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MNI DATA IMPACT: UK Employment Stalls Ahead Of Reopening
Fall in LFS jobless rate largely linked to increased inactivity
The recovery in UK employment stalled in March, ahead of the reopening of much of the economy in the latter portion of the month, the latest employment reports released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics show.
Employment fell by 56,000 between February and March, according to PAYE data compiled by HMRC, following a 42,000 increase the previous month (revised downward from the initially-reported 68,000 increase), the first fall since November. Employment remains 827,000 below pre-pandemic levels in February of 2020.
The decline in hiring comes despite the reopening of non-essential shops and some leisure facilities in April, suggesting that businesses were wary of taking on workers despite the loosening of restrictions. LFS data showed a different picture, at least on the surface, with the jobless rate falling to 4.9% in the three months to February, down from 5.0% in the three months to January, despite a 73,000 fall in employment. The jobless rate fell to 4.8% in February from 4.9% in January, according to experimental data.
INACTIVITY
The decline in the jobless rate was largely due to a rise in inactivity to 20.9% from 20.7% in the three months to November, according to a national statistician. Bonuses fell by 5.0% in the three months to February, reducing the growth in total earnings to 4.5% from a 13-year-high of 4.8% in the previous period. Real total earnings declined to 3.7% from 3.9% in the three months to January.
However, real regular earnings accelerated to 4.4%, the highest since the three months to April of 2008, from 4.3% in the three months to January, while real regular earnings rose to a record-high 3.6% from 3.% in the previous period. Statisticians believe the compositional effect, notably the propensity for lower-paid workers to lose their jobs during the pandemic, to account for 2.0% of the increase in real earnings.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.