MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

17 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below 162.15

*RES 4: 163.43 Monthly high Sept 8

*RES 3: 163.00 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: 162.89 Low Sept 11 now resistance

*RES 1: 162.44 High Oct 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.44

*SUP 1: 162.40 Hourly resistance Oct 16 now support

*SUP 2: 162.15 High Oct 13 now support

*SUP 3: 161.85 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 4: 161.57 Hourly resistance Oct 13a now support

*COMMENTARY: The 161.03-11 support region provided the base last week for a

break higher Friday and bullish close following a sharp narrowing of Bollinger

bands. The close above 162.15 Tuesday adds to bullish confidence and shifts

bullish focus to tests of 2017 highs. Layers of support are following the

contract higher. Bears now need a close below 162.15 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below 161.57 to shift focus back to 160.59-161.07.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 131.83-98

*RES 4: 131.98 Monthly High Sept 8 

*RES 3: 131.83 High Sept 11 

*RES 2: 131.60 High Sept 14 

*RES 1: 131.74 Low Sept 11 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.67

*SUP 1: 131.57 High Oct 13 now support

*SUP 2: 131.49 Low Oct 16

*SUP 3: 131.37 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 4: 131.25 Hourly support Oct 12

*COMMENTARY: Narrowed Bollinger bands suggested a breakout last week and bulls

have not been disappointed with the close above 131.64 shifting bullish focus to

131.83-98. Above 131.98 is now needed to target WMAs 132.092-132.358. Layers of

support accumulating adds to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close

below 131.49 to ease bullish pressure and below 131.3 to shift focus back to

131.13.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Focus Shifts To Sept High

*RES 4: 112.360 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.285 Monthly high Sept 8 

*RES 2: 112.250 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.245 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.235

*SUP 1: 112.230 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 112.215 High Oct 5 now support 

*SUP 3: 112.185 High Oct 10 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.170 Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Dips found support ahead of the 55-DMA (112.122) last week with

bulls taking comfort in a close above the key 112.230 resistance that sees

bullish focus back to 112.285 with a close above then targeting 112.360. Daily

studies have room to move before O/B becomes an issue. bears now need a close

below 112.215 to gain breathing room and below 112.185 to shift focus back to

112.105-122 where the 55-DMA is situated.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Narrowed Bolli Bands Suggest Breakout

*RES 4: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 2: 124.37 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 124.36 High Sept 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.20

*SUP 1: 123.94 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 123.86 Hourly resistance Oct 16 now support 

*SUP 3: 123.46 Low Oct 13 

*SUP 4: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: The 124.36 resistance confirmed significance with the contract

rallying only to be capped at this level in past weeks. Bulls still need a close

above 124.36 to gain breathing room with above 124.65 to shift immediate focus

to 125.21. Bears now need a close below 123.86 to ease pressure on 124.36 and

below 123.32 to retain focus on 123.12 and overall focus on 122.60 2017 lows.

Very narrow Bolli bands suggest a break out near term.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Pressuring Key Support

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*RES 1: 99.335 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.310

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.310-360 continues with bears needing a close

below 99.310 to reconfirm a bearish bias and target 99.110-230. Key resistance

is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing

room. A close above 99.410 remains needed to shift focus to 99.473-520 where 55,

100 & 200-DMAs are clustered. Momentum studies have corrected their previously

O/S condition and are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Regain Upper Hand

*RES 4: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Sept & Oct now support

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 3: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 100.295 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support at 100.305 has provided the base for a break of 100.315

with bulls now focused on 100.320-325 where 2017 highs are situated. Overall a

close above 100.330 is needed to target 100.360. Bears now need a close below

100.305 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below 100.300 to initially

pressure the 100-DMA (100.295). Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

higher.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below 125-100

*RES 4: 126-020 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-290 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-255 - High Oct 13 

*RES 1: 125-160 - Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance

*PRICE: 125-150 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 125-100 - Low Oct 13

*SUP 2: 125-050 - Hourly support Oct 11

*SUP 3: 124-310 - Hourly support Oct 9

*SUP 4: 124-280 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA (125-150) Friday shifted bullish focus

to the 125-290/090 region where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated after correcting O/S

studies provided support last week. The sell-off Monday was less than ideal and

saw bears gain breathing room, but a close below 125-100 remains needed to shift

focus back to Oct lows so far at 124-220.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus on 2.208-2.245

*RES 4: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 3: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11 

*RES 2: 2.334 - High Oct 13 

*RES 1: 2.314 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: 2.303 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 2: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.237 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.231 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with a break and close below

the 200 & 21 (2.300) DMAs and the key 2.284 support Friday that sees bears

initially focused on 2.208-2.245 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Correcting O/B

studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls continue to look for a close above

the 200-DMA to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 2.402 to return initial

focus to 2.437.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3618.35 

*RES 4: 3674.59 Daily Bull channel 

*RES 3: 3666.80 2017 High May 8 

*RES 2: 3642.47 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3618.35 High Oct 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3606.27

*SUP 1: 3589.98 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 2: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 3575.85 Hourly resistance Sept 29a now support 

*SUP 4: 3569.49 Hourly support Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was again lacking Friday following fresh

5mth highs by the smallest of margins. Bulls look for a close above 3618.35 to

add support to the case for a test of 3666.80-3674.59 where the daily bull

channel top and 2017 highs are situated. Initial support remains at 3589.98 with

bears still needing a close below 3582.07 to confirm a correction and below

3556.50 to confirm focus on 3497.29-3529.19.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]