MNI DATA PREVIEW: Australian Retail Sales Seen Soft In April

By Lachlan Colquhoun

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Retail trade data for April is set for release on Tuesday.

Here are five things of interest to look for in the the Australian Bureau of

Statistics' data.

Soft result expected 

Retail sales turnover at current prices fell 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms

in March as sales stagnated after a surprise (and upwardly revised) 0.9% jump in

February. Inventories at Australian retailers rose 1.7% in the first quarter of

this year, pointing to another soft result for retail sales tomorrow.

Housing sector in doldrums 

Household goods retailing was in negative territory in March, down 0.6% for the

quarter as the ongoing fall in the housing sector continues to bite. Little

improvement is expected tomorrow.

Department stores in negative growth 

The Department Store sector has been under intense pressure from online

channels, and sales were off 1.5% in March. Although there was a 3.5% spike in

February this was an atypical result after a 2.2% fall in January and a 1.2% dip

in December, evidence that the sector continues to struggle.

Cafes and takeaway food in demand 

Sales at cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services posted the strongest

gains, up 1.4% in March. ABS inflation data has shown that food prices are

rising as a result of the ongoing drought, and this is being passed onto retail

consumers and is one of few categories in which sales are increasing.

Factor in RBA outlook 

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut official interest rates

tomorrow, only hours after the retail sales release. The ongoing weakness in the

retail market is indicative of lacklustre consumer sentiment which is

undermining the economy.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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