MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Bears In Control While 162.15 Caps

*RES 4: 161.62 Low Sept 26 now resistance

*RES 3: 161.44 Hourly support Sept 25a now resistance

*RES 2: 161.31 High Sept 29

*RES 1: 161.14 Hourly resistance Sept 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.00

*SUP 1: 160.79 Low Sept 29

*SUP 2: 160.32 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 160.24 Low Sept 28

*SUP 4: 159.79 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: The bounce Thursday was followed up with a spike higher to end the

week although the lack of follow through is less than ideal. Bulls now need a

close above 161.44 to shift initial focus to 161.75-162.15 and above 162.15 to

target 163.43 Sept highs. While 162.15 caps bears retain the upper hand and look

for a close below 159.58 to confirm focus on tests of 157.55 July lows. Bears

need a close below 160.79 to add weight to their case.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Close Above 131.32

*RES 4: 131.49 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 131.44 High Sept 27 

*RES 2: 131.32 Hourly resistance Sept 27 

*RES 1: 131.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.16

*SUP 1: 131.10 Hourly support Sept 28

*SUP 2: 130.92 Low Sept 28

*SUP 3: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*SUP 4: 130.68 High July 31 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the lack of follow through Friday and failure

ahead of 131.32. Bulls continue to look for a close above 131.32 to gain

breathing room and above 131.64 to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to

131.83-98. The Bollinger base (130.90) remains the key concern for bears and

supported last week. Bears need a close below 131.10 to reconfirm pressure on

130.90 and below 130.90 to target 130.53-68.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.180 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.180 High Sept 25 

*RES 3: 112.169 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.165 High Sept 29 

*RES 1: 112.135 Hourly support Sept 29 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.125

*SUP 1: 112.115 Low Sept 29 

*SUP 2: 112.090 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 3: 112.072 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 112.065 Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of 112.180 with hesitation around

the 21-DMA. The lack of follow through and bounce from 112.090 was less than

ideal for bears who are focused on 112.063-065. Bears need a close below the

55-DMA to hint at a move back to 111.760 with below 112.015 to confirm. Bulls

need a close above 112.180 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially

pressure 112.222-230 where the 100-DMA (112.222) is located.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 125.36-65 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 2: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 124.06 High Sept 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.88

*SUP 1: 123.61 Low Sept 29 

*SUP 2: 123.49 Hourly support Sept 28 

*SUP 3: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28a 

*SUP 4: 123.12 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears and have

added to the correction risk following Thursday's bounce. In saying that, layers

of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above 124.36 now to gain

breathing room and above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to 125.21. Bears now

need a close below 123.61 to retain focus on tests of 2017 lows (122.60).

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.310 Support Holding Firm

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*RES 1: 99.330 High Sept 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining heavy bears have far failed to manage the close

below 99.310 needed to pressure 99.230, Correcting O/S daily studies remain the

key concern for bears as the Bollinger base is currently not an issue. Key

resistance is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain

breathing room. A close above 99.410 is needed to shift initial focus back to

the 21-DMA (99.439) and overall focus to the 200-DMA (99.506).

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.304 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.289 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55-DMA took its toll with a dip below Thursday only

to bounce from 100.300. Bears look for a close below 100.300 to initially

pressure 100.275-289 where the 100-DMA is located. Modestly O/S studies

correcting add support to the bullish case for a return in pressure to

100.325-330 with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to confirm. Bollinger bands

(100.302-322) remain flat as broad sideways trading continues.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On July Low

*RES 4: 126-040 - High Sept 25, 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: 125-140 - Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 1: 125-100 - Hourly resistance Sept 29

*PRICE: 125-010 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 124-280 - Low July 12

*SUP 2: 124-260 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 124-140 - Monthly Lows July 6 & 7

*SUP 4: 124-100 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from fresh 3mth lows last week stalled ahead of the

125-230 resistance Friday with the close leaving the contract looking a little

heavy. Daily momentum divergence, correcting O/S studies and the Bollinger base

remain key concerns for bears who are focused on July lows. Layers of resistance

remain with bulls needing a close above 125-140 to gain breathing room and a

close above 125-230 to hint at a correction back to 126-040/090.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.429 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 

*RES 1: 2.366 - High July 13

*PRICE: 2.361 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 2.341 - Hourly resistance Oct 2 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.314 - Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are attempting to gain traction above the 200-DMA (2.325)

with pressure on 2.366. Bulls look for a close above 2.366 to confirm initial

focus on 2.398-2.437 with above 2.437 needed to return focus to 2017 highs. The

Bollinger top (2.381) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Layers of support are building but the 2.284 support is key with

bears needing a close below to shift focus back to 2.208-2.214.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3615.06 To Focus On 2017 Highs 

*RES 4: 3615.06 Monthly High June 2 

*RES 3: 3608.03 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 3603.95 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3598.06 High June 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3594.85

*SUP 1: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 2: 3575.85 Hourly resistance Sept 29a now support 

*SUP 3: 3569.49 Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 4: 3556.50 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Gains defined last week with the index recovering  to trade at

fresh 4mth highs Friday & pressure 3598.06-3615.06 where bull channel and

Bollinger tops and June highs are located. The Bolli top is the key concern for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Layers of support have accumulated

and add to bullish confidence with bears now looking for a close below 3569.49

to ease bullish pressure and below 3529.19 to pressure key supports.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]