MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

1 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) 164.85 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 166.40 2017 High Feb 24

*RES 3: 165.93 Monthly High Apr 18

*RES 2: 165.69 High Aug 29

*RES 1: 165.31 High Aug 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 165.22

*SUP 1: 164.85 Low Aug 31

*SUP 2: 164.58 Low Aug 28

*SUP 3: 164.36 Low Aug 25

*SUP 4: 164.26 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Tuesday remains a concern for

bulls and sees bulls needing a close above 165.31 to retain focus on 165.69-93.

The Bollinger top (165.59) and O/B studies remains the key concern for bulls.

Having dipped below the channel base (165.12) the 164.85 support is now key.

Bears need a close below 164.85 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to

shift immediate focus to 164.00-36 where the 21-DMA is located.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) 132.94 & 133.24 Levels Key

*RES 4: 133.55 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 133.36 High Aug 29 

*RES 2: 133.33 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 133.24 High Aug 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 133.17

*SUP 1: 133.06 Low Aug 30

*SUP 2: 133.00 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 132.94 Low Aug 28

*SUP 4: 132.84 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Tuesday's high leaves the contract

looking a little heavy with the 132.94-133.06 support key. Daily studies looking

to correct from O/B increase the risk of a correction with bears needing a close

below 132.94 to confirm a break of the channel base and shift focus back to

132.65-79 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls still need a close above 132.24 to

end correction talk and retain focus on the channel top.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 112.240

*RES 4: 112.350 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.300 High Apr 24 now support 

*RES 2: 112.297 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.290 Monthly High May 30, High Aug 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.275

*SUP 1: 112.240 Low Aug 30 

*SUP 2: 112.231 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 112.215 Low Aug 28 

*SUP 4: 112.190 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: Since sideways trading 112.130-190 ended the contract has attracted

support on dips. Bears continue to look for a close below 112.240 to confirm an

easing of bullish pressure and below 112.215 to shift immediate pressure to

112.175-190 where the 21-DMA is located. Overall below 112.130 is needed to

target 112.050-073. While 112.240 supports immediate focus remains on

112.290-350. O/B studies and the Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below 127.12

*RES 4: 127.99 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 127.83 High Aug 29, Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 127.54 High Aug 30 

*RES 1: 127.40 High Aug 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.30

*SUP 1: 127.12 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 2: 126.90 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 126.80 Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: 126.62 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the break below 127.12 with the

recovery less than ideal for bears. Bears now look for a close below 127.12 to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to shift immediate focus to 126.80-90

where the bull channel base is located. Bulls continue to look for a close above

127.54 to reconfirm focus on 127.83-99 where the Bollinger and bull channel tops

are located. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 99.680-710

*RES 4: 99.710 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 2: 99.668 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.660 High Aug 29 & 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.640

*SUP 1: 99.640 Low Aug 29 & 31

*SUP 2: 99.634 21-DMA, Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 4: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.630-650 came to an end Tuesday with fresh 2mth

highs reconfirming the bullish bias and seeing bulls focused on 99.680-710 where

the bull channel top is noted. Layers of support remain with bears needing a

close below 99.630 to ease bullish pressure and below 99.610 to pressure 55

(99.585) & 100 (99.599) DMAs. The Bollinger top remains the key concern for

bulls.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 100.300

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.321 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - 2017 High Aug 22 - 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.305 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16

*SUP 3: 100.288 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows July & Aug

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on recent 2017 highs with the Bollinger band top

and modestly O/B daily studies remaining key concerns for bulls and the

Bollinger top recently capping. In saying that, bears need a close below 100.300

to ease bullish pressure and below the 100.285 to signal a correction that

initially targets the 100-DMA (100.275). While 100.300 supports bull continue to

target 100.330-370.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 126-250/300 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 127-310 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 127-200 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 127-190 - 2017 High Aug 29 

*RES 1: 127-090 - High Aug 31

*PRICE: 127-070 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 127-020 - Hourly support Aug 31

*SUP 2: 126-300 - Repeated daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 126-250 - Hourly support Aug 25

*SUP 4: 126-210 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 126-300 support confirmed significance having supported

Thursday and potentially providing the base for a retest of 2017 highs. Bulls

look for a close above 127-190 to initially target the 100-WMA and then the

129-060 weekly breakdown level from Oct/Nov 2016. The 126-250/300 support

remains key. Bears need a close below 126-300 to ease immediate bullish pressure

and below 126-250 to shift focus back to 126-110-210.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2.054-088

*RES 4: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 2: 2.155 - Low Aug 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.141 - Hourly resistance Aug 31

*PRICE: 2.127 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.119 - Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support, Low Aug 31 

*SUP 2: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 3: 2.054 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 1.991 - Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The correction from recent 2017 lows looks to be in trouble having

remained capped ahead of the 2.155-180 resistance region. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 2.155 to gain breathing room and above 2.180 to shift focus

back to 2.206-2.229. Pressure has returned to the 2.119 support with bears

needing a close below to add weight to the case for a test of the 100-WMA. A

close below the 100-WMA then initially targets 1.991.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3412.26 

*RES 4: 3480.54 55-DMA

*RES 3: 3467.78 High Aug 23 

*RES 2: 3449.72 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 3439.65 High Aug 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3421.47

*SUP 1: 3412.26 High Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 2: 3395.03 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 3373.52 Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 4: 3363.68 Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 200-DMA Thursday that saw

them gain breathing room but layers of resistance 3449.72-3539.48 remain key.

Bulls now need a close above 3497.29 to confirm breaks of the 55-DMA and bear

channel top and to pressure 3529.99-3539.48. A close above 3539.48 is needed to

shift focus higher. Bears now need a close below 3412.26 to return focus to the

bear channel base 3342.20.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]