MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

15 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Pressure Remains On Week's Highs

*RES 4: 164.01 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)

*RES 3: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 2: 163.78 High Dec 11

*RES 1: 163.64 High Dec 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.52

*SUP 1: 163.25 Hourly Breakout level Dec 14

*SUP 2: 162.90 Low Dec 14

*SUP 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5

*SUP 4: 162.61 Daily Bull channel base (off Oct 25 low)

*COMMENTARY: Follow through remains lacking on dips with H18 finding support

around the 21-DMA (162.96) and retaining bullish focus on 163.64-164.01 where a

bull channel top is noted. The Bollinger top (163.86) remains the key concern

for bulls. Bears now need a close below 163.25 to pressure 162.61-90 where the

bull channel base off Oct 25 lows and the 21-DMA are located. Below the channel

base initially targets 161.47-162.10 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 132.74 To Reconfirm Bullish Bias

*RES 4: 132.850 Low May 30 now resistance 

*RES 3: 132.740 High Dec 7 

*RES 2: 132.707 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 132.620 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.480

*SUP 1: 132.250 Low Dec 4

*SUP 2: 132.228 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 132.100 Daily Bull channel base (Off Oct 25 low)

*SUP 4: 131.970 Monthly low Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 21-DMA (132.411) continue to find support ahead of

the 55-DMA with pressure again returning to the 132.62-74 region. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 132.74 to reconfirm a bullish bias initially targeting

the bull channel top (133.022). Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to

pressure layers of support 131.860-132.100 where the bull channel base and

100-DMA (131.899) are noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.190-240 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 112.325 High Apr 18 

*RES 3: 112.270 Monthly high Sept 7 

*RES 2: 112.240 High Dec 7 

*RES 1: 112.190 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.155

*SUP 1: 112.108 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 112.095 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: 112.036 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 112.025 Monthly Lows Oct 26 & Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: Downside follow through remains lacking with H18 bouncing from the

55-DMA to retain pressure on 112.190-240. Bulls still need a close above 112.190

to ease bearish pressure and above 112.240 to reconfirm focus on 112.270-325.

Modestly O/B daily studies are less than ideal for bulls. In saying that, bears

continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and confirm

immediate pressure back on the double daily bottom at 112.025.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: 126.67 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 125.63 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 125.40 High Dec 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.29

*SUP 1: 125.02 Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 2: 124.50 Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 3: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 123.79 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs continue with immediate bullish focus on the bull

channel top and then 126.00-67. The Bollinger top (125.22) and O/B daily studies

are now seen as concerns for bulls with potential to limit follow through. In

saying that, bears now need a close below 125.02 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below 124.22 to return focus to 123.62-75 where the 55-DMA and last

week's low are found.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Above 99.450 Targets 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.484 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.476 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.440

*SUP 1: 99.430 Highs Dec 12 & 13

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has shifted to the 99.450 resistance with bulls taking

comfort in the close above the 100-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to shift focus to 99.476-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

Support layers are building with bears now needing a close below 99.410 to ease

bullish pressure and below 99.371 to hint at a move back to 99.300-310 with

below 99.350 confirming.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Bullish Confidence Grows

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.330 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.325

*SUP 1: 100.320 - Repeated daily highs now support

*SUP 2: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 3: 100.307 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence received a boost with the contract now

pressuring levels last seen in Oct 2016 and the daily bull channel top. O/B

daily studies and the Bollinger top (100.323) are key concerns for bulls with

potential to limit follow through. Bears now look for a close below 100.320 to

ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to 100.305-310 with the

55-DMA noted at 100.308.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above Channel Top

*RES 4: 125-06+ Monthly high Nov 8 

*RES 3: 125-00 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: 124-23+ Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 124-20+ 55-DMA

*PRICE: 124-15 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-08 Low Dec 14

*SUP 2: 124-05 Hourly support Dec 13

*SUP 3: 123-29+ Low Dec 13

*SUP 4: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 124-20+/23+ resistance region where the

55-DMA and bear channel top are situated. Bulls look for a close above the

channel top to shift immediate focus to 125-00/07+ where the 100-DMA is located.

Support layers are building and adding to bullish confidence. Bears now need a

close below 124-08 to ease pressure on the 55-DMA and below 124-05 to reconfirm

focus on the key 123-27/29+ support region.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 2: 2.426 - High Dec 13 

*RES 1: 2.398 - Hourly resistance Dec 13

*PRICE: 2.360 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.348 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.289 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: The 2.437 resistance remains key with topside failures resulting in

sell-offs and bears focused on the 2.273-303 region where key DMAs and Oct low

are located. Layers of resistance building are now weighing with bulls needing a

close above 2.398 to ease bearish pressure and return initial focus to

2.426-437. Overall above 2.437 targets 2017 highs and below 2.273 hints at a

move back to 2017 lows at 2.016 with below 2.207 to confirm.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Topside Hesitation Taking Its Toll 

*RES 4: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 3601.30 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 3581.05 Hourly resistance Dec 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3556.22

*SUP 1: 3531.17 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low) 

*SUP 2: 3530.59 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3519.35 Low Dec 7 

*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through above the 55-DMA has taken its

toll with the index remaining heavy and focus having returned to the lower end

of the defining 3519.35-3620.01 range. Bears need a close below 3519.35 to

confirm breaks of key supports and below 3497.29 to target the bear channel base

(3439.76). Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to Nov

highs with above 3642.10 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]