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Clarity of PBOC Guidance 7-day Repo Rate in 2 weeks 10-year CGB yield in 3 months
Better Same Worse Rising Same Falling Rising Same Falling
2021
Oct 14.3 85.7 0.0 71.4 21.4 7.1 64.3 25.0 10.7
Sep 14.8 85.2 0.0 70.4 18.5 11.1 14.8 40.7 44.4
Aug 11.5 88.5 0.0 46.2 23.1 30.8 7.7 46.2 46.2
Jul 16.0 84.0 0.0 56.0 32.0 12.0 8.0 48.0 44.0
Jun 20.8 79.2 0.0 20.8 45.8 33.3 12.5 66.7 20.8
May 12.5 83.3 4.2 25.0 62.5 12.5 12.5 37.5 50.0
Apr 34.8 65.2 0.0 39.1 34.8 26.1 13.0 60.9 26.1
Mar 42.9 57.1 0.0 47.6 23.8 28.6 33.3 57.1 9.5
Feb 42.1 57.9 0.0 36.8 15.8 47.4 63.2 26.3 10.5
Jan 36.8 63.2 0.0 52.6 26.3 21.1 10.5 52.6 36.8
2020
Dec 37.5 62.5 0.0 50.0 43.8 6.3 12.5 50.0 37.5
Nov 12.5 87.5 0.0 43.8 31.3 25.0 68.8 25.0 6.3
Oct 25.0 75.0 0.0 56.3 31.3 12.5 56.3 37.5 6.3
Sep 31.3 68.8 0.0 68.8 12.5 12.8 50.0 31.3 18.8
Aug 43.8 56.3 0.0 50.0 31.3 18.8 25.0 37.5 37.5
Jul 31.3 68.8 0.0 56.3 37.5 6.3 37.5 37.5 25.0
Jun 43.8 56.3 0.0 75.0 25.0 0.0 50.0 37.5 12.5
May 40.0 60.0 0.0 26.7 53.3 20.0 13.3 46.7 40.0
Apr 42.9 57.1 0.0 28.6 50.0 21.4 14.3 50.0 35.7
Mar 20.0 80.0 0.0 33.3 66.7 0.0 33.3 26.7 40.0
Feb 46.7 53.3 0.0 33.3 46.7 20.0 33.3 40.0 26.7
Jan 7.7 76.9 15.4 30.8 7.7 61.5 36.4 36.4 27.3
2019
Dec 23.1 76.9 0.0 76.9 23.1 0.0 46.2 46.2 7.7
Nov 33.3 66.7 0.0 25.0 33.3 41.7 44.4 33.3 22.2
Oct 16.7 83.3 0.0 33.3 41.7 25.0 58.3 33.3 8.3
Sep 41.7 50.0 8.3 78.6 14.3 7.1 25.0 33.3 41.7
Aug 30.8 69.2 0.0 38.5 46.2 15.4 30.8 46.2 23.1
Jul 28.6 64.3 7.1 21.4 28.6 50.0 21.4 35.7 42.9
Jun 58.3 41.7 0.0 75.0 8.3 16.7 8.3 25.0 66.7
May 16.7 83.3 0.0 66.7 16.7 16.7 25.0 41.7 33.3
Apr 14.3 78.6 7.1 64.3 21.4 14.3 69.2 15.4 15.4
Mar 7.1 92.9 0.0 42.9 28.6 28.6 21.4 42.9 35.7
Feb 33.3 66.7 0.0 53.3 33.3 13.3 46.7 20.0 33.3
Jan 43.8 56.3 0.0 56.3 25.0 18.8 25.0 12.5 62.5
2018
Dec 5.6 94.4 0.0 72.2 22.2 5.6 44.4 16.7 38.9
Nov 11.8 88.2 0.0 23.5 52.9 23.5 17.6 47.1 35.3
Oct 20.0 73.3 6.7 20.0 53.3 26.7 13.3 40.0 46.7
Sep 22.2 77.8 0.0 16.7 50.0 33.3 11.1 50.0 38.9
Aug 22.2 77.8 0.0 27.8 55.6 16.7 38.9 22.2 38.9
Jul 21.1 73.7 5.3 10.5 42.1 47.4 15.8 52.6 31.6
Jun 42.1 57.9 0.0 15.8 26.3 57.9 15.8 36.8 47.4
May 26.3 68.4 5.3 57.9 21.1 21.1 31.6 31.6 36.8
Apr 31.6 68.4 0.0 5.3 21.1 73.7 36.8 36.8 26.3
Mar 30.0 65.0 5.0 45.0 30.0 25.0 35.0 45.0 20.0
Jan 15.0 75.0 10.0 50.0 35.0 15.0 45.0 30.0 25.0
2017
Dec 26.3 68.4 5.3 73.7 15.8 10.5 52.6 26.3 21.1
Nov 26.3 63.2 10.5 73.7 10.5 15.8 57.9 26.3 15.8
Oct 42.1 57.9 0.0 73.7 26.3 0.0 47.4 26.3 26.3
Sep 31.6 52.6 15.8 52.6 26.3 21.1 36.8 52.6 10.5
Aug 15.8 42.1 42.1 42.1 31.6 26.3 47.4 31.6 21.0
Jul 52.6 47.4 0.0 42.1 31.6 26.3 47.4 31.6 21.0
Jun 31.6 68.4 0.0 73.7 26.3 0.0 47.4 10.5 42.1
May 42.1 42.1 15.8 52.6 36.8 10.5 57.9 15.8 26.3
Apr 36.8 63.2 0.0 47.4 47.4 5.3 78.9 0.0 21.1
Mar 30.0 60.0 10.0 85.0 10.0 5.0 65.0 30.0 5.0
Feb 47.4 52.6 0.0 42.1 42.1 15.8 57.9 15.8 26.3
Jan 35.0 65.0 0.0 50.0 30.0 20.0 80.0 15.0 5.0
2016
Dec 57.1 23.8 19.0 71.4 28.6 0.0 81.0 9.5 9.5
Nov 21.1 73.7 5.3 42.1 57.9 0.0 21.1 52.6 26.3
Sep 0.0 89.5 10.5 31.6 68.4 0.0 26.3 42.1 31.6
Aug 15.8 84.2 0.0 10.5 68.4 21.1 31.6 52.6 15.8
Jul 5.3 84.2 10.5 5.3 73.7 21.1 36.8 31.6 31.6
Jun 15.0 85.0 0.0 15.0 60.0 25.0 35.0 50.0 15.0
May 57.1 42.9 0.0 19.0 76.2 4.8 14.3 81.0 4.8
Apr 47.6 47.6 4.8 14.3 85.7 0.0 23.8 66.7 9.5
Mar 40.0 55.0 5.0 15.0 75.0 10.0 20.0 65.0 15.0
Feb 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 20.0 60.0 20.0
Jan 70.0 30.0 0.0 30.0 70.0 0.0 25.0 60.0 15.0

Source: MNI China Liquidity Survey