Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.Free Access
18 September 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (Z17) Focus On 160.48-90
*RES 4: 162.47 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: 162.15 Hourly support Sept 12 now resistance
*RES 2: 161.82 High Sept 15
*RES 1: 161.51 Hourly resistance Sept 5
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.36
*SUP 1: 161.07 Low Sept 15
*SUP 2: 160.90 Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 160.60 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 160.48 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with focus shifting to 160.48-90 where the
daily bull channel base, 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears now look for a close
below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and hint at a move back to 2017 lows with
below 159.58 needed to confirm. The Bollinger base (161.09) is the key concern
for bears. Layers of resistance are weighing with bulls needing a close above
161.82 to ease bearish pressure and above 162.15 to shift focus higher.
BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Immediate Focus On 100-DMA
*RES 4: 131.60 High Sept 14
*RES 3: 131.52 21-DMA
*RES 2: 131.49 High Sept 15
*RES 1: 131.32 Low Sept 14 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.22
*SUP 1: 131.12 Low Aug 18
*SUP 2: 131.11 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 131.07 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 130.90 Low Aug 16
*COMMENTARY: Having remained heavy last week bears take comfort in Friday's
close below the bull channel base (131.32) which sees immediate focus on the
100-DMA and overall focus on the 55-DMA (130.861). Bears need a close below the
55-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift overall focus back to tests of 2017 lows.
The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above
131.32 to gain breathing room and above 131.64 to return focus to 131.87-98.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.090 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: 112.260 Hourly resistance Sept 8
*RES 3: 112.225 Hourly support Sept 12 now resistance
*RES 2: 112.205 High Sept 14
*RES 1: 112.165 Low Sept 7 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.150
*SUP 1: 112.120 Low Sept 14
*SUP 2: 112.090 Low Aug 25
*SUP 3: 112.052 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 112.015 Low Aug 17
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in a close below the 21-DMA (112.164) Friday
that sees immediate focus on 112.090. Bears now need a close below 112.090 to
shift focus to tests of the 112.001-015 region where the 55-DMA is situated.
Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an issue. Initial resistance is
noted at 112.165 with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure.
Bulls need a close above 112.225 to shift focus back to 112.285-304.
GILT TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On 2017 Low
*RES 4: 127.18 Low Sept 11 now resistance
*RES 3: 126.80 Low Aug 24 now resistance
*RES 2: 125.92 55-DMA
*RES 1: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.17
*SUP 1: 124.00 Low Sept 15
*SUP 2: 123.17 Low Feb 2
*SUP 3: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26
*SUP 4: 121.64 Low June 23 2016
*COMMENTARY: The dramatic correction from 128.24 sees the contract distancing
itself from the 55-DMA as it remains heavy with bears now focused on
122.60-123.17 where 2017 lows are noted. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger
base (125.15) remain issues for bears. Initial resistance is noted at 124.91
with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Close Above 99.490
*RES 4: 99.593 55-DMA
*RES 3: 99.559 200-DMA
*RES 2: 99.540 Low Sept 12 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.490 Low Sept 14 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.460
*SUP 1: 99.450 Highs Jan 30-Feb 2 now support
*SUP 2: 99.430 Repeated daily lows Jan
*SUP 3: 99.410 2017 Low Jan 27
*SUP 4: 99.382 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Price action last week saw June-Sept gains erased in just over a
week with immediate bearish focus now on 99.382-410 where the 100-WMA and 2017
lows are located. Daily studies remain O/S and the Bollinger base (99.518) is
also a key concern for bears. In saying that, bulls now need a close above
99.490 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 200-DMA to shift focus
to 99.593-601 where 55 & 100-DMAs are found.
EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Below 55-DMA To Pressure 100-DMA
*RES 4: 100.322 - Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs
*RES 2: 100.313 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: 100.310 - Repeated daily lows now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310
*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16
*SUP 2: 100.296 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.284 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of recent 2017 highs has taken its toll
with a close below 100.310 that confirms an easing of bullish pressure and sees
focus on the 55-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to initially
pressure the 100-DMA and below 100.275 to shift focus to the 200-DMA (100.255).
Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to return initial focus to 100.320-325.
The Bollinger base (100.304) is the key concern for bears.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 126-180/270 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 127-120 - Low Sept 8 now resistance
*RES 3: 127-050 - Hourly resistance Sept 11
*RES 2: 126-270 - Hourly resistance Sept 12
*RES 1: 126-180 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 & 15
*PRICE: 126-070 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 126-050 - Low Sept 14
*SUP 2: 126-010 - Low Aug 17
*SUP 3: 126-000 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 125-260 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 127-280 continues to pressure the 126-050 support
with bears needing a close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a test
of 2017 lows and a close below 125-170 to confirm. The Bollinger base (125-310)
is the key concern for bears. Initial resistance capped Friday with bulls
continuing to look for a close above 126-180 to ease bearish pressure and above
126-270 to shift focus back to 127-120.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.118-171 Support Region Key
*RES 4: 2.239 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: 2.234 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: 2.216 - High Sept 14
*RES 1: 2.213 - High Sept 15
*PRICE: 2.202 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support
*SUP 2: 2.143 - Hourly support Sept 12
*SUP 3: 2.118 - Hourly support Sept 11
*SUP 4: 2.096 - Hourly breakout level Sept 11
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows is in trouble having been
capped/rejected ahead of the 55 & 100-DMAs. Resistance layers are building and
weighing with bears needing a close below 2.171 to ease bullish pressure, below
2.118 to shift initial focus back to 2.075 and overall focus back to tests of
2017 lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-DMA to initially
pressure the bear channel top (2.261) and hint at a test of 2.290.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3539.48 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 3581.43 High June 26
*RES 3: 3555.37 High June 29
*RES 2: 3539.48 Monthly High July 13
*RES 1: 3532.78 High Sept 15
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3515.55
*SUP 1: 3506.61 Low Sept 13
*SUP 2: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support
*SUP 3: 3480.60 Hourly support Sept 11
*SUP 4: 3467.99 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the key 3539.48 resistance last week bears have
so far failed to manage the close above needed to shift initial focus to 3615.06
and overall focus to 2017 highs (3666.80). Layers of support remain and add
support to the bullish case. Bears still need a close below 3497.29 to ease
bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to initially pressure the 200-DMA
(3434.50). The Bollinger top (3528.96) & O/B studies are concerns for bulls.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
Why Subscribe to
MNI is the leading providerof news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.
Our credibilityfor delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.