MNI DATA FORECASTS: Fed, BOE, UK CPI In Focus

(MNI) LONDON

Forecasts for the coming week's main data releases.

True

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Period	Flag	Country	Release	Prior	Consensus
18/09/2023	1215/0815	**	Aug		CA	CMHC Housing Starts	255	250	(k)
18/09/2023	1230/0830	*	Aug		CA	Industrial Product Prices m/m	0.4	0.2	%
18/09/2023	1230/0830	*	Aug		CA	Raw Material Prices m/m	3.5	1.0	%
18/09/2023	1400/1000	**	Sep		US	NAHB Home Builder Index	50.0	50.0
18/09/2023	1530/1130	*	22-Sep		US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
18/09/2023	1530/1130	*	22-Sep		US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
18/09/2023	2000/1600	**	Jul		US	Long Term TICS Flows	195.9	--	USD (b)
18/09/2023	2000/1600	**	Jul		US	Net TICS Flows	147.8	--	USD (b)
19/09/2023	0800/1000	**	Jul		EU	EZ Current Acc	35.8	--	E (b)
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***	Aug		EU	HICP (f) m/m	-0.1	0.6	%
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***	Aug		EU	HICP (f) y/y	5.3	5.3	%
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***	Aug		EU	HICP Core (f) m/m	-0.1	--	%
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***	Aug		EU	HICP Core (f) y/y	5.5	5.3	%
19/09/2023	0900/1000	**	22-Sep		UK	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		CA	Headline CPI m/m	0.6	0.2	%
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		CA	Headline CPI y/y	3.3	3.8	%
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Building Permits	1.442	1.445	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Building Permits Revised	1.441	--	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Completions	1.321	--	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Completions Revised	1.498	--	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Housing Starts	1.452	1.44	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Housing Starts Revised	1.398	--	(m)
19/09/2023	1255/0855	**	16-Sep		US	Redbook Retail Sales y/y (month)	4.3	--	%
19/09/2023	1255/0855	**	16-Sep		US	Redbook Retail Sales y/y (week)	4.6	--	%
19/09/2023	1530/1130	*	22-Sep		US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
19/09/2023	1700/1300	**	Sep		US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
20/09/2023	2301/0001	*	Aug		UK	XpertHR Median Pay Award 3m	5.7	--	%
20/09/2023	0600/0800	**	Aug		DE	PPI m/m	-1.1	0.1	%
20/09/2023	0600/0800	**	Aug		DE	PPI y/y	-6.0	-12.8	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	CPI m/m	-0.4	0.7	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	CPI y/y	6.8	7.0	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Core CPI y/y	6.9	6.8	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	PPI Input y/y	-3.3	-2.6	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	PPI Output y/y	-0.8	-0.6	%
20/09/2023	0600/0800	**	Aug		SE	Unemployment Rate	6.2	--	%
20/09/2023	0900/1100	**	Jul		EU	Construction Prod m/m	-1.0	--	%
20/09/2023	0900/1100	**	Jul		EU	Construction Prod y/y WDA	-0.3	--	%
20/09/2023	1100/0700	**	15-Sep		US	MBA Mortgage Applications w/w	-0.8	--	%
20/09/2023	1430/1030	**	15-Sep		US	Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w	3.953	--	bbl (m)
20/09/2023	1430/1030	**	15-Sep		US	Distillate Stocks w/w change	3.931	--	bbl (m)
20/09/2023	1430/1030	**	15-Sep		US	Gasoline Stocks w/w change	5.561	--	bbl (m)
20/09/2023	1800/1400	***			US	Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum	5.50	5.50	%
21/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Central Govt Net Cash Requirmt	9.983	--	GBP (b)
21/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing	3.48	9.8	GBP (b)
21/09/2023	0645/0845	**	Sep		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment	96.0	95.0
21/09/2023	0645/0845	*	Aug		FR	Retail Sales y/y	-2.1	--	%
21/09/2023	0730/0930	***	Q3		CH	SNB Policy Rate	1.75	2.00	%
21/09/2023	0730/0930	**			SE	Interest Rate	3.75	4.00	%
21/09/2023	0800/1000	***			NO	Interest Rate Decision	4.0	4.25	%
21/09/2023	1100/1200	***			UK	Bank of England Bank Rate	5.25	5.50	%
