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MNI BRIEF: Fed's Powell Sees 'Couple' More Years of QT
MNI European Morning Briefing
LONDON (MNI) - First on the economic docket on Thursday are French HICP
figures at 0645GMT.
At 0830GMT the BoE release their Quarterly Credit Conditions report.
Eurozone Industrial Production figures are scheduled for 0900GMT.
The first US release of the day is scheduled for 1230GMT, US Weekly Jobless
Claims. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 8,000 to
252,000 in the October 7 week after a 12,000 decease in the previous week. The
levels of initial and continuing filings remain elevated, particularly in the
hurricane-impacted regions, but should trend lower as those impacts begin to
level the data. The four-week moving average would fall by 7,250 in the coming
week as the 281,000 level in the September 9 week drops out of the calculation,
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Also at 1230GMT are US PPI data. Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.4%
in September after softer-than-expected readings in August. The impact of the
hurricanes should again be seen in energy prices, particularly gasoline prices,
while food prices are expected to rebound after a substantial 1.3% drop in
August. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to post a 0.2% gain
after a below-expectation 0.1% increase in the previous month.
Alongside these US releases is the Canadian New Housing Price Index.
At 1345GMT is the US Bloomberg Comfort Index.
On the docket at 1430GMT are US Natural Gas Stocks and a speech from
Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell in Washington. Powell will deliver
Keynote address on Emerging Markets at 2017 IIF Annual Membership Meeting.
Also on the schedule for 1430GMT is ECB President Mario Draghi who will
participate in a panel at 4th "Rethinking Macro Policy" conference organised by
IMF and hosted by Peterson Institute, in Washington, D.C., USA. Federal Reserve
Governor Lael Brainard will also participate.
It never rains, it pours, 1430GMT markets are also due to hear from ECB
Executive Board member Peter Praet at the JPMorgan Investor Seminar, in
Delayed by one day due to Columbus Day on Monday, and slightly later than
usual, US DoE Crude Oil Stocks at 1500GMT, US Kansas City Fed Labour Market
Conditions Index is also released.
1800GMT sees the release of US Treasury Budget data. The Treasury statement
for September, and FY 2017, should show some deterioration from the previous
year. For September specifically, a shift in transfer payments from October and
outlays for hurricane-relief should be significant factors that will offset tax
receipts. Analysts expect a $1.5 billion deficit for the September tax month,
down from a $33.5 billion surplus in September 2016.
Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins participates in a
panel discussion at the Institute of International Finance in Washington D.C.
with remarks due at 1915GMT.
Some later speakers at the 4th "Rethinking Macro Policy" conference
organised by IMF and hosted by Peterson Institute, in Washington D.C., ECB
Executive Board member Benoit Coeure and BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane is to
speak at 1945GMT, Haldane's remarks will be released at 1745GMT.
ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger participates in panel at
Institute of International Finance's Annual Membership Meeting, in Washington,
D.C. at 2010GMT.
At 2030GMT in the US is the Fed's Weekly Money Supply Data.
Rounding off the day, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic
is to deliver a speech on "Balance Sheet Normalization in the United States" at
the conference on "Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons Learned" in Hong
Kong, with audience Q&A at 0115GMT, 2115ET.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: email@example.com
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