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Free AccessBRIEF: ECB's Panetta-Time To Start Thinking Of NGEU Successor
MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, Aug 21
MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Nov Personal Income +0.3%; PCE +0.6%>
--Core PCE Price Index +0.1%;Y/Y Now At +1.5% Vs +1.4% In Oct
--Real PCE Running +2.5% SAAR In 4Q Vs +2.2% In 3Q
--Durable Goods Orders +1.3%, But -0.1% Excluding Transportation
By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Holly Stokes
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Personal income rose 0.3% in November, while
nominal PCE was up 0.6% and the core PCE price index rose 0.1% in the
month and 1.5% year/year, data released by the Commerce Department
Friday morning showed.
The core price index's 1.5% year/year rise in November was slightly
ahead of the 1.4% year/year rate in October due to base effects. While
it was the strongest year/year gains since June, it remains well below
the Fed's 2.0% inflation target.
Analysts had expected personal income to rise 0.4% in the month,
while nominal PCE was expected to rise 0.4% and the core price index was
forecast to be up 0.1%.
Wages and salaries grew 0.4% in the month, while other income
categories were generally higher, with the notable exception of a
decline in transfer payments.
Disposable personal income rose 0.4% in the month, while real
disposable income was up only 0.1%. The saving rate slipped to 2.9% in
November from 3.2% in October, hitting its lowest point since 2.5% in
November 2007.
--PCE GROWTH ON ENERGY
The 0.6% jump in current dollar PCE followed a 0.2% gain in
October. Spending on durable goods were flat in the month, but
nondurable goods spending surged 1.2% on a spike in energy prices.
Services spending was up 0.6%.
Real PCE rose 0.4% in November, after holding steady in October, as
the overall PCE price index rose 0.2% on a 4.3% surge in energy prices.
The overall price index was up 1.8% year/year, an acceleration from the
1.6% year/year rate in October and the highest since March.
After inflation adjustment, durable goods PCE was up 0.2% while
nondurable goods PCE was up only 0.7%, compared with the 1.2% nominal
rise. Real services PCE was up 0.4%
Through the first two months, the real PCE level for the fourth
quarter was up 2.5% at an annual rate from the third quarter average.
Real PCE was up 2.2% in third quarter based on the GDP data released
Thursday.
--DURABLES ORDERS SOFT EX TRANSPORTATION
Also released on Friday, durable goods orders rose 1.3% in
November, but were actually down 0.1% excluding a 4.2% jump in
transportation orders.
Transportation orders were lifted by a 14.5% surge in nondefense
aircraft orders, an 11.9% rise in nondefense aircraft orders and a 1.4%
increase in motor vehicles orders. In addition, the unlisted
transportation components were up 6.5%, based on an MNI calculation.
Outside of transportation, there were orders declines for fabricated
metals, machinery, and computers and electronics that offset gains in
primary metals and the "other durable goods" category.
Nondefense capital goods new orders rose 2.6%, but fell 0.1% in the
month when a sharp rise in civilian aircraft orders is removed.
Durable goods shipments rose 1.0%. Nondefense capital goods
shipments rose 2.1% but were up only 0.3% excluding civilian aircraft
orders. Durable inventories were up 0.2%, while unfilled orders rose
0.1% for the month.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.