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***	16-Sep		US	Continuing Claims	1688	--	(k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***	16-Sep		US	Initial Jobless Claims	220	--	(k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***	16-Sep		US	Prev Continuing Claims, Rev	1684	--	(k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***	16-Sep		US	Prev Initial Jobless Claims, Rev	217	--	(k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Corn Net Sales	753.3	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Corn Weekly Exports	726.0	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Soy Net Sales	703.9	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Soy Weekly Exports	408.4	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Wheat Net Sales	437.9	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Wheat Weekly Exports	411.3	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	Sep		US	Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index	12.0	-0.4
21/09/2023	1230/0830	*	Q2		US	Current Account Balance	-219.3	-219.8	USD (b)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	*	Q2		US	U.S. Current Account Balance Revised	-216.2	--	USD (b)
21/09/2023	1400/1000	***	Aug		US	Existing Home Sales	4.07	4.10	(m)
21/09/2023	1400/1600	**	Sep		EU	Consumer Confidence (p)	-16.0	-16.5
21/09/2023	1430/1030	**	15-Sep		US	Natural Gas Stocks w/w	57.0	--	Bcf
21/09/2023	1700/1300	**			US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--	%
22/09/2023	2300/0900	***	Aug		AU	Judo Bank Composite PMI (p)	48.0	--
22/09/2023	2300/0900	***	Aug		AU	Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (p)	49.6	--
22/09/2023	2300/0900	***	Aug		AU	Judo Bank Services PMI (p)	47.8	--
22/09/2023	2301/0001	**	Sep		UK	GfK Consumer Confidence	-25.0	-27.0
22/09/2023	0030/0930	**	Sep		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Composite PMI	52.6	--
22/09/2023	0030/0930	**	Sep		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI	49.6	--
22/09/2023	0030/0930	**	Sep		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Services PMI	54.3	--
22/09/2023	0200/1100	***	Sep		JP	BOJ policy announcement	-0.1	-0.1	%
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Retail Sales m/m	-1.2	0.6	%
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Retail Sales y/y	-3.2	-1.2	%
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Retail Sales(ex-fuel) m/m	-1.4	0.7	%
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Retail Sales(ex-fuel) y/y	-3.4	-1.3	%
22/09/2023	0700/0900	***	Q2		ES	GDP (f) q/q	0.6	0.4	%
22/09/2023	0700/0900	***	Q2		ES	GDP (f) y/y	4.2	1.8	%
22/09/2023	0715/0915	**	Sep		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)	46.0	46.0
22/09/2023	0715/0915	**	Sep		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)	46.0	46.3
22/09/2023	0730/0930	**	Sep		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)	47.3	47.4
22/09/2023	0730/0930	**	Sep		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)	39.1	39.5
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**	Sep		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)	47.9	47.8
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**	Sep		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)	43.5	44.0
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**	Sep		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)	46.7	46.7
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***	Sep		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)	43.0	43.4
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***	Sep		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (p)	49.5	49.1
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***	Sep		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)	48.6	48.8
22/09/2023	1000/1100	**	Sep		UK	CBI Order Books Balance	-15.0	-18.0
22/09/2023	1000/1100	**	Sep		UK	CBI Price Intentions Balance	8.0	--
22/09/2023	1230/0830	**	Jul		CA	Retail Sales (ex-autos) m/m	-0.8	0.5	%
22/09/2023	1230/0830	**	Jul		CA	Retail Sales m/m	0.1	0.4	%
22/09/2023	1345/0945	***	Sep		US	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)	47.9	47.9
22/09/2023	1345/0945	***	Sep		US	S&P Global Services Index (p)	50.5	--
25/09/2023	0700/0900	**	Aug		ES	PPI m/m	--	--	%
25/09/2023	0700/0900	**	Aug		ES	PPI y/y	--	--	%
25/09/2023	0800/1000	***	Sep		DE	IFO Business Climate Index	85.7	--
25/09/2023	1000/1100	**	Sep		UK	CBI Retail Sales Expected Balance	-21.0	--
25/09/2023	1000/1100	**	Sep		UK	CBI Retail Sales Reported Balance	-44.0	--
25/09/2023	1300/1500	**	Sep		BE	BNB Business Sentiment	-14.9	--
25/09/2023	1430/1030	**	Sep		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing index	--	--

