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MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday's European calendar gets underway at 0645GMT, when
the French industrial production numbers are reported.
     At 0830GMT, the main UK data of the day is expected, when the Industrial
production data, trade data and construction output numbers are expected.
     The Office of National Statistics' short-term indicators dataset, due out
August 10, will provide the final pieces of the Q2 IOP/trade jigsaw.
     In its provisional estimate of Q2 GDP growth, published July 26, the ONS
envisaged industrial production and construction faring better in June and the
preliminary poll of analysts' expectations point to similar results.
     Concerning IOP, the ONS pencilled in a return to growth in June albeit a
modest one. After contracting 0.1% m/m in May they saw a growth of 0.1% m/m in
June. The equivalent MNI median is a bit more optimistic, with growth of 0.4%
m/m expected.
     The preliminary findings from the MNI survey also see manufacturing
returning to growth. After contracting 0.2% m/m in May a 0.3% m/m rise is
expected by analysts. The ONS, on the other hand, saw manufacturing output down
0.1% m/m in June.
     After revising up May's month-on-month outturn 0.4pp to -0.8%, the ONS
forecast a punchy rebound in Construction output in June. At 1.8% m/m, this is a
touch over what the analysts polled in our survey felt likely. The MNI median
looks for a 1.5% m/m rise in output in June, for a 1.8% rise on the year.
     At 1200GMT, the UK's NIESR monthly GDP estimate will be released.
     Across the Atlantic, the US jobless claims data will be released, along
with the July PPI data.
     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to remain flat at 240,000
in the August 5 week after a 5,000 decrease in the previous week. The four-week
moving average, which fell by 2,500 in the July 29 week, would decline by 2,000
in the coming week as the 248,000 level in the July 8 week drops out of the
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
     Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in July after a small 0.1% rise
in June. Food prices are expected to slow after a 0.6% gain in June, but energy
prices are forecast to rebound after a 0.5% decline in the previous month on a
return to more seasonable temperatures. Likewise, PPI excluding food and energy
is forecast to rise 0.2% after a modest 0.1% gain in June.
     At the same time, the Canadian new housing price index will be published.
     New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will deliver the
opening remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on Wage Inequality in the Region
in NYC, with audience Q&A.
     The US Natural Gas Stocks data will be published at 1430GMT.
     Late US data will see the publication of the Treasury Budget at 1800GMT and
the Fed's Weekly M2 Money Supply Data at 2030GMT.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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