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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Shorts Reloading

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Shorts Reloading

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Shorts Reloading

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Since our last update in mid-January, European bond futures structural positioning has been mixed.
  • While most contracts remain fairly far removed from the long-leaning overall positioning seen at end-2023, shorts are starting to re-emerge.
  • Last week saw trade leaning to longer structural positioning, with short covering and long-setting evident across most contracts.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi5Feb2024.pdf


  • GERMANY: Schatz and Buxl remain in structurally flat positioning, unchanged since our mid-January update. Bobl has bucked the overall trend by moving from very slight short territory to flat currently. And Bund has now completed the reversal from very long positioning in December to short currently. Last week saw mixed trade: Schatz short setting, Bobl/Bund short covering, and Buxl long setting.
  • OAT: OAT remains in flat structural positioning, where it has been for most of the past half-year. Trade last week was indicative of long setting.
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning, like Bund, has moved to long in late 2023, to flat in Jan, to short structural positioning currently. in our previous two updates. Some long-setting was seen last week.
  • BTP: BTP structural positioning stands apart by moving into long territory for the first time since September, from flat previously, with some short covering seen last week.



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