MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

31 July 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) 162.67 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 162.97 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 162.67 High July 24

*RES 2: 162.50 High July 27

*RES 1: 162.14 Hourly support July 27 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.03

*SUP 1: 161.89 Hourly resistance July 28 now support

*SUP 2: 161.59 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 161.55 Hourly support July 28

*SUP 4: 161.37 Low July 28

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 161.56 support Friday lacked follow through with

the break reversed and a close that sees focus back to 162.14-67. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 162.67 to shift immediate focus to 163.05-163.31 and

overall focus back to 164.13. The Bollinger top (162.63) is the key concern for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Bears now look for a close below

161.89 to gain breathing room and below 161.02 to target 160.17-31.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) 132.01 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 132.40 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 132.35 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 132.25 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 132.15 High July 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.11

*SUP 1: 132.01 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 131.87 Low July 28

*SUP 3: 131.82 Low July 26

*SUP 4: 131.75 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA resulted in fresh highs for

the week with bulls currently focused on 132.25-48 where the bull channel top,

55 & 100-DMAs are noted. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (132.16) are

key concerns for bulls. Initial support is now noted at 132.01 with bears

needing a close below to shift focus to 131.64-87. Below 131.64 remains needed

to shift focus back to 131.30 July lows.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) 112.010 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.140 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.110 Low May 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: 112.090 High June 16 

*RES 1: 112.080 High July 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.050

*SUP 1: 112.020 Low July 28, 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 112.010 Hourly support July 26 

*SUP 3: 111.990 Low July 15, Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 111.970 Low July 24

*COMMENTARY: Higher daily highs and lows continue which adds support to the

bullish case. Layers of resistance remain 112-090/110 with bulls needing a close

above to target 112-180/230 although the channel top may slow the move. Layers

of support continue to accumulate with bears needing a close below 112.010 to

shift focus back to 111.950-990 where the daily bull channel base is located.

Daily studies lingering at O/B remain the key concern for bulls.

GILT TECHS: (U17) Above 127.20 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: 126.92 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 126.82 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 126.67 High July 24 

*RES 1: 126.54 High July 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 126.21

*SUP 1: 125.86 Hourly support July 26 

*SUP 2: 125.71 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 125.62 High July 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 125.51 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy and flirting with the 21-DMA Tuesday bears

were unable to manage the break below 125.62 needed to confirm focus on

124.71-95. Support on dips provides bulls breathing room but the 126-67-127-20

resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a close above 127.20 to end

bearish hopes and shift initial focus to 127.66. O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top (126.68) are key concerns for bulls.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below 99.590

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.650 High June 21

*RES 2: 99.618 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.610 High July 27 & 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.600

*SUP 1: 99.590 Low July 27

*SUP 2: 99.570 Low July 25

*SUP 3: 99.560 Low July 20

*SUP 4: 99.540 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 99.590 resistance is gaining traction with bulls

shifting focus to tests of 99.650 and then 2017 highs above. The Bollinger top

and O/B daily studies remain key concerns for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears now need a close below 99.590 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and hint at a correction back to 99.540-560 where the 21-DMA & 200-DMAs

are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.285 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.305 - 2017 High June 14 & 22 

*RES 1: 100.300 - High July 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.285 - Low July 25 - 28

*SUP 2: 100.275 - High July 14 & 17 now support

*SUP 3: 100.274 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.268 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The bearish key day reversal failed to produce a break lower with

support at 100.285. Bears look for a close below this level to ease bullish

pressure and signal a correction back to 100.268-275 where 21 & 55-DMAs and the

daily bull channel base are situated. While 100.285 supports bulls retain the

upper hand and focus on a break of 100.305 needed to target the 100.330-360

region. The Bollinger top and O/B studies remain the key concerns for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 125-070/150 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 126-290 - High June 26 

*RES 3: 126-120 - High July 21 & 24 

*RES 2: 126-060 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 126-020 - Low July 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 126-010 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-250 - Hourly support July 28

*SUP 2: 125-210 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 3: 125-150 - Low July 25

*SUP 4: 125-090 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 125-070/150 support region remains key with the 100-DMA noted

at 125-090. Bulls take comfort in bounces from 125-150 although the 126-060/120

resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close above 126-120 to confirm a

break of the bear channel top and shift focus to 126-290/127-080 where 2017

highs are noted. Bears look for a close below 125-070 to end bullish hopes and

shift initial focus to 124-210/250.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.228-229 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.366 - High July 13

*RES 3: 2.357 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 1: 2.285 - Low July 28

*PRICE: 2.280 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.250 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 3: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24 

*SUP 4: 2.228 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection around 2.337 last week leaves the yield looking heavy

and immediate focus on 2.228-229 where the 200-WMA is situated. Bears now look

for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm focus back on the 2.103 2017 low and

below 2.103 to target1.879. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls

needing a close above 2.337 to see pressure back on 2.357-396 where the bear

channel top and July highs are located.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 100-DMA 

*RES 4: 3519.44 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 3508.90 Hourly support July 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3480.78 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3472.07 Low July 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3467.73

*SUP 1: 3450.10 Low July 28 

*SUP 2: 3431.19 Low July 24 

*SUP 3: 3407.33 Monthly Low Apr 19 

*SUP 4: 3390.04 Low Mar 13

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA continues with sideways trading

3431.19-3553.37 continuing. 3519.44-3555.37 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear

channel top are situated remains key. Bulls need a close above 3555.37 to

confirm a bullish bias and above 3615.06 to target 2017 highs. The 3431.19

support remains key with bears needing a close below to shift overall focus to

the 200-DMA (3361.72).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]