MNI DATA PREVIEW: US Payrolls Seen Slowing to 160K From 266K

--Unemployment Rate Expected at 3.5%, Matching Record Low

By Ryan Hauser

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to climb by 160k in

December, coming off November's ten-month high of 266k as factory jobs weaken.

     Here are some key points to track in Friday's release:

     -Employment growth will likely slow to 160k according to Bloomberg's median

estimate, a decline from November payrolls inflated by 54k GM workers returning

from a strike that ended October 29.

     -The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.5%, matching the lowest

in half a century.

     -Private payrolls are expected to gain 153k, down from 254k in November. 

     -Manufacturing likely tapered off as the ISM factory PMI in December fell

to 47.2 from 48.1 in November while the employment sub-index retreated to 45.1

from 46.6. This contrasted with ISM's Non-Manufacturing PMI employment

sub-index, which still showed expansion while slipping to 55.2 in December from

55.5 in November.

     -Jobless claims have remained stable, with the Department of Labor

reporting a 233,250 four-week moving average.

     -December's ADP private payrolls saw a 202k gain against an estimated 167k,

suggesting Friday's payrolls may come with some upside risk. However, the ADP is

a lagging indicator, so the uptick in December was likely boosted by November's

numbers and the influx of the GM workers previously on strike.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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