MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

1 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Remains Supported On Dips

*RES 4: 161.14 100-DMA

*RES 3: 160.36 High Jan 26

*RES 2: 160.30 55-DMA

*RES 1: 159.67 High Feb 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.48

*SUP 1: 159.03 Low Feb 28

*SUP 2: 158.85 Highs Feb 21 & 22 now support

*SUP 3: 158.52 Hourly support Feb 22

*SUP 4: 158.17 Low Feb 21

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the marginal break of 159.67 was less

than ideal with daily studies at O/B levels. The Bollinger top (159.57 remains

the key concern for bulls and limits follow through. The 158.85-159.03 support

region is now key. Bears need a close below 158.85 to shift focus back to 158.17

and below this level to target 157.26-42. A close above 159.67 remains needed to

target 160.30-161.14 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (H18) 121.290 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 131.290 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: 131.200 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.120 Low Jan 24 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.060

*SUP 1: 130.710 Low Feb 23

*SUP 2: 130.610 Lows Feb 21 & 22

*SUP 3: 130.480 Low Feb 20

*SUP 4: 130.340 Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The break of 131.050 lacked follow through Monday with bulls now

needing a close above 131.290 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial

focus to 131.450-520. The Bollinger top (131.070) is the key concern and

currently limits follow through. Bears look for a close below 130.710 to ease

bullish pressure. Below the 160.610 is now needed to return initial focus to

130.160 2018 lows.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Layers Resistance Remain 111.970-112.035

*RES 4: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 3: 112.020 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.000 2018 Highs Jan 3 & 9 

*RES 1: 111.970 High Feb 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.970

*SUP 1: 111.915 Lows Feb 27 & 28 

*SUP 2: 111.895 Low Feb 21 

*SUP 3: 111.890 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.845 Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: Layers of resistance remain 111.970-112.035 with pressure having

return to this region following Wednesday's bounce. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 111.970 to gain breathing room and above 112.035 to target 111.240

Dec highs. Initial support is now noted at 111.915 with bears needing a close

below to ease bullish pressure. Below the 21-DMA hints at a move back to 111.765

with below 111.845 to confirm.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Remains Supported Around 21-DMA

*RES 4: 122.23 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 121.55 High Jan 30 

*RES 2: 121.40 TL off Feb 14 high 

*RES 1: 121.25 High Feb 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.20

*SUP 1: 120.46 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: 119.83 Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: 119.29 Monthly Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the minor bearish key day

reversal Tuesday with bulls taking comfort in support emerging around the

21-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below 120.29 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and return initial focus to 119.29 Feb lows. Bulls still need a

close above 121.55 to add support to the case for a move targeting 55 & 100-DMAs

122.23-57.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Above 99.370 To Target 99.390-420

*RES 4: 99.420 55-DMA

*RES 3: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.370 Low Feb 21 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.340

*SUP 1: 99.335 Low Feb 28

*SUP 2: 99.310 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 3: 99.290 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 99.270 2014 Low Sept 18 2014

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr lows were seen Monday but the lack of follow

through is less than ideal when combined with O/S daily studies correcting and

the Bollinger band base at 99.313. Bulls now look for a close above 99.370 to

shift focus back to 99.390-420 where key DMAs are situated. Support layers are

starting to accumulate as O/S studies correct with bears needing a close below

99.335 to retain the upper hand.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb 

*RES 2: 100.312 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 100-DMA, 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Low Dec 1, 2018 Low Feb 23 & 26

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*SUP 3: 100.280 - Low Oct 6

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support was recently taken out although follow through

has been lacking. In saying that, focus has shifted to layers of support

100.275-295 where the 200-DMA is situated. Layers of resistance have accumulated

with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to confirm breaks of DMAs and return

focus to 100.320-325. Daily studies are now seen correcting from modestly O/S

levels and add support to the bullish case.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: 121-19+ Daily Bear channel top (off Dec 29 High)

*RES 3: 121-08 Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*RES 2: 121-00+ High Feb 26

*RES 1: 120-26+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 120-22+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-08 Lows Feb 23 & 27

*SUP 2: 120-01 2018 Low Feb 15

*SUP 3: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 119-16+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through last Thursday left a double daily bottom

120-01/02 with the recovery capped by the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close above

121-08 to gain breathing room and above the bear channel top to hint at a

correction to 122-10+/20. Failure to trouble 2018 lows so far is less than ideal

for bears with a close below needed to initially test the bear channel base and

hint at a move targeting 117-29/118-24.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.786 Targets 2.609-648

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.989 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.864 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.854 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.831 - Low Feb 26 

*SUP 3: 2.820 - Daily Bull channel base (Off 2017 low) 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who are focused on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above 3.041

is needed to initially focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are

situated. The 21-DMA is currently supporting with the 2.786-854 support region

key. Bears now look for a close below 2.786 to end bullish hopes and shift focus

back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA (2.642) is noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3567.86 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3536.70 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3476.20 High Feb 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3439.00

*SUP 1: 3435.40 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3420.59 Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 3: 3393.28 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: 3368.10 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The marginal break of 3474.85 lacked follow through with the

recovery from 2018 lows potentially in trouble. Bears now need a close below the

21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 3368.10 to return focus to the 200-WMA

(3297.80). Bears then need a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows

(3214.31). Bulls continue to look for a close above 3476.20 to to initially

target DMAs in the 3523.28-3600.36 region.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]