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Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Period	Flag	Country	Release	Prior	Consensus
18/09/2023	1215/0815	**	Aug		CA	CMHC Housing Starts	255	250	(k)
18/09/2023	1230/0830	*	Aug		CA	Industrial Product Prices m/m	0.4	0.2	%
18/09/2023	1230/0830	*	Aug		CA	Raw Material Prices m/m	3.5	1.0	%
18/09/2023	1400/1000	**	Sep		US	NAHB Home Builder Index	50.0	50.0
18/09/2023	1530/1130	*	22-Sep		US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
18/09/2023	1530/1130	*	22-Sep		US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
18/09/2023	2000/1600	**	Jul		US	Long Term TICS Flows	195.9	--	USD (b)
18/09/2023	2000/1600	**	Jul		US	Net TICS Flows	147.8	--	USD (b)
19/09/2023	0800/1000	**	Jul		EU	EZ Current Acc	35.8	--	E (b)
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***	Aug		EU	HICP (f) m/m	-0.1	0.6	%
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***	Aug		EU	HICP (f) y/y	5.3	5.3	%
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***	Aug		EU	HICP Core (f) m/m	-0.1	--	%
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***	Aug		EU	HICP Core (f) y/y	5.5	5.3	%
19/09/2023	0900/1000	**	22-Sep		UK	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		CA	Headline CPI m/m	0.6	0.2	%
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		CA	Headline CPI y/y	3.3	3.8	%
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Building Permits	1.442	1.445	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Building Permits Revised	1.441	--	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Completions	1.321	--	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Completions Revised	1.498	--	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Housing Starts	1.452	1.44	(m)
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***	Aug		US	Housing Starts Revised	1.398	--	(m)
19/09/2023	1255/0855	**	16-Sep		US	Redbook Retail Sales y/y (month)	4.3	--	%
19/09/2023	1255/0855	**	16-Sep		US	Redbook Retail Sales y/y (week)	4.6	--	%
19/09/2023	1530/1130	*	22-Sep		US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
19/09/2023	1700/1300	**	Sep		US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--
20/09/2023	2301/0001	*	Aug		UK	XpertHR Median Pay Award 3m	5.7	--	%
20/09/2023	0600/0800	**	Aug		DE	PPI m/m	-1.1	0.1	%
20/09/2023	0600/0800	**	Aug		DE	PPI y/y	-6.0	-12.8	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	CPI m/m	-0.4	0.7	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	CPI y/y	6.8	7.0	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Core CPI y/y	6.9	6.8	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	PPI Input y/y	-3.3	-2.6	%
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	PPI Output y/y	-0.8	-0.6	%
20/09/2023	0600/0800	**	Aug		SE	Unemployment Rate	6.2	--	%
20/09/2023	0900/1100	**	Jul		EU	Construction Prod m/m	-1.0	--	%
20/09/2023	0900/1100	**	Jul		EU	Construction Prod y/y WDA	-0.3	--	%
20/09/2023	1100/0700	**	15-Sep		US	MBA Mortgage Applications w/w	-0.8	--	%
20/09/2023	1430/1030	**	15-Sep		US	Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w	3.953	--	bbl (m)
20/09/2023	1430/1030	**	15-Sep		US	Distillate Stocks w/w change	3.931	--	bbl (m)
20/09/2023	1430/1030	**	15-Sep		US	Gasoline Stocks w/w change	5.561	--	bbl (m)
20/09/2023	1800/1400	***			US	Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum	5.50	5.50	%
21/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Central Govt Net Cash Requirmt	9.983	--	GBP (b)
21/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing	3.48	9.8	GBP (b)
21/09/2023	0645/0845	**	Sep		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment	96.0	95.0
21/09/2023	0645/0845	*	Aug		FR	Retail Sales y/y	-2.1	--	%
21/09/2023	0730/0930	***	Q3		CH	SNB Policy Rate	1.75	2.00	%
21/09/2023	0730/0930	**			SE	Interest Rate	3.75	4.00	%
21/09/2023	0800/1000	***			NO	Interest Rate Decision	4.0	4.25	%
21/09/2023	1100/1200	***			UK	Bank of England Bank Rate	5.25	5.50	%
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***	16-Sep		US	Continuing Claims	1688	--	(k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***	16-Sep		US	Initial Jobless Claims	220	--	(k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***	16-Sep		US	Prev Continuing Claims, Rev	1684	--	(k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***	16-Sep		US	Prev Initial Jobless Claims, Rev	217	--	(k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Corn Net Sales	753.3	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Corn Weekly Exports	726.0	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Soy Net Sales	703.9	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Soy Weekly Exports	408.4	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Wheat Net Sales	437.9	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	14-Sep		US	Wheat Weekly Exports	411.3	--	MT (k)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**	Sep		US	Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index	12.0	-0.4
