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Free AccessMNI DATA PREVIEW: US Jobless Claims To Fall Faster To 2.4M
By Brooke Migdon
WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. weekly jobless claims are expected to fall to 2.4
million Thursday, taking the total number of unemployment insurance applications
since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic to nearly 40 million.
The figure in the Bloomberg forecast would lag the previous week's nearly 3
million by roughly half a million, falling more quickly than last week's 195,000
decrease that was the weakest weekly decline since initial claims levels began
slowing in April.
Initial claims have declined by an average of 14% per week since peaking in
late March and have likely fallen further on momentum from state reopenings this
month, according to analysts. Still, easing social distancing measures "has and
will continue to be gradual" to stop a second wave of infections, and many
states are still working through significant backlogs that continue to inflate
the level of initial claims, analysts at Bank of America, expecting 2.5 million
filings Thursday, wrote in a research note.
The Labor Department this month also began factoring claimants filing for
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment
Compensation, programs established as part of the CARES Act signed by President
Donald Trump in March, into its weekly unemployment insurance report, which
could push claims levels slightly higher.
At the same time, claims filed through May 9 are also expected to be
revised down following a correction issued by the Connecticut Department of
Labor.
--OPTIMISM IN CONTINUING CLAIMS
The median forecast for continuing claims, which represents unemployed
workers who have received at least one week of benefits, is expected to climb to
23.5 million Thursday.
Continuing claims rose more "modestly" to 22.8 million last week after
increasing to 22.4 million for the week ending April 25, analysts at TD
Securities wrote in a research note, likely due to some laid-off workers being
rehired as states reopen.
Analysts at Nomura said the relatively small weekly increases in continuing
claims in recent weeks are signs of "further labor market stabilization,"
providing "early evidence of rehiring activity."
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.