MNI DATA PREVIEW: US July Retail Sales Seen +0.3%, +0.4% Ex MV

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Analysts are expecting headline June retail sales to

rise by 0.3% and ex-motor vehicle sales to rise by 0.4% when it is released on

Thursday, with the MNI survey and the Bloomberg consensus agreeing. Forecast

history shows a strong tendency by analysts to overestimate July headline sales,

but there is no clear risk for sales ex. motor vehicles. The data will be

released on Thursday.

     Here are some key things to keep in mind:

     - Analysts have shown a slight tendency to overestimate July headline

retail sales in the past 20 years of data, with 10 overestimates and nine

overestimates. More recently, the split is even more pronounced, with six

overestimates and three underestimates in the last 10 years.

     - In the past 20 years, analysts have overestimated ex. auto sales 10 times

and underestimated only eight times, but with a roughly even split of 5-4 in

favor of underestimates over the last 10 years. The data suggest a miss could go

in either direction.

     - The Consumer Price Index for gasoline rose by 2.5% in July following a

dramatic 3.6% decline in June and a smaller 0.5% drop in May. The CPI for

gasoline tracks remarkably well with the gas station sales component of the

retail report, signaling a probable increase in July gas station sales.

     - Amazon Prime day, a two-day global online shopping event on July 15-16,

was particularly strong this year, selling more than 175 million items

worldwide. Following the sale, the online retailer announced it had sold more

than $600,000 in electronic devices alone, suggesting strong consumer spending

will be reflected in that area.

     - Strong Retail sales were up 7.5% SAAR in the second quarter, a strong

gains after a weak first quarter. Sales were up 6.9% excluding motor vehicles

and 7.5% for the control group. The expected monthly gains in July should start

the third quarter off on a strong footing.

     - Data gathered by MNI from major auto manufacturers suggests auto sales

were sluggish in the month, suggesting some downside risk for the headline

number.

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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