21/09/2023	1230/0830	*	Q2		US	Current Account Balance	-219.3	-219.8	USD (b)
21/09/2023	1230/0830	*	Q2		US	U.S. Current Account Balance Revised	-216.2	--	USD (b)
21/09/2023	1400/1000	***	Aug		US	Existing Home Sales	4.07	4.10	(m)
21/09/2023	1400/1600	**	Sep		EU	Consumer Confidence (p)	-16.0	-16.5
21/09/2023	1430/1030	**	15-Sep		US	Natural Gas Stocks w/w	57.0	--	Bcf
21/09/2023	1700/1300	**			US	Bid to Cover Ratio	--	--	%
22/09/2023	2300/0900	***	Aug		AU	Judo Bank Composite PMI (p)	48.0	--
22/09/2023	2300/0900	***	Aug		AU	Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (p)	49.6	--
22/09/2023	2300/0900	***	Aug		AU	Judo Bank Services PMI (p)	47.8	--
22/09/2023	2301/0001	**	Sep		UK	GfK Consumer Confidence	-25.0	-27.0
22/09/2023	0030/0930	**	Sep		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Composite PMI	52.6	--
22/09/2023	0030/0930	**	Sep		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI	49.6	--
22/09/2023	0030/0930	**	Sep		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Services PMI	54.3	--
22/09/2023	0200/1100	***	Sep		JP	BOJ policy announcement	-0.1	-0.1	%
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Retail Sales m/m	-1.2	0.6	%
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Retail Sales y/y	-3.2	-1.2	%
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Retail Sales(ex-fuel) m/m	-1.4	0.7	%
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***	Aug		UK	Retail Sales(ex-fuel) y/y	-3.4	-1.3	%
22/09/2023	0700/0900	***	Q2		ES	GDP (f) q/q	0.6	0.4	%
22/09/2023	0700/0900	***	Q2		ES	GDP (f) y/y	4.2	1.8	%
22/09/2023	0715/0915	**	Sep		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)	46.0	46.0
22/09/2023	0715/0915	**	Sep		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)	46.0	46.3
22/09/2023	0730/0930	**	Sep		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)	47.3	47.4
22/09/2023	0730/0930	**	Sep		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)	39.1	39.5
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**	Sep		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)	47.9	47.8
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**	Sep		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)	43.5	44.0
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**	Sep		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)	46.7	46.7
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***	Sep		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)	43.0	43.4
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***	Sep		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (p)	49.5	49.1
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***	Sep		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)	48.6	48.8
22/09/2023	1000/1100	**	Sep		UK	CBI Order Books Balance	-15.0	-18.0
22/09/2023	1000/1100	**	Sep		UK	CBI Price Intentions Balance	8.0	--
22/09/2023	1230/0830	**	Jul		CA	Retail Sales (ex-autos) m/m	-0.8	0.5	%
22/09/2023	1230/0830	**	Jul		CA	Retail Sales m/m	0.1	0.4	%
22/09/2023	1345/0945	***	Sep		US	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)	47.9	47.9
22/09/2023	1345/0945	***	Sep		US	S&P Global Services Index (p)	50.5	--
25/09/2023	0700/0900	**	Aug		ES	PPI m/m	--	--	%
25/09/2023	0700/0900	**	Aug		ES	PPI y/y	--	--	%
25/09/2023	0800/1000	***	Sep		DE	IFO Business Climate Index	85.7	--
25/09/2023	1000/1100	**	Sep		UK	CBI Retail Sales Expected Balance	-21.0	--
25/09/2023	1000/1100	**	Sep		UK	CBI Retail Sales Reported Balance	-44.0	--
25/09/2023	1300/1500	**	Sep		BE	BNB Business Sentiment	-14.9	--
25/09/2023	1430/1030	**	Sep		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing index	--	--

FED'S DALY SAYS PATIENCE IS A PRUDENT STRATEGY RIGHT NOW

MNI BRIEF: ECB “Can’t Rule Out Cuts” On Latest Info - De Cos

MNI BRIEF: ECB Rate Cut Talk Will Depend On Data - De Cos

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany And France To Issue On Monday

MNI: US SEP FLASH S&P MANUF PMI 48.9 (FCST 48.2); AUG 47.9

MNI: CANADIAN JUL RETAIL SALES +0.3%; SALES EX-AUTOS/PARTS +1.0%

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

MNI BRIEF: Highlights From BOC Governor Macklem Speech

MNI BRIEF: Finance Minister Calls BOC Pause 'Welcome Relief'

Real-time Actionable Insight

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Daly Says Too Early To Call Inflation Victory

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany And France To Issue On Monday

MNI: Fed's Bowman Wants 'Further Rate Hikes'

MNI BRIEF: ECB “Can’t Rule Out Cuts” On Latest Info - De Cos

MNI: Fed's Collins Says Further Tightening Not Off Table

MNI DATA FORECASTS: Fed, BOE, UK CPI In Focus

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MNI DATA FORECASTS: Fed, BOE, UK CPI In Focus

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