

--Durable Goods Orders +1.3%, But -0.1% Excluding Transportation 

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Personal income rose 0.3% in November, while 

nominal PCE was up 0.6% and the core PCE price index rose 0.1% in the 

month and 1.5% year/year, data released by the Commerce Department 

Friday morning showed. 

     The core price index's 1.5% year/year rise in November was slightly 

ahead of the 1.4% year/year rate in October due to base effects. While 

it was the strongest year/year gains since June, it remains well below 

the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. 

     Analysts had expected personal income to rise 0.4% in the month, 

while nominal PCE was expected to rise 0.4% and the core price index was 

forecast to be up 0.1%. 

     Wages and salaries grew 0.4% in the month, while other income 

categories were generally higher, with the notable exception of a 

decline in transfer payments. 

     Disposable personal income rose 0.4% in the month, while real 

disposable income was up only 0.1%. The saving rate slipped to 2.9% in 

November from 3.2% in October, hitting its lowest point since 2.5% in 

November 2007. 

--PCE GROWTH ON ENERGY 

     The 0.6% jump in current dollar PCE followed a 0.2% gain in 

October. Spending on durable goods were flat in the month, but 

nondurable goods spending surged 1.2% on a spike in energy prices. 

Services spending was up 0.6%.   

     Real PCE rose 0.4% in November, after holding steady in October, as 

the overall PCE price index rose 0.2% on a 4.3% surge in energy prices. 

The overall price index was up 1.8% year/year, an acceleration from the 

1.6% year/year rate in October and the highest since March. 

     After inflation adjustment, durable goods PCE was up 0.2% while 

nondurable goods PCE was up only 0.7%, compared with the 1.2% nominal 

rise. Real services PCE was up 0.4% 

     Through the first two months, the real PCE level for the fourth 

quarter was up 2.5% at an annual rate from the third quarter average. 

Real PCE was up 2.2% in third quarter based on the GDP data released 

Thursday. 

--DURABLES ORDERS SOFT EX TRANSPORTATION 

     Also released on Friday, durable goods orders rose 1.3% in 

November, but were actually down 0.1% excluding a 4.2% jump in 

transportation orders. 

     Transportation orders were lifted by a 14.5% surge in nondefense 

aircraft orders, an 11.9% rise in nondefense aircraft orders and a 1.4% 

increase in motor vehicles orders. In addition, the unlisted 

transportation components were up 6.5%, based on an MNI calculation. 

     Outside of transportation, there were orders declines for fabricated 

metals, machinery, and computers and electronics that offset gains in 

primary metals and the "other durable goods" category. 

     Nondefense capital goods new orders rose 2.6%, but fell 0.1% in the 

month when a sharp rise in civilian aircraft orders is removed. 

     Durable goods shipments rose 1.0%. Nondefense capital goods 

shipments rose 2.1% but were up only 0.3% excluding civilian aircraft 

orders. Durable inventories were up 0.2%, while unfilled orders rose 

0.1% for the month. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]