MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: 162.79 21-DMA

*RES 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 2: 162.66 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*RES 1: 162.37 High Dec 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.78

*SUP 1: 161.46 Daily Bull channel base (off Sept 28 low)

*SUP 2: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 3: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA (162.34)

with the sell-off and bearish close Thursday returning pressure to the daily

bull channel base. Bears continue to look for a close below the bull channel

base to end bullish hopes and shift focus to tests of 159.78-160.26 where

monthly lows are located. Bulls now need a close above 132.37 to ease bearish

pressure and above the 21-DAM to shift focus back to tests of 163.78 Dec highs.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 131.74 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 132.247 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 131.998 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.740 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.610

*SUP 1: 131.520 Low Dec 28

*SUP 2: 131.430 Low Dec 27

*SUP 3: 131.359 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (131.421) remain the key

concern for bears given the bounce from the bull channel base Wednesday. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 131.74 to ease bearish pressure and above the

100-DMA to hint at a correction back to 132.247-250. While 131.740 caps bears

remain focused on 130.920-131.350 where Nov lows are noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 112.035

*RES 4: 112.084 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.980

*SUP 1: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: 111.850 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 

*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low eased bearish pressure

with bulls now needing a close above 112.035 to shift focus to 112.084-120 where

key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case

for a bigger correction. Bears need a close below 111.915 to maintain focus on

111.805-840 where 2017 lows are situated. The Bollinger base (111.910) remains a

key concern for bears recently limiting follow through.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 124.57

*RES 4: 126.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 125.91 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 125.69 High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.16

*SUP 1: 124.90 Hourly resistance Dec 27 now support 

*SUP 2: 124.57 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 124.12 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 124.11 Low Dec 21

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand following the recovery from ahead of

the 55-DMA and aggressive rally Wednesday. Bulls currently focus on the

125.69-00 region where the Dec high and bull channel top are situated. Daily

studies are well placed for gains. Bears still need a close below 124.57 to ease

bullish pressure and shift pressure back to 124.11-12 where the 55-DMA remains.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.410 & 99.450 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.440

*SUP 1: 99.420 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 99.450 is a concern for bulls with the

Bollinger band top (99.462) limiting follow through and daily studies correcting

from modestly O/B. Bears need a close below 99.410 to ease bullish pressure and

below 99.370 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (99.388) and hint at a move back

to 99.300-310 with below 99.350 to confirm. Bulls need a close above 99.450 to

shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Key Support Holding Firm

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.333 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.302 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 was less than ideal for

bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310

support region remains key. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease bullish

pressure and shift focus to 100.295. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to

initially pressure the bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 123-21+

*RES 4: 124-23 High Dec 6

*RES 3: 124-17+ Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 124-14+ 55-DMA

*RES 1: 124-03+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 124-00+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-21+ High Dec 27 now support

*SUP 2: 123-12+ Low Dec 21

*SUP 3: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 4: 122-31+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the bounce Wednesday that saw bearish

pressure eased and focus return to layers of resistance 124-03+/23 where 21 &

55-DMAs and the bear channel top are situated. Bulls need a close above 124-23

to hint at a move back to 125-25+. The 123-21+ support remains key. Bears need a

close below this level to reconfirm dominance and return pressure to

122-31+/123-12+ where the bear channel base is noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Now On 2.344-404

*RES 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 3: 2.479 - High Dec 27 

*RES 2: 2.459 - Low Dec 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.441 - High Dec 28

*PRICE: 2.405 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.404 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.376 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the weekly bear channel top (2.534) combined

with waning momentum provided the impetus for a correction that eased bullish

pressure. Focus returned to 2.344-404 where key DMAs and the bull channel base

are noted. Bears now need a close below 2.344 to confirm breaks and initially

pressure the 200-DMA. Bulls need a close above 2.441 to gain breathing room and

above 2.479 to shift focus higher.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Closes Below 200-DMA 

*RES 4: 3576.49 Hourly resistance Dec 21 

*RES 3: 3551.14 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 3537.66 200-DMA 

*RES 1: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3503.96

*SUP 1: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support 

*SUP 2: 3467.94 High Sept 7 now support 

*SUP 3: 3396.69 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 4: 3363.68 Monthly Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: The close below the weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows and

200-DMA adds weight to the bearish with the close below 3519.35 confirming a

bearish bias and below 3467.94 targets 3363.68 Aug lows. Layers of resistance

accumulating add to bearish confidence with bulls needing a close above the

100-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 3620.01 to gain traction topside.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]