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ACGB Apr-24 Under Pressure


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CPI In The Spotlight

6 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily Dollar-Asia FX Technical
Analysis Pdf
     DOLLAR-SING TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below Sgd1.3587
*RES 4: Sgd1.3787 - High July 13 2017 
*RES 3: Sgd1.3786 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: Sgd1.3745 - 2018 High July 3 
*RES 1: Sgd1.3675 - High July 5
*PRICE: Sgd1.3646 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Sgd1.3603 - Low July 4 
*SUP 2: Sgd1.3587 - Low June 26 
*SUP 3: Sgd1.3556 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Sgd1.3531 - Low June 22
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs have defined so far this week although the lack of
topside follow through Tuesday and resistance layers building leaves the pair
looking a little offered. Bears now look for a close below Sgd1.3587 to ease
bullish pressure and target an initial correction back to Sgd1.3486-1.3556 where
the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls now need a close above $1.3745 to confirm traction
above the 100-WMA (Sgd1.3683).
     DOLLAR-WON TECHS: Krw1109.4 & 200-WMA Key Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: Krw1131.7 - High Oct 27
*RES 3: Krw1127.1 - 200-WMA
*RES 2: Krw1125.2 - 2018 High June 27
*RES 1: Krw1121.1 - High July 5
*PRICE: Krw1118.3 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Krw1109.4 - Low June 25
*SUP 2: Krw1103.5 - Low June 20
*SUP 3: Krw1098.6 - 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Krw1098.4 - Monthly High Feb 6 now support
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of the 200-WMA appears to be taking its
toll with correcting O/B daily studies also weighing. Bulls continue to look for
a close above the 200-WMA to reconfirm the bullish bias and target Krw1150.7
Sept 2017 monthly highs. Bears now need a close below Krw1109.4 to shift focus
back to Krw1098.4-1103.5 where the 55-WMA is situated and below Krw1098.4 to
target the 200-DMA (Krw1086.3).
     DOLLAR-MYR TECHS: Below Myr4.0330 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: Myr4.0920 - High Nov 30 
*RES 3: Myr4.0770 - 55-WMA 
*RES 2: Myr4.0620 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 1: Myr4.0480 - 2018 High July 3
*PRICE: Myr4.0410 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Myr4.0330 - Low June 29 
*SUP 2: Myr4.0112 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 3: Myr4.0104 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Myr3.9950 - Low June 25
*COMMENTARY: The closes above the 200-DMA & 200-WMA (Myr4.0260) add support to
the bullish case with focus on the Myr4.0450-0920 region where the 55-WMA is
located. O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that,
bears look for a close below Myr4.0330 to gain breathing room and below
Myr3.9950 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, easing bullish pressure, with below
Myr3.9250 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.
     DOLLAR-CNH TECHS: Below Cnh6.5948 To Target Cnh6.4922-5366
*RES 4: Cnh6.7326 - 2018 High July 3 
*RES 3: Cnh6.6798 - Hourly support July 2 & 3 now resistance 
*RES 2: Cnh6.6724 - High July 4 
*RES 1: Cnh6.6616 - High July 5
*PRICE: Cnh6.6528 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Cnh6.6625 - Low July 5
*SUP 2: Cnh6.6092 - Low June 28
*SUP 3: Cnh6.5948 - High June 26 now support
*SUP 4: Cnh6.5567 - High June 25 now support
*COMMENTARY: The pair took its first backward step in around three weeks with
2018 & 8mth highs lacking follow though above key resistance Tuesday. Daily
momentum divergence, O/B daily and weekly studies remain a concern and currently
weigh. The Cnh6.5948 support remains key. Bears look for a close below this
level to hint at a move back to Cnh6.4922-5366 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls
now need a close above Cnh6.6798 to shift focus back to 2018 highs.
     DOLLAR-PHP TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Php53.147
*RES 4: Php54.325 - High Dec 2 2005 
*RES 3: Php53.990 - 2006 High June 16 
*RES 2: Php53.736 - 2018 High June 26 
*RES 1: Php53.531 - High July 2
*PRICE: Php53.379 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Php53.315 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: Php53.147 - High June 12 now support 
*SUP 3: Php52.945 - Low June 12 
*SUP 4: Php52.773 - High May 30 now support
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on recent 2018 & 12+yr highs which
is less than ideal for bulls with daily studies lingering at O/B levels and the
Bollinger top (Php53.645) just above. Bears look for a close below Php53.147 to
hint at a move back to Php52.267-636 with below Php52.773 to add weight to the
case. While the 21-DMA supports bulls maintain focus on tests of the daily bull
channel top around Php54.663 today.
     DOLLAR-THB TECHS: Below Thb32.93 To Ease Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: Thb33.59 - 100-WMA
*RES 3: Thb33.54 - Monthly High Oct 3 
*RES 2: Thb33.35 - High Oct 27 
*RES 1: Thb33.30 - 2018 High July 3
*PRICE: Thb33.20 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Thb33.05 - Low July 4 
*SUP 2: Thb32.93 - Low June 27 
*SUP 3: Thb32.79 - Low June 21 
*SUP 4: Thb32.58 - High Jan 2 now support
*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 highs retained immediate focus on Thb33.35-59 where
monthly highs and the 100-WMA are situated. In saying that, correcting very O/B
daily studies combined with hesitation ahead of Thb33.35 are now key concerns
for bulls. Key support is noted at Thb32.93 with bears needing a close below to
gain breathing room and below Thb32.58 to shift initial focus back to the
Thb32.16-23 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted.
     DOLLAR-IDR TECHS: Idr14190-250 Support Region Key
*RES 4: Idr14730 - 2015 High Sept 29 
*RES 3: Idr14620 - Low Oct 1 2015 now resistance 
*RES 2: Idr14480 - Low Oct 5 2015 now resistance 
*RES 1: Idr14455 - 2018 High July 3
*PRICE: Idr14380 @ 2300GMT
*SUP 1: Idr14250 - Low July 2 
*SUP 2: Idr14190 - Low June 28 
*SUP 3: Idr14110 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*SUP 4: Idr14053 - Low June 22
*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & nearly 3 yr highs again lacked follow through Tuesday
which is less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from very O/B
levels and daily momentum divergence. Bears now need a close below Idr14250 to
ease bullish pressure and below Idr14190 to shift focus back to Idr13970-14110
where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bulls currently focus on Idr14480-620 while
Idr14250 supports.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: