MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

7 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) 21-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: 160.38 High Mar 5

*RES 3: 160.04 Hourly resistance Mar 5

*RES 2: 159.74 High Mar 6

*RES 1: 159.41 Low Mar 5 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.16

*SUP 1: 158.85 Highs Feb 21 & 22 now support

*SUP 2: 158.74 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 158.17 Low Feb 21

*SUP 4: 157.90 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/B daily studies continue to weigh with immediate focus

on 158.74-85 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA

to add weight to the case for a test of 157.26-42. Layers of resistance are

accumulating which adds to bearish confidence. Bulls now look for a close above

159.74 to gain breathing room and above 160.38 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

and shift focus to 161.08-162.04 where the 100-DMA (161.10) is located.

     BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bears Now Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 131.380 High Mar 5 

*RES 2: 131.280 Hourly resistance Mar 5 

*RES 1: 131.090 Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.960

*SUP 1: 130.820 Low Feb 28

*SUP 2: 130.775 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 130.610 Lows Feb 21 & 22

*SUP 4: 130.340 Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has resulted in a bearish close

back below the 55-DMA (131.098). The 21-DMA is key support today. Bears look for

a close below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to 130.610. Layers of

resistance are following the contract lower with correcting O/B studies also

seen weighing. Bulls now need a close above 131.090 to gain breathing room and

above 131.280 to return focus to 131.380-520.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 111.970

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 

*RES 3: 112.106 100-WMA (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 

*RES 1: 112-015 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.000

*SUP 1: 111.985 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.970 Highs Feb 26 & 28 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.945 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.923 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through has taken its toll with the

contract looking a little heavy and the 100-DMA now capping. Bears still need a

close below 111.970 to shift focus back to 111.895-923 where 21 (111.922) & 55

(111.923) DMAs are situated. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to gain

breathing room and above 112.050 to confirm focus on 112.106-145 where 55 &

100-WMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 120.29 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 122.24 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.05 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.02 High Mar 2 

*RES 1: 121.43 Low Mar 2 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.05

*SUP 1: 120.48 Low Feb 27 

*SUP 2: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: 119.83 Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: 119.51 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from failures ahead of the 55-DMA resulted in

a dip below the 21-DMA (120.61) but follow through has been lacking. Bears

continue to look for a close below 120.29 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

return initial focus to 119.29. Bulls now need a close above 121.43 to gain

breathing room and above the 55-DMA to pressure the 100-DMA (122.54) although

the Bollinger top (121.72) remains a concern.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.220

*RES 4: 99.277 55-DMA

*RES 3: 99.270 Lows Feb 2 & 5 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.205 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.170

*SUP 1: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 99.123 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is now pausing ahead of the

21-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.270-277 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support remains key this week. Bears need a close below

99.150 to reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110. Daily studies have room to move

before O/S is an issue.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.240-250 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily highs Nov & Dec 

*RES 2: 100.280 - High Mar 5 

*RES 1: 100.274 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.270

*SUP 1: 100.250 - Lows Feb 26 & 27

*SUP 2: 100.240 - Low Jan 29

*SUP 3: 100.225 - 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 4: 100.217 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging at 100.250 has provided the base for the contract

to gain traction above key DMAs 100.255-262 but follow through remains lacking

with rejections ahead of 100.285 continuing. Bears need a close below 100.250 to

ease bullish pressure and below 100.240 to shift focus back to 100.217-225 where

the 200-DMA is situated. The Bollinger band top (100.274) remains the key

concern for bulls.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 121-19+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 2: 120-24+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)

*RES 1: 120-14+ Hourly resistance Mar 7

*PRICE: 120-06 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 2: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 118-17+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining

capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to

shift initial focus to 121-19+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. The break of

120-00 Monday adds to bearish confidence with a close below 119-21 remaining

needed to confirm focus on 118-17+/24 where the bear channel base that has

defined 2018 so far is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 3.041

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.944 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.859 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-696 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 200-WMA Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: 3441.09 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3420.59 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 3399.61 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 3390.81 High Mar 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3357.86

*SUP 1: 3314.01 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 3298.13 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: Bearish focus returned to the 2018 low & 200-WMA following losses

last week although Monday's bounce was less than ideal. Bears look for a close

below the 200-WMA to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls now look for a

close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above 3476.21 to regain

control and shift focus back to 3517.21-3570.95 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]