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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

20 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
     BUND TECHS: (H18) 159.66 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 159.66 High Jan 29
*RES 3: 159.33 High Jan 31
*RES 2: 159.00 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: 158.80 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.29
*SUP 1: 158.01 Hourly support Feb 16
*SUP 2: 157.65 Low Feb 16
*SUP 3: 157.42 Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: The bounce Friday was less than ideal for bears but hesitation
ahead of 158.80-159.66 sees bears retain control. Bulls continue to look for a
close above 159.66 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and the daily bear channel
top, shifting focus to 160.83-161.25 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now
look for a close below 158.01 to distance themselves from key resistance. Below
157.26 adds weight to the case for a test of the bear channel base (156.43).
     BOBL TECHS: (H18) 130.540 & 130.770 Key Today
*RES 4: 131.40 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 131.05 Low Jan 18 now resistance 
*RES 2: 130.99 High Feb 5 
*RES 1: 130.77 High Feb 16
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.63
*SUP 1: 130.54 High Feb 15 now support
*SUP 2: 130.34 Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: 130.16 2018 Low Feb 8
*SUP 4: 130.09 Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble 2018 lows last week combined with the bounce
Friday is less than ideal for bulls although follow through above the 21-DMA
(130.65) is lacking. Bulls need a close above 130.77 to confirm a shift in
initial focus to 130.99-131.05. Initial support is noted at 130.54 with bears
needing a close below to gain breathing room and maintain focus on 2018 lows and
then the channel base (129.61).
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Above 111.925 To Gain Bulls Breathing Room
*RES 4: 111.960 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 
*RES 2: 111.925 High Feb 13 
*RES 1: 111.910 High Feb 16
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.900
*SUP 1: 111.860 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 2: 111.840 Low Feb 15 
*SUP 3: 111.835 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 111.800 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low failed to gain traction above the
bear channel top (111.900) with bulls continuing to look for a close above
111.925 to pressure 111.950-960 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears now look for a
close below 111.835 to reconfirm focus on tests of 2018 lows with overall focus
then reconfirmed on the bear channel base (111.580). A close above the 55-DMA
hints at a shift higher in focus with above 112.035 to target 112.240 Dec highs.
GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 120.74 To See Focus Back On 2018 Low
*RES 4: 121.97 High Feb 7 
*RES 3: 121.81 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 121.69 High Feb 9 
*RES 1: 121.44 High Feb 16
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.05
*SUP 1: 120.74 High Feb 15 now support 
*SUP 2: 120.13 2018 Low Feb 15 
*SUP 3: 119.35 Low Apr 29 2016 
*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low Apr 26 2016
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2018 lows was followed up with an
aggressive bounce and relatively bullish close Friday that increases the risk of
a test of 121.81-122.24 where the 21-DMA is noted. A close above 122.24 remains
needed to hint at a move back to 123.12-29 with above 122.65 to confirm. Bears
look for a close below 120.74 to return initial focus to 2018 lows and then
119.35 last seen in April 2016.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.405-450 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 99.427 55-DMA
*RES 3: 99.415 Highs Feb 9 & 12
*RES 2: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.380
*SUP 1: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 99.310 Monthly Low Nov 1
*SUP 4: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17
*COMMENTARY: 99.435 recently provided the cap for a move that now sees overall
bearish focus on 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies have
room to move before O/S is an issue. Layers of resistance are in place with
bulls needing a close above 99.405 to ease bearish pressure and above 99.450 to
end bearish hopes and initially target the 200-DMA (99.464).
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Below 100.305 Targets 100.280-295
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Lows Dec, Jan & Feb
*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*SUP 4: 100.280 - Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support remains key with repeated attempts to break
lower thwarted so far and leaving this level as the 2018 low so far. Bears
continue to look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target
100.280-295.The 100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a
close above 100.325 to target 100.340 last seen in Oct 2016.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 120-27 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 121-31+ Daily Bear Channel top
*RES 3: 121-23 Hourly resistance Feb 6
*RES 2: 121-08 Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 1: 120-27 Low Feb 13 now resistance
*PRICE: 120-12 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-09+ Low Feb 16
*SUP 2: 120-01 2018 Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: 119-28+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011
*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with H18 remaining capped ahead of
121-08 and the sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 7Yr lows. Follow through was
lacking on the dip below the bear channel base last week but bears focus on
117-29/119-24 last seen in 2011. Bulls look for a close above 120-27 to gain
breathing room and above 121-23 to hint at a correction to 122-20/123-05+ with
the 55-DMA at 122-25.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3368.1 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: 3502.5 21-DMA 
*RES 3: 3474.9 Low Feb 5 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3469.2 Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3436.7 High Feb 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3407.8
*SUP 1: 3398.6 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 2: 3368.1 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 
*SUP 3: 3306.6 2018 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 3303.7 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correct from O/S remain the key concern for bears and
support a correction back to 3469.23-3474.86. Above 3474.86 is needed to
initially target DMAs clustered 3523.2-3600.3. Key support remains at 3368.10
with bears needing a close below to end correction talk and retain focus on the
200-WMA (3296.4). Bears need a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows
(3214.3).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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