MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

9 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 157.69

*RES 4: 158.39 High Jan 23

*RES 3: 158.31 100-DMA

*RES 2: 158.06 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 1: 157.69 High Mar 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.21

*SUP 1: 156.94 Hourly support Mar 8

*SUP 2: 156.19 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 155.25 Low Feb 20

*SUP 4: 154.62 Monthly Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: The correction from March highs so far has found support around the

daily bull channel base off Feb 15 lows and the 21-DMA. Bears need a close below

the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 154.62-155.25 where Feb lows are noted. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 157.69 to regain the upper hand and initially

target 158.31-39 where the 100-DMA is situated. Overall focus shifts to

159.27-58 on a break of 157.69.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Above 130.570 To Target 100-DMA

*RES 4: 131.114 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 130.666 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 130.570 High Mar 5 

*RES 1: 130.400 High Mar 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.310

*SUP 1: 130.220 Hourly support Mar 8

*SUP 2: 130.012 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 129.690 Low Feb 20

*SUP 4: 129.520 Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the aggressive recovery from below the 21-DMA

that sees focus back on 130.400-570. Bulls look for a close above 130.570 to

shift focus to 130.980-131.114 where the 100-DMA is located. The Bollinger top

(130.520) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

Bears now look for a close below 129.84 to confirm focus on retests of 129.360

Feb lows.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.835 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.025 Low Nov 30 now resistance 

*RES 3: 111.906 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 111.875 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 111.835 High Mar 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.820

*SUP 1: 111.810 Hourly support Mar 8 

*SUP 2: 111.760 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.715 Low Feb 27 

*SUP 4: 111.660 Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The dip was aggressively reversed having tested the bull channel

base, 21 (111.736) & 55 (111.729) DMAs. Immediate pressure remains on 111.835.

Bulls need a close above to gain the upper hand and initially target the

100-DMA, although the bull channel top may cap along the way. The Bollinger top

(111.836) is the key concern. Bears continue to look for a close below 111.715

to confirm breaks of DMAs and to shift overall focus to 111.590 Jan lows.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 120.29 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 122.52 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 122.02 High Mar 2 

*RES 2: 121.93 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 121.64 High Mar 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.47

*SUP 1: 120.89 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 2: 120.48 Low Feb 27 

*SUP 3: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: 119.83 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from failures ahead of the 55-DMA resulted in

a dip below the 21-DMA (120.66) but follow through has been lacking. Bears

continue to look for a close below 120.29 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

return initial focus to 119.29. Bulls take comfort in Thursday's bounce but

still need a close above Y122.02 to pressure the 100-DMA although the Bollinger

top (121.84) remains a concern.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.220

*RES 4: 99.275 100-DMA

*RES 3: 99.270 Lows Feb 2 & 5 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.194 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.190

*SUP 1: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 99.137 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is pausing ahead of the 21-DMA.

Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

and shift initial focus back to 99.270-275 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. The

99.150 support remains key this week. Bears need a close below 99.150 to

reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110. Daily studies are now back at more

neutral levels.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 100.285

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.285 - Repeated Daily highs Nov & Dec, High Mar 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.280

*SUP 1: 100.263 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.255 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.250 - Lows Feb 26 & 27

*SUP 4: 100.240 - Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging at 100.250 has provided the base for the contract

to gain traction above key DMAs 100.255-262 but follow through remains lacking

with rejections ahead of 100.285 continuing. Bears need a close below 100.250 to

ease bullish pressure and below 100.240 to shift focus back to 100.218-225 where

the 200-DMA is situated. The Bollinger band top (100.279) remains the key

concern for bulls.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 121-14+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 2: 120-17+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)

*RES 1: 120-14+ Hourly resistance Mar 7

*PRICE: 120-04 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 2: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 118-12+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining

capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to

shift initial focus to 121-14+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. The break of

120-00 Monday added to bearish confidence with a close below 119-21 remaining

needed to confirm focus on 118-12+/24 where the bear channel base that has

defined 2018 so far is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 3.041

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 1: 2.906 - High Mar 6

*PRICE: 2.870 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.842 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 2: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 3: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-696 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Layers of Resistance 3436.39-3476.21 Key

*RES 4: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 3: 3441.09 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3436.39 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high 

*RES 1: 3420.59 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3413.28

*SUP 1: 3390.81 High Mar 6 now support 

*SUP 2: 3354.61 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: 3312.66 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the failed attempt to take out 2018 lows left a

double daily bottom in place with focus now on 3436.39-3476.21 where the bear

channel to is noted. Bulls still need a close above 3476.21 to shift initial

focus to key DMAs 3510.31-3570.95. Support layers are now building with bears

needing a close below the 200-WMA (3298.41) to target 2017 lows (3214.31) and

then the bear channel base (3155.08